Hurricane EARL richting Oostkust V.S.

quote:

Op maandag 30 augustus 2010 22:19 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Hier nog even een loop van Earl:

[ afbeelding ]

quote:

EARL's path shifts further west, problems for Carolina's
Things are starting to look a little more ominous for portions of the U.S. East Coast as powerful hurricane Earl churns in the southwest Atlantic. The NHC reports that top winds remain at 135 mph- a category four hurricane. The discussion from Dr. Pasch, the forecaster tonight, was excellent. He outlines the fact that Earl could be in almost ideal conditions for future strengthening but has backed off, just a little, of the previous forecast of 150 mph. None the less, Earl is expected to be a very intense hurricane as it approaches North Carolina these next few days.

High surf will begin impacting portions of the Southeast over the next couple of days as large swells from Earl radiate out from its strong core. Then, it all comes down to how far west Earl gets before it turns north and then east of north. The NHC track has shifted west ever so slightly once again- enough so that there is cause for concern that hurricane conditions could impact the NC Oter Banks. Any further shift west before Earl fades back to the east would mean a direct hit over Cape Hatteras or even points west. People in eastern North Carolina should begin thinking about their hurricane plans- how to get boats moored, etc. That time might be coming.

After a really close call or possible landfall in NC, the next problem is New England. Right now, the core of Earl is forecast to remain off the Massachusetts coast, but again, the critical aspect of the track has to do with when Earl turns east of its north progress. The later this happens, the more people will be affected- possibly by a rather strong hurricane. People with interests from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia need to be watching the progress of Earl very closely from here on out

quote:

Op dinsdag 31 augustus 2010 09:04 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
[ afbeelding ]

Ze hebben de koers toch naar het westen verzet. Nu lijkt hij dus echt de oostkust van de VS te gaan raken

quote:

Op dinsdag 31 augustus 2010 09:10 schreef Gunner het volgende:

[..]

Met welke kracht?

quote:

Op dinsdag 31 augustus 2010 09:12 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]



Categorie 3
(zie de OP van dit topic )

Zeker als het pad vanavond opnieuw naar het westen wordt bijgesteld wordt het een linke soep daar.

quote:

Op woensdag 1 september 2010 07:47 schreef Fargo het volgende:
Hebben de kenners hier enig zicht op de laatste ontwikkelingen? Dinsdag vlieg ik naar NY, moeten wij ons 'zorgen' maken?

quote:

Earl comes on the heels of Hurricane Danielle, blamed for rough surf and riptides in New York and New Jersey last weekend.

The Big Apple could be in for more bad weather with Earl expected to churn off its shore at the weekend, but the NHC declined to speculate how close it will come.

Barry Baxter, a hurricane centre meteorologist, said: "We just don't know.

"It's too early at this point. We're just telling everybody to keep their eyes on the track and just keep checking back."

quote:

'Orkaan Earl niet naar Amerikaanse kust'

MIAMI/RALEIGH - De angst voor een landing van de orkaan Earl op de Amerikaanse zuidoostkust is woensdag afgenomen. De gewijzigde weersomstandigheden sturen het oog van de orkaan volgens waarnemers boven zee langs de kust naar het noordoosten, weg van de kust van met name de staat North Carolina.

Toch kan de Amerikaanse oostkust wel te maken krijgen met de gevolgen van Earl, zoals buitengewoon hoge golven. Daarom heeft North Carolina de noodtoestand uitgeroepen.

Alle bewoners en bezoekers van het eiland Hatteras aan de oostkust worden geëvacueerd. Ook op het zuidelijker gelegen eiland Ocracoke is de evacuatie begonnen.

Earl heeft woensdag aan kracht gewonnen. Met windsnelheden van 215 kilometer per uur valt de orkaan nu in klasse 4. Dit is het een-na-hoogste niveau van de Saffir-Simpsonschaal, die de kracht van orkanen weergeeft.

Earl trok eerder onder meer langs Sint Maarten, Saba en Sint Eustatius, maar richtte daar weinig schade aan dankzij de noordelijke koers.

quote:

Can NYC handle a hurricane?

The National Hurricane Center warns that Hurricane Earl may swing by dangerously close to the U.S. East Coast before curving back out to sea. While the odds are it won't strike New York City directly, such an event is not unprecedented, and the city has plans in place to evacuate — and to hunker down — if need be.

