WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
Step Aside Roubini - FX Concepts' John Taylor Is The New Dr. Doom: "2011 Will Be Worse Than 2008"
John Taylor, CIO of FX-Concepts, the world's biggest FX fund, is now officially the new Dr. Doom. We we gladly pay $29.95 to watch him live on a CNBC octobox that features him, Liesman, Cramer, Pisani, Burnett, A. Joseph Cohen, David Bianco and the guy who said AIG was going to $1,000, with occasional eye-rolling from the Fast Money brigade.
We’re Still Dancing – Round II
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer
US employment numbers turned up last month with the help of some temporary $20 per hour jobs in the decennial census, at the same time retail sales jumped 1.6%, way outpacing any plausible rise in personal income. “Hooray!” cried the markets, the US consumer is alive and spending again. American trade figures deteriorated sharply as well, even though the oil import bill was down, as other imports grew rapidly while exports languished, making it very clear that the US had reclaimed its old position as the world’s consumer of last resort. The US recovery is now looking more like one of the standard post-World War II exercises with a distinct resemblance to the two “jobless” ones that started in 1992 and 2002. As a result of the very low interest rates, non-existent inflation, and rather weak dollar, the economy is in a sweet spot, a Goldilocks situation for corporations and wealthy families. Unfortunately this positive spell does not cover a significant portion of the country’s economic actors. The losers are the middle and lower-middle classes as well as the state and local governments and those who depend on them for jobs or their largesse. They are the first to lose as a result of the shrinking availability of debt financing – the de-leveraging of America. This economic recovery is different because these groups are already struggling even though liquidity is super-plentiful and riskfree rates are near zero. They are too leveraged to borrow more. Usually those who are going to be the victims don’t begin getting into trouble until Fed tightening starts, but this time they are in bad shape already.
The global risk markets are taking advantage of this excess liquidity and the Goldilocks situation. As the market players, whether in corporate or individual form, are among the blessed, they can and are rebuilding their leverage and playing the game. It’s like 2008 never happened, just a one in a thousand perfect wave, and the market participants have forgotten, just like they did in 1998 and 2003. As there is incredible liquidity available, those who can get their hands on it will use it. The authorities who saved the economy from destruction in 2008 are either busy patting themselves on the back or fighting for their own national interest. The Eurozone countries are blaming the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ hedge funds and free market philosophy, while, in many cases, the US authorities are in the forefront of the ‘perfect storm’ crowd – just a nip or a tuck here or there and everything will be fine. China has its own view of things and the other Asians are acting as though they were on a different planet – “what happens in Europe and North America stays there and has no impact on us.” This serious reluctance to replace parochial issues with a genuine desire to restructure world finance assures us that the next crisis will be far worse than the one in 2008. Although it seemed that the world was terrified by that collapse, it is now clear that the authorities and the players were not so bothered that they changed their stripes. The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.
John Taylor, CIO of FX-Concepts, the world's biggest FX fund, is now officially the new Dr. Doom. We we gladly pay $29.95 to watch him live on a CNBC octobox that features him, Liesman, Cramer, Pisani, Burnett, A. Joseph Cohen, David Bianco and the guy who said AIG was going to $1,000, with occasional eye-rolling from the Fast Money brigade.
We’re Still Dancing – Round II
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer
US employment numbers turned up last month with the help of some temporary $20 per hour jobs in the decennial census, at the same time retail sales jumped 1.6%, way outpacing any plausible rise in personal income. “Hooray!” cried the markets, the US consumer is alive and spending again. American trade figures deteriorated sharply as well, even though the oil import bill was down, as other imports grew rapidly while exports languished, making it very clear that the US had reclaimed its old position as the world’s consumer of last resort. The US recovery is now looking more like one of the standard post-World War II exercises with a distinct resemblance to the two “jobless” ones that started in 1992 and 2002. As a result of the very low interest rates, non-existent inflation, and rather weak dollar, the economy is in a sweet spot, a Goldilocks situation for corporations and wealthy families. Unfortunately this positive spell does not cover a significant portion of the country’s economic actors. The losers are the middle and lower-middle classes as well as the state and local governments and those who depend on them for jobs or their largesse. They are the first to lose as a result of the shrinking availability of debt financing – the de-leveraging of America. This economic recovery is different because these groups are already struggling even though liquidity is super-plentiful and riskfree rates are near zero. They are too leveraged to borrow more. Usually those who are going to be the victims don’t begin getting into trouble until Fed tightening starts, but this time they are in bad shape already.
