Orkaan Tomas: Nieuwe bedreiging voor Haiti?

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Curaçao, Bonaire en Aruba klaar voor tropische storm

WILLEMSTAD - Curaçao bereidt zich voor op de tropische storm Tomas. Dat verklaarde minister-president Gerrit Schotte vrijdagavond op een ingelaste persconferentie in Willemstad.

Tomas zal naar verwachting in de nacht van zondag op maandag (lokale tijd) op ongeveer 250 km ten noorden van Bonaire, Curaçao en Aruba passeren. Dit zal gepaard gaan met hevige buien en veel wind.
Schotte verklaarde dat de draaiboeken van het rampenteam in werking zijn gesteld. Dat betekent onder meer dat de shelters in staat van paraatheid worden gebracht en vissers wordt aangeraden de zee te mijden.

Ook op de andere eilanden wordt de ontwikkeling van Tomas nauwgezet in de gaten gehouden. Voor een aantal Caraïbische eilanden is een orkaanwaarschuwing uitgevaardigd. Het Amerikaanse Orkaancentrum verwacht dat Tomas zal uitgroeien tot een sterke orkaan van vierde categorie.
© ANP

nu.nl

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Op zondag 31 oktober 2010 11:45 schreef Disorder het volgende:
Cat. hoeveel nu? Waar vind ik dat online?

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Tomas is weakening, but there is growing concern that the hurricane will regain strength and target Haiti later this week.
Tomas tore through the Windward Islands on Saturday, strengthening in the process and leaving a trail of damage.
Tomas was a Category 2 hurricane as it battered the Windward Islands Saturday night. Disruptive wind shear (strong wind shear high in the atmosphere) has since caused Tomas to weaken into a minimal Category 1 hurricane.
Tomas could weaken further into a tropical storm over the next day or two.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest statistics on Tomas, including its current location and intensity.
The wind shear is also causing rain squalls associated with Tomas to stream eastward over the Lesser Antilles, hampering cleanup efforts in Tomas' wake.



The disruptive wind shear will lessen at midweek, opening the door for Tomas to strengthen into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Later in the week, there is growing concern that Tomas will deviate off its westward track and target Hispaniola (the island that Haiti and the Dominican Republic call home). Tomas may even take aim at Hispaniola after first bypassing the island to the south.
As stated by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, "It would be a horrible scenario if Tomas were to turn to the north and slam Haiti as a hurricane." Haiti has yet to recover from the devastating January earthquake and is now fighting a cholera epidemic.
Tomas will be forced to curve towards Haiti by the jet stream, which is expected to sink southward and usher a reinforcing shot of chilly air across the East later in the week. Another scenario is that Tomas makes that curve, but targets Jamaica or Cuba.
The hurricane would take a track towards Central America if it misses the connection with the jet stream; however, this solution is becoming less likely.

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The islands of St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines continue to assess damage and clean up after Hurricane Tomas pounded the Lesser Antilles as a strengthening Category 1 hurricane with 90 - 95 mph winds on Saturday. St. Lucia was hardest hit, with fourteen people dead, many more missing, and damage estimated at $100 million--about 10% of the nation's GDP. Damage on neighboring St. Vincent was estimated at $62 million, which is 4% of that nation's GDP. The storm damaged 1,200 houses, and the northern half of the island, where most of the crops are, was badly hit, with no banana trees left standing and the plantain crop wiped out. Banana production employs 60% of the workforce on St. Vincent, and accounts for more than 50% of their exports. Also hard-hit was Barbados, where damage estimates are at $55 million, 1.5% of the nation's GDP. Tomas may be the most damaging storm to affect the island since Hurricane Janet of 1955. The havoc wreaked by Tomas in the Lesser Antilles makes is likely that the name Tomas will be retired from the list of active hurricane names in the Atlantic.

