Hurricane Season 2009 #2:

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Dodental Vietnam loopt op naar veertig

Het dodental van de tropische storm Mirinae in Centraal-Vietnam is gestegen tot minstens veertig. Er zijn ook elf vermisten. In verschillende steden traden rivieren buiten hun oevers. Straten staan meer dan een meter onder water. Alleen al in de Vietnamese provincie Phu Yen vielen volgens een krant dertien doden. De nationale autoriteiten gaven nog geen cijfers over de gewonden vrij.

De storm gaat gepaard met windvlagen met een snelheid tot 133 km per uur en hevige stortregens. Maandagochtend kwam Mirinae aan land in de provincies Phu Yen, Binh Dinh, Quang Ngai en Khanh Hoa. Meer dan 150 huizen zijn vernield. Het dak van verschillende scholen en ziekenhuizen is weggewaaid. Minstens 900 hectare rijstvelden en 830 hectare akkers zijn vernield of staan onder water.

Vietnam Airlines heeft maandag 34 vluchten van en naar de centrale regio van Vietnam geannuleerd waardoor 2.000 passagiers in de problemen kwamen. Meer dan 27.000 mensen zijn geëvacueerd. De overheid waarschuwt de 104.000 vissers in 18.000 visbootjes om bescherming te zoeken.

Toen Mirinae vorig weekend over de Filipijnen raasde, was ze nog een taifoen en stierven er negentien mensen. Volgens de autoriteiten valt de dodentol in Vietnam relatief mee omdat de mensen op hun hoede zijn sinds de taifoen Ketsana, die in september 172 levens eiste in Vietnam

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Late tropische storm Ida bedreigt Nicaragua

Voor de Caraïbische kust van Midden-Amerika heeft zich een wervelstorm ontwikkeld. Volgens het Amerikaans orkaancentrum in Miami bedreigt de tropische storm 'Ida' vooral Nicaragua. Hij zal donderdagmorgen lokale tijd mogelijk op orkaansterkte het vasteland in Nicaragua treffen en dan verder richting Honduras trekken.

Overstromingen
De regering in Managua heeft uit voorzorg een stormwaarschuwing gegeven en liet noodverblijven voor duizenden mensen in de regio voorbereiden. Er wordt vooral rekening gehouden met overstromingen en grondverschuivingen, waardoor in de regentijd de meeste mensen om het leven komen.

Rustig orkaanseizoen
Het orkaanseizoen, dat officieel tot eind oktober duurt, is dit jaar in de hele regio betrekkelijk goed verlopen. In de Caraïben, waar het voorbije jaar verschillende stormen vooral in Cuba en Haïti zware verwoestingen hebben aangericht, heeft dit jaar geen enkele orkaan het vasteland getroffen.

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2009 A YEAR OF "IT ONLY TOOK ONE"

For much of the hurricane season, nothing really caused much alarm except for perhaps hurricane Bill which did impact the U.S. East Coast and the Canadian Maritimes. No hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. this season but it all came down to one storm that made all the difference: Ida. The late season hurricane brought floods and loss of life to portions of Central America before making landfall as a tropical storm along the central Gulf Coast. From there, it transitioned in to a powerful extra-tropical storm that lashed the Mid-Atlantic states for several days. In the end, Ida will be remembered as THE storm of 2009. Do not be surprised if it ends up as a $1 billion event, perhaps more. Miles and miles of beach were eroded away and in some areas, homes and businesses fell in to the sea. In Rodanthe, NC, the highway was all but washed away and will take some time to repair. The power of one storm and its legacy in how we remember the 2009 hurricane season is proof once again that it does not take an over-active season to cause big trouble. At least we are done, there will be no more hurricanes this season which officially ends on the 30th. However, the threat of Nor'easters, which Ida was compared to and perhaps technically was, will remain throughout the upcoming winter season. From Long Island to Cape Hatteras, the shore line remains very vulnerable and any subsequent storms will only add to the problems.

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ANOTHER COASTAL STORM SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS, NOT GOOD FOR BATTERED EAST COAST BEACHES

Though not tropical in nature, it looks like another coastal storm is in store for portions of the East Coast over the weekend and early next week. A shot of energy coming in from a powerful Pacific storm will develop a low pressure area at the surface in the northern Gulf of Mexico, bringing more rain to the Deep South and Southeast. It looks like it will then take a similar track the Ida did and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast late this weekend. While not as powerful a storm as the Nor'easter that Ida became, any storm is going to be a problem for the beaches ravaged by numerous coastal non-tropical storms this season. Be aware of the situation and if you have property along the coast from North Carolina to Long Island, you might want to keep an extra close eye on this situation. We are in for a rough winter as the type of pattern we are in will favor the development of these Nor'easter events and when the cold air gets involved, look out, major snow storms are likely. For now, people who just dealt with the Ghost of Ida just might be dealing with yet another significant erosion event with the coming storm. I will post more about it over the coming days as the computer models resolve its track and intensity better.