Problem is, there would be precious little time to prepare. And while the forecast suggests it is very unlikely Hurricane Earl will strike Manhattan with more than a glancing blow, a direct hit by a hurricane is ultimately inevitable, scientists say.

Because hurricanes move more quickly and become very difficult to predict once they head north of the Carolinas, experts say there might be just hours to issue evacuation warnings before a storm hits.

Compounding this, the Big Apple has one of highest population densities in the nation – more than 8 million people live in New York City. Based on studies by the Army Corps of Engineers, officials have determined that vulnerable, low-lying areas in and around New York City and metropolitan New Jersey would need to start heading out sooner than what is typically ordered in Florida and other hurricane-prone states.

Frankly put: There would not be enough time to get everyone out. Disaster plans for New York City focus therefore on getting people out of low-lying areas that might be inundated by storm surges, and having others stay put or move to safe locations within the city.

History as a lesson

Since records have been kept in the 1700s, dozens of hurricanes have affected the greater New York City area. A handful were major events. Scientists have geologic evidence that other major hurricanes have hit the region in prehistory.

One event, in 1821, offers a telling lesson. On Sept. 3 that year, a major hurricane slammed without warning into Manhattan. "Everything was flooded south of Canal Street," according to historical accounts. The East River and the Hudson River converged over lower Manhattan, but that part of the island had not yet been built up. The storm hit at low tide. Had the tide been high, the flooding would have been far worse, researchers say.

Late in the summer of 1938 (dit is de FORGOTTEN STORM OF 1938) , a storm that started off the coast of Africa arrived unexpectedly along the coast of New Jersey, where 140 mph (225 kph) winds tore up boardwalks. The storm raced north at more than 50 mph (80 kph) and uprooted trees and destroyed houses on Long Island. Since no warnings were issued, people fled only when they saw the storm approaching, and by the time the storm tore through much of the northeast, an estimated 682 to 800 people were killed, according to "Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938" (Back Bay, 2004).

More recently, Hurricane Carol made landfall as a Category 3 storm on Long Island and Connecticut in 1954. In 1960, Hurricane Donna created an 11-foot (3.4 meters) storm surge in New York Harbor, causing extensive pier damage, according to the New York City Office of Emergency Management. Hurricane Gloria in 1985 would have been "catastrophic" if it had hit at high tide and been just slightly closer to the city. There have been several other near-misses in the past six decades.

Scientists note that since so few hurricanes actually strike the New York area, it's hard to say when it will happen again. But history suggests it is only a matter of time before a major hurricane makes a direct hit on Manhattan.

What would happen

The Army Corps has thoroughly mapped what areas could flood. New York Harbor would act like a funnel for an incoming storm surge, and water would have nowhere to go and could be pushed up as high as a 3-story building.

"A major hurricane could push more than 30 feet of storm surge into some parts of New York City," according to the Office of Emergency Management.

The region's major airports are among the locations that could find themselves submerged by the sea. Nursing homes on Coney Island — challenging facilities to evacuate — are at great risk.

New York City has plans in place that, if necessary, would call for evacuations by zones, at the direction of the mayor. [Residents can find their zone here.] The plan focuses on early use of mass transit and discourages evacuation by car. Complicating evacuations is this simple fact: High winds and flooding can precede a major hurricane by hours, bringing a halt to evacuation efforts well before the center of a storm arrives.

Could get worse

Today, with climate change and rising seas levels, the effects of a hurricane could be even worse for New York City, and could become increasingly devastating as time goes on.

A 2001 study conducted by Columbia University scientists looked at several impacts of climate change on the New York metropolitan area. The researchers projected a rise in sea level of 11.8 to 37.5 inches (29.9 to 95.2 centimeters) in New York City and 9.5 to 42.5 inches (24.1 to 107.9 cm) in the metropolitan area by the 2080s.

"With sea level at these higher levels, flooding by major storms would inundate many low-lying neighborhoods and shut down the entire metropolitan transportation system with much greater frequency," said Vivien Gornitz, one of the Columbia University scientists working with the New York City Department of Environmental Protection to better understand what hurricanes would do to the city.

While a hurricane would undoubtedly spell disaster for the city, Manhattan is currently better prepared to face a heavy storm than it has been in previous years, according to Nicholas Coch, a Coastal and Estuarine Geology professor at the City University of New York and an expert on natural disaster preparedness.

