Hurricane Season 2010 # 2

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Op donderdag 26 augustus 2010 19:30 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
`Laat die hier maar komen

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Intensity forecast for Danielle
Once Danielle recovers from its current troubles with dry air, warm 29°C SSTs combined with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots should allow the storm to intensify. There is substantial dry air to the west and south of Danielle, though, and it is quite possible that some unexpected increase in shear could inject dry air into the hurricane at any time over the next few days. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that this shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next three days, but then rapidly rise to a high 20 - 40 knots on Sunday. Danielle will probably reach peak intensity Saturday night or Sunday morning, near the time of its closest approach to Bermuda. NHC is giving Danielle a 41% chance of becoming a major Category 3 hurricane.

Track forecast for Danielle
On Saturday, a trough of low pressure that is expected to move off the East Coast of the U.S. and Canada should begin pulling Danielle due north, with the hurricane passing east of Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 25% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Danielle, and a 1% chance of getting hurricane force winds. This is a substantial reduction from the odds given in the 5am forecast, which were 37% and 6%, respectively. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting 15 - 20 foot waves this weekend for Bermuda's offshore waters. The most likely scenario once Danielle passes north of Bermuda is for the storm to recurve out to sea, missing the U.S. and Canadian coasts. All of the computer models currently call for this scenario. The possibility of Danielle stalling north of Bermuda and potentially tracking northwest towards the U.S. and Canadian coasts, as called for by the NOGAPS model in some of its runs yesterday, is looking less likely.

History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 5 - 10% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. However, Danielle will bring high surf conditions to the U.S. East Coast beginning this weekend. The latest wave forecast from NOAA's Wavewatch III model (which uses the GFS model as its prediction for the position and intensity of hurricanes), calls for waves from Danielle to begin hitting the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. These waves will build to 7 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from Northern Florida to North Carolina by Sunday. The latest near shore water forecast for Cape Hatteras calls for 5 - 8 foot waves Saturday, and 7 - 10 feet on Sunday.

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Op vrijdag 27 augustus 2010 00:25 schreef Co_OL het volgende:
Earl gaat naar New York
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Cat3/4 gezien het warme water
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Op vrijdag 27 augustus 2010 13:18 schreef SoldMayor het volgende:
Zo wordt het toch nog een druk seizoen als Fiona vandaag ook nog komt. En dan moet de september nog komen. Dan zijn vaak de meeste stormen.

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Op zaterdag 28 augustus 2010 01:38 schreef Stienn het volgende:
Gaat Earl langs St. Maarten komen? Lijkt me aan de ene kant wel vet om een Hurricane mee te maken, alleen denk ik dat ik er snel genoeg van zal hebben.

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Storm Earl koerst richting Sint Maarten

De Franse overheid heeft een stormwaarschuwing ingesteld voor het eiland Sint Maarten. Dit in verband met de komst van de tropische storm Earl. Dat heeft het Amerikaanse Orkaancentrum (NHC) vrijdag gemeld.

Sint Maarten bestaat uit een Frans en een Nederlands deel. De Franse overheid heeft de waarschuwing uitgevaardigd. Earl is nu nog een tropische storm, maar volgens meteorologen zal hij uitgroeien tot een orkaan. Of Sint Maarten ook te maken zal krijgen met wind van orkaankracht, laat zich nog niet voorspellen. Earl wordt maandag verwacht op het eiland.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/b(...)Maarten__.html?p=3,2

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Op zaterdag 28 augustus 2010 17:53 schreef Stienn het volgende:

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Ah, dus maandag kan het los gaan hier.

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Track forecast for Earl
Earl is being steered to the west by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest, likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning. However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.

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Op zaterdag 28 augustus 2010 17:53 schreef Stienn het volgende:

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Ah, dus maandag kan het los gaan hier.