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Op dinsdag 24 november 2009 14:14 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Gaat lekker mag onze kant wel even opkomen

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Nida was strengthening to a super typhoon near Guam when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image on November 25, 2009. MODIS acquired this image 1:55 p.m. local time (03:55 UTC). In the six-hour time span during which this picture was taken, Nida strengthened from a category 3 typhoon to a category 4 super typhoon. On November 25, Unisys Weather reported that Nida had maximum sustained winds of 150 knots (280 kilometers per hour) with gusts up to 180 knots (335 kilometers per hour).

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Living on an island in the balmy tropics of the western Pacific, the residents of the Philippines are accustomed to tropical storms. The storms can form at any time of the year, and they frequently impact the island nation as they track west across the Pacific. This image illustrates how much rain the Philippines received from tropical cyclones between May and October in 2009. In that period, 12 named storms poured heavy rain over the Philippines. Two storms, Ketsana and Parma, brought unusually heavy flood-inducing rain within a two-week span at the end of September and early October. The two storms alone left at least 460 people dead.

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Forecasts 2010

An early forecast for 2010 calls for an “above-average” hurricane season, according to the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.

The team expects 11 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes — ones with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Today’s prediction marks the first time William Gray’s team at CSU has provided a range of storms in its December early season forecast. The report is the team’s 27th year of hurricane seasonal predictions.

Because the report is based on Atlantic basin conditions, the team says its forecast could change substantially by the start of the hurricane season, which runs on June 1 to Nov. 30.

Gray’s team plans to list specific numerical forecasts in its next forecast on April 7.

“The Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins,” Phil Klotzbach, the team’s leader, said in a release.

A weakening El Nino will allow more hurricanes to form, the team predicts. El Nino is a pattern of warmer-than-usual water in the Pacific Ocean, near the equator. The pattern creates more wind shear over the Atlantic, which breaks up tropical storms as they form.
“We anticipate the current El Nino event to dissipate by the 2010 hurricane season,” Gray said in the release, “and warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2010 — conditions that contribute to an above-average season.”

Their forecast is based on a statistical prediction scheme that uses 58 years of “hindcast” data. Over that time period, the scheme correctly forecasted above- or below-average seasons in 44 out of 58 years, the team said.

For the 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season, the CSU hurricane forecast team expects:

*A 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

*40 percent chance (the long-term average is 31 percent) of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula.

*A 40 percent chance (the long-term average is 30 percent) of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville.

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Op zondag 13 december 2009 22:31 schreef SpeedyGJ het volgende:
Zo dan, dat gaat nog lekker zeg

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WARNING: ProxyAV has detected a virus/PUS in this
file!

File has been dropped.


2009-12-14 09:15:52+01:00CET
ProxyAV (Version 3.2.3.1(39265)) - http://www.BlueCoat.com/
Antivirus Vendor: Kaspersky Labs
Scan Engine Version: 8.0.1.23
Pattern File Version: 091214.055900.3364740 (Timestamp: 2009.12.14 05:59:00)


Virus/PUS: "Trojan.JS.Agent.awm" found!

www.weerstation-holwerd.nl

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Tropische cycloon Laurence stormt af op West-Australië

De tropische cycloon Laurence zet met een snelheid van 230 kilometer per uur koers naar de kust van Kimberly in West-Australië. Het is de eerste cycloon van het seizoen die de Australische deelstaat bedreigd. Bewoners van de kust hebben de raad gekregen om zich voor te bereiden op de cycloon.

De tropische storm bevindt zich momenteel op 55 kilometer ten noorden van Kuri Bay en 155 kilometer ten noordoosten van Cockatoo Island. Verwacht wordt dat ze vandaag het eiland en de Koolaneilanden bereikt met windstoten van honderd kilometer per uur. De hevige wind zal volgens de laatste voorspellingen ook gepaard gaan met stevige buien.

De bewoners van de eilanden hebben de raad gekregen om zich voor te bereiden op de storm. De plaatselijke luchthaven wordt alvast gesloten en de aboriginalgemeenschap in Oombulgurri sluit ook haar deuren. Laurence onstond zondag boven de Timorzee en is in kracht toegenomen van categorie één naar categorie vier.