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Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado Threat Returns Tuesday



A significant outbreak of severe storms, including destructive tornadoes, is expected again this week, beginning across parts of the central Plains and Mississippi valley on Tuesday.
This new threat comes just days after deadly tornadoes devastated communities in the central Plains and Southeast. Unfortunately, some of those towns could again be struck by strong storms this week.
Beginning late today and tonight, a small area from eastern Kansas to western Kentucky could see a few localized gusty storms before a more widespread threat unfolds.
More thunderstorms are expected to erupt ahead of a strong cold front from the central Plains through the mid-Mississippi valley and into the Ohio valley Tuesday and Tuesday night.
All of the thunderstorms will produce driving downpours and frequent, deadly lightning, while several will also be capable of generating powerful wind gusts and destructive hail.
Unfortunately, conditions will also be ripe for a few tornadoes. While the threat exists for multiple twisters, just one tornado passing through a populated area can cause severe destruction.
Cities at especially high risk for severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday night include Little Rock, Ark., Springfield and St. Louis, Mo., Indianapolis, Ind., and Cincinnati, Ohio.
Powerful storms could also reach as far north as the I-80 corridor, including Chicago, Ill., South Bend, Ind., and Toledo, Ohio.
The threat for severe weather won't end there. By Wednesday, parts of the Tennessee valley, mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians will be at risk for powerful thunderstorms.
Stay with AccuWeather.com early this week for more on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Bron:Accuweather

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Wild April Weather to be Followed by Wicked May


This map looks a lot like what has been going on during much of April. As a result, May will likely bring more of the same, but also more severe weather farther to the north.

Severe weather experts at AccuWeather.com are forecasting the intense weather outbreaks in the U.S. to continue beyond April into much of May.
According to Severe Weather Expert Meteorologist Henry Margusity, "We see no let-up in the weather pattern that has led to the outbreaks this month."
A pronounced temperature contrast often produces strong storm systems.
May is notorious for severe weather and tornadoes in its own right as warmth builds from the strengthening sun, while the upper atmosphere and the low-level air over the northern latitudes remain chilly.
The jet stream tends to hover close to the temperature contrast.
We cannot say that there is a direct correlation between La Nina and a particular outbreak. However, the ocean water temperature anomaly in the Pacific tends to lead to a strong polar jet stream.
While a strong jet stream is a common occurrence in the spring, the presence of a strong, ongoing La Nina has that strong jet stream on steroids.
A strong jet stream is a key contributor to severe weather and tornado outbreaks.
While the ongoing La Nina may weaken slightly in the coming months, it is still rather strong at present. It could continue to fuel, in an indirect way, frequent strong storm systems and the severe thunderstorms they often breed.
As the chilly air around the Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. and neighboring Canada retreats northward, the risk of severe weather will increase in these areas.
While this too is part of the normal northward progression of severe weather in the spring, the strong La Nina driving the strong jet stream may continue to make severe weather matters much worse than normal.
Two other factors, such as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and intrusions of dry air from the West, are always players in severe thunderstorms.
The Gulf of Mexico is much warmer than average this spring. The extra warmth translates to higher moisture levels (higher dew points) over downwind areas of the land.
In contrast, the air is extremely dry (low dew points) over southern High Plains as evidenced by the drought and wildfires in the region.
Both of these secondary factors, combined with the strong jet stream may be cranking up the potential energy to be released in the form of violent storms.
It is possible that smoke from the wildfires may be limiting severe weather incidents (and tornadoes) over the favored area of southern High Plains.
However, it may be that the air is just too dry and too extensive in that area, pushing the boundary of the dry and moist air (dry line) farther east, closer to the middle and lower Mississippi Valley.
This boundary is often the fuse for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Throw in the strengthening sun and building warmth to the mix during May and we could really have some ferocious storms on our hands.

Bron: Accuweather