The global risk markets are taking advantage of this excess liquidity and the Goldilocks situation. As the market players, whether in corporate or individual form, are among the blessed, they can and are rebuilding their leverage and playing the game. It’s like 2008 never happened, just a one in a thousand perfect wave, and the market participants have forgotten, just like they did in 1998 and 2003. As there is incredible liquidity available, those who can get their hands on it will use it. The authorities who saved the economy from destruction in 2008 are either busy patting themselves on the back or fighting for their own national interest. The Eurozone countries are blaming the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ hedge funds and free market philosophy, while, in many cases, the US authorities are in the forefront of the ‘perfect storm’ crowd – just a nip or a tuck here or there and everything will be fine. China has its own view of things and the other Asians are acting as though they were on a different planet – “what happens in Europe and North America stays there and has no impact on us.” This serious reluctance to replace parochial issues with a genuine desire to restructure world finance assures us that the next crisis will be far worse than the one in 2008. Although it seemed that the world was terrified by that collapse, it is now clear that the authorities and the players were not so bothered that they changed their stripes. The cycles and very simple fundamentals are enough to predict that 2011 will be worse than 2008. The medium-term cycles tell us that there is a very high probability of a serious bout of risk aversion beginning in the next five trading days and continuing into the week of May 3. This is likely to be most apparent in Europe, but it should also impact the equity and commodity markets around the world. The stream of strong economic and corporate news, plus continued benign inflation outside of Asia should assure us of a further risk rally, starting in May and running through July and possibly into early August. This decline after the August peak should be far more serious and we believe it will be the start of a major market rout continuing into the middle of 2011, at a minimum. The deflationary recession that will accompany this market collapse, at least in the developed world, will put extreme pressure on the Eurozone and the EMU structure. The second half of this decade will witness a very different world.
http://www.mrwonkish.nl Eurocrisis, Documentaires, Economie
Welnee, Wall Street zakt maat 1.5% en tikt volgende week vast gewoon weer een nieuwe high weg.quote:Op dinsdag 27 april 2010 19:38 schreef Q.E.D. het volgende:
Maar nu echt?
http://www.rtl.nl/%28/fin(...)17/0427_0900_aex.xml
Never in the entire history of calming down did anyone ever calm down after being told to calm down.
Ik gleuf er niets van, helemaal nietsquote:Op dinsdag 27 april 2010 20:36 schreef Arcee het volgende:
[..]
Welnee, Wall Street zakt maat 1.5% en tikt volgende week vast gewoon weer een nieuwe high weg.
I don't know if God exists, but it would be better for His reputation if He didn't.
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
quote:wo 28 apr 2
Vooral financiële waarden krijgen rake klappen, Shell is de grote uitzondering
Spanje doet AEX de das om
door DICK HUSSAARTS
AMSTERDAM - De Amsterdamse effectenbeurs leek de dag nog aardig af te gaan sluiten met maar een beperkt verlies. Maar vlak voor het slot verlaagde S&P de kredietwaardigheid van Spanje, en hup, daar denderde de beurs weer omlaag.
De AEX sloot daardoor per saldo 0,9% lager op 345,7 punten. Rond elf uur dook de hoofdgraadmeter even onder de 342 punten. De Midkap-index deed het beduidend slechter en zakte 1,9% naar 561,3 punten. Wel was het verlies eerder nóg een stuk groter.
De volgende twee armoezaaiers komen eraan
I don't know if God exists, but it would be better for His reputation if He didn't.
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
Netjes, goede toespraak zeg!quote:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
inderdaad.quote:
Vooral die verplichtte marktwerking
I don't know if God exists, but it would be better for His reputation if He didn't.
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
Als de HEER zou mogen stemmen, dan is het zeer onwaarschijnlijk dat hij op het CDA zou stemmen
Vandaag de S&P al weer boven de 1200.quote:Op dinsdag 27 april 2010 21:02 schreef Bruno25 het volgende:
Ik gleuf er niets van, helemaal niets
Never in the entire history of calming down did anyone ever calm down after being told to calm down.
Yep. De politiek zou wel wat mensen zoals Rob Wijnberg kunnen gebruiken.quote:
Niet meer aanwezig in dit forum.
crash in het najaar van 2010 met opleving rond kerst.
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Aandelen nu verkopen of houden? Ik weet niet of het nou zo geweldig is wat je er voor terugkrijgt (¤).
shoarma is lekker
Iddquote:
Prachtig hoe Kroes gegeneerd kijkt als ze wordt gefilmd.
@aarsschimmel Je kunt ook je euro's omzetten in dollars of Zwitserse franken.
Please Move The Deer Crossing Sign
En hoe diep gaat ie deze keer worden?quote:Op vrijdag 30 april 2010 12:39 schreef icecreamfarmer_NL het volgende:
crash in het najaar van 2010 met opleving rond kerst.
Experience is what you get when you don't get what you wanted
Take my advice ... I don't use it anyway...
Een goede Fok! Search
Een goede Fok! Search
Take my advice ... I don't use it anyway...