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Tomas Could Hit Haiti with Devastating 1 to 2 Feet of Rain
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Haiti has had a devastating year with the earthquake and a more recent cholera outbreak. This video has the details on how Haiti has been affected and takes a look at what the worst case scenario would be for the nation with Tomas.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is still forecasting Tomas to slam into earthquake-ravaged Haiti as a hurricane late this week, bringing yet another disastrous blow to the impoverished nation.

While powerful winds are certainly a major concern for the more than 1 million people still living in makeshift shelters, it's Tomas' flooding rain that will be the greatest threat to life and ultimately the biggest disaster since January's earthquake.

The storm is currently predicted to make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane over Haiti Friday. Even if the center of Tomas were to track completely west of Haiti without a landfall, it will still impact the nation with flooding rain.

Given its expected track, speed and intensity, AccuWeather.com Expert International Forecaster Jim Andrews advises that rainfall on the order of 2 to 4 inches is likely in Haiti's capital city of Port-au-Prince, where an estimated 1.3 million residents displaced by the earthquake are living in tents and under tarps.

Rainfall on this order in the city alone will be enough to cause flooding and create a mess for these people.

To make matters worse, rainfall totals in the mountains that border Port-au-Prince to the south and southeast will be even higher, ranging from 4 to 8 inches or more, and will result in significant runoff down the slopes and into the city as well as surrounding populated areas.

Tomas is expected to start bringing increasing winds and rain to Haiti's southern coast late Thursday before making landfall Friday.
What has AccuWeather.com meteorologists even more concerned is the potential for Tomas to track more slowly across Haiti than currently expected. Slower movement could easily lead to double the rainfall.

In other mountainous areas of Haiti where Tomas' winds flow uphill, especially across the south, rainfall totals will be on the order of a foot or more regardless of the storm's speed.

Adding to an already disastrous situation is the fact that widespread deforestation has taken place across Haiti. On exposed slopes, runoff will be quicker, more significant and carry with it mud, rocks and other debris that will cover anything in its path.

This threat applies at least to part of the area that drains into Port-au-Prince.

As for winds, it may only take minimal tropical storm-force gusts to destroy makeshift shelters earthquake victims are living in. The current forecast track brings Tomas west of Port-au-Prince. If it passes close enough, this track will put the city in the right, front quadrant of the storm with the strongest winds.

Andrews says that even if the earthquake had never hit Haiti in January, Tomas on its own would be a disaster for the nation given the current expectations for the storm.

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Haiti Faces Life-Threatening Flooding from Tomas


Flooding rain accompanying Tropical Storm Tomas threatens to bring another disastrous blow to Haiti tonight into Friday.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects Tomas to pass through the Windward Passage, which separates Cuba and Haiti, tonight into Friday. Tomas should strengthen through this time, regaining Category 1 hurricane status.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center gives the latest statistics on Tomas, including its location and intensity.
Even though Tomas is not expected to make a direct landfall on Haiti, torrential rainfall will still spread over the nation and neighboring parts of the Dominican Republic.
After the rain arrives today, the potential exists for over a foot of rain to fall in the mountainous areas of these two nations. Disastrous flash flooding and mudslides are sure to result in and below the hillsides.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Heather Buchman reported that "Adding to an already disastrous situation is the fact that widespread deforestation has taken place across Haiti."
Buchman went on to say that "On exposed slopes, runoff will be quicker, more significant and carry with it mud, rocks and other debris that will cover anything in its path."



With Tomas expected to remain offshore, the zone of torrential rain and damaging winds will now expand and encompass the eastern tip of Cuba.
On the other hand, Haiti's capital city of Port-au-Prince should be spared the worse. In this city, an estimated 1.3 million residents displaced by the devastating January earthquake are still living in tents and under tarps.
Compared to what would have resulted if Tomas tracked close or onto the Haitian coast, fewer rain squalls will now invade Port-au-Prince as Tomas passes by.
Still, it would take just one rain squall to cause winds to gust to minimal tropical storm force to destroy the makeshift shelters earthquake victims are living in.