"City officials definitely have an improved perception of how to handle a hurricane, especially regarding evacuation plans," Coch told Life's Little Mysteries.

If a hurricane were to hit Manhattan, the island would not necessarily have to be evacuated, said Coch, who reasons that moving people from the lowest areas to higher ground would suffice in keeping them safe – although this should ideally be done the day before the anticipated storm.

In fact, if Earl does come New York's way, it is most likely that beach communities in Suffolk, Long Island, would be hit the hardest, Coch said. Both Suffolk and Nassau county officials say that preparations have been made in case Earl strikes, with updated evacuation plans, potential shelter sites and a new, high-speed notification 'Code RED' system that alerts residents of impending weather emergencies by phone, e-mail and/or text messages.

quote:

CNN BreakingNews

Tropical storm warning issued for coast of Long Island in N.Y. ahead of Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl strengthens, winds now 145 mph, cat 4; Hurricane watches now posted for parts of Mass. and Long Island. Pressure now 928 mb.

Evacuation orders underway for some parts - more follows

quote:

Op donderdag 2 september 2010 11:05 schreef kwiwi het volgende:
Hmm hoor net dat delen van NC al geëvacueerd worden. M'n vader woont daar en we gaan er over een paar dagen naartoe, dus hoop dat Earl zich een beetje inhoudt. En dat de boot die in VA aan de kust ligt heel blijft..
Wordt weer veel het nieuws volgen de komende dagen dus..

quote:

Katastrophen Alarm USA
"Millionen-angst"
"Monster Earl"
"16meter höhe wellen"
"320km/h böen

quote:

Officials consider more evacuations
Ocracoke, N.C. — As Hurricane Earl continued to churn toward the Eastern Seaboard, Dare County officials and town leaders planned to meet Thursday morning to determine if mandatory evacuations should be issued for areas north of the Oregon Inlet, including Kill Devils Hills.

On Wednesday, Dare and Hyde counties ordered evacuations of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands on the Outer Banks.

Carteret County emergency management officials also announced a mandatory evacuation for visitors and residents of the Bogue Banks area from Atlantic Beach to Emerald Isle, effective Thursday morning.

As of 5 a.m., Earl was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. It was located about 410 miles south of Cape Hatteras and was moving north-northwest at 18 mph.

Gov. Bev Perdue declared a state of emergency on Wednesday and warned people along the coast not to let down their guard, despite projections that the Category 4 storm will not make landfall there.

“There is still concern that this track, the core of the storm, could shift a little farther to the west and have a very significant impact on the immediate coastline Our present track keeps it off shore, but you never know,” National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.

Earl’s first encounter with the U.S. mainland should come around midnight Thursday, as the storm is forecast to just off Cape Hatteras, bringing wind gusts of up to 100 mph and several feet of storm surge both from the Atlantic and the sounds to the west of the islands.

Early Thursday though, the Outer Banks had only light winds and high clouds as the eye of Earl was hundreds of miles south of Cape Hatteras. Those conditions were expected to deteriorate throughout the day, said National Hurricane Center forecaster Todd Kimberline.

Despite it’s strength, the National Hurricane Center says it's expected to fluctuate to a Category 3 storm still before it passes Cape Hatteras with winds around 115 mph.

A hurricane warning was in effect for all of the Outer Banks and Core Banks and extends from from the Bogue Inlet, north of Camp Lejeune, to the Virginia border.

Hundreds leave ahead of Earl

Emergency officials said they expect Earl to bring heavy rain, wind gusts up to hurricane strength and a 3- to -4-food storm surge that will likely create flooding on local roads, including the narrow N.C. 12, making travel unsafe.

Sgt. Jeff Gordon, a spokesman for the State Highway Patrol, urged people to leave storm-threatened areas well before Earl hits.

"Some of the problems that we experience sometimes is when everybody tries to (leave) at one time," Gordon said. "This has been a highly reported storm. I hope that the public heeds the warnings and always takes precautionary measures as far as moving inland."

The State Emergency Operations Center urged those leaving the coast to register with the American Red Cross "Safe and Well" program which helps keep families and friends informed about one another during emergencies.

Earl's impact father south is still expected to be felt in the form of dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Red flags were flying high at Wrightsville Beach as a warning.