Een goede Fok! Search
Een goede Fok! Search
Het is niet moeilijk te zien hoe dit gaat eindigenquote:Rally has junk trading at close to face value
By Anousha Sakoui in London and Nicole Bullock in New York
Published: May 2 2010 20:32 | Last updated: May 2 2010 20:36
Prices of junk bonds have rallied so strongly over the past year that a key market benchmark suggests that they are collectively trading at near 100 per cent of face value, a level not seen since before the credit crisis took hold in 2007.
US junk bond prices, measured in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index, last week reached a price of 99.55, the closest it has been to par – that is 100 per cent of face value – since June 2007.
That marks a sharp recovery in investor confidence in junk bonds – the borrowings from companies below investment grade – from a nadir struck on December 12, 2008, when the index hit a record low of 54.78.
“The return close to par is symbolic,” said Martin Fridson, chief executive of Fridson Investment Advisors, which specialises in high-yield bonds.
“With the strengthening of the US economy and signs accumulating of revival in consumer demand, money is coming out of money market funds where yields are abysmally low, and going into high-yield bonds.
“Investors wouldn’t do that if they did not have confidence these companies would repay them.”
The European bond market has also staged a big recovery in recent weeks, but bonds are still collectively priced at a near 10 per cent discount to par. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s index of European currency junk bonds reached a high of 92.71 last week, its highest level since November 2007.
pop-up: junk bondsWhile the recovery in European bonds has not been as fulsome as the US market, it is recovering off lower levels. The European index reached a low on December 15, 2008, of 48.02.
Mr Fridson said the lower prices in European junk bonds is a reflection of weaker growth expectations for the European economy. Concerns of a potential default of Greece also hit European junk bonds last week.
Richard Phelan, head of high-yield research at Deutsche Bank, said that despite the sovereign concerns, there was strong interest in high-yield bonds as an asset class, leading to a recovery in prices and new bond sales.
Companies have sold risky debt in record volumes this year. Global issuance of junk bonds totalled $67.8bn (£44.4bn) at the end of the first quarter – a record high for the first three months of the year, according to Thomson Reuters.
Last week alone saw $9bn sold, including a $600m issue from clothing company Phillips-Van Heusen and ¤500m (£435m) from the French chemicals group Rhodia.
“Investors see the high-yield market right now like a patient that’s out of the operating room and been given a clean bill of health. Confidence is being driven by improving corporate quality,” said Mr Phelan.
However, he said after such a rally there were fewer opportunities for investors to generate outperformance.
FT.com
. Typisch een gevolg van rentes kunstmatig veel te laag houden. Investeerders steken hun geld nu in de grootst mogelijke bagger om toch maar een procentje yield te krijgen. Men rationaliseert het (zoals bij elke bubble) met een mooi verhaal, in dit geval vermeend economisch herstel. Maar de winst/risico verhouding is natuurlijk helemaal niet gunstig. Dus bij het volgende zuchtje tegenwind worden dit weer tientallen/honderden miljarden verliezen/ afschrijvingen.
En de FED keek toe en deed niets.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
In die zin is het wel jammer dat men niks leert van de geschiedenis. Elke keer als er een crisis is komen we in een soortgelijke situatie en word er een soort hand van god verwacht die de economie wel even zal aandraaien. Rente excessief laag blijven houden voor een lange periode tot we eindelijk die groei in banen zullen krijgen. Je zou haast denken dat ze daar met vingertjes gekruisd elke maand gespannen afwachten op de unemployment data en hopen dat het eindelijk beter gaat.quote:Op maandag 3 mei 2010 08:58 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Men rationaliseert het (zoals bij elke bubble) met een mooi verhaal, in dit geval vermeend economisch herstel. Maar de winst/risico verhouding is natuurlijk helemaal niet gunstig. Dus bij het volgende zuchtje tegenwind worden dit weer tientallen/honderden miljarden verliezen/ afschrijvingen.
En de FED keek toe en deed niets.
Misschien kun je concluderen dat de crisis niet zwaar genoeg was omdat men te snel is terug gevallen in oude fouten.
People once tried to make Chuck Norris toilet paper. He said no because Chuck Norris takes crap from NOBODY!!!!
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Megan Fox makes my balls look like vannilla ice cream.
Stay away in May and remember, come back in September ofzoietswashet?
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIl_jGh-LWE" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Afleidingsmanoeuvre</a>
Ben me suf aan het zoeken op wat spaanse sites maar kan niks vinden over een persconferentie....quote:Op dinsdag 4 mei 2010 15:43 schreef Dirk-Kuijt het volgende:
Gerucht: Spanje om 16.00 uur een persconferentie
http://www.mrwonkish.nl Eurocrisis, Documentaires, Economie
Volgens BNR nieuws, Spanje ontkent dat ze hulp gaan vragen aan de EU... Krijg er een heel hoogquote:
gevoel van.
tevens TVP
Spanje is wel voorzitter van de EU momenteel, dus ze moeten wel veel contact hebben met 'Europa'. Zolang Ierland, Italië en Portugal zich koest houden, valt het met Spanje vast ook nog wel mee.
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