Is Buy&Hold dood ?

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With the market still down some 42% in the last year, financial pundits continue to eulogize "buy and hold" investing as a dead strategy, insinuating that trading is the only way to make money going forward.

"Dr. Doom" himself, Marc Faber, even told CNBC recently: "The Warren Buffett approach [of buy and hold] is dead and it's been dead for ten years and it's going to be dead for another ten years."

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Op maandag 9 maart 2009 16:41 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29452493/
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Op maandag 9 maart 2009 16:44 schreef Lemmeb het volgende:

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Die vent heet niet voor niks Dr. Doom. Heeft hij überhaupt weleens iets positiefs te melden? Magoed, hij heeft wel een sterk punt, als we bijvoorbeeld naar Japan kijken.

Als ik SeLang was zou ik in elk geval niks overhaasten. Maar dat hoef ik hem niet te vertellen geloof ik, daar was hij zelf al veel langer achter.

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Op maandag 9 maart 2009 16:41 schreef pberends het volgende:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29452493/
[..]

With the market still down some 42% in the last year, financial pundits continue to eulogize "buy and hold" investing as a dead strategy, insinuating that trading is the only way to make money going forward.

"Dr. Doom" himself, Marc Faber, even told CNBC recently: "The Warren Buffett approach [of buy and hold] is dead and it's been dead for ten years and it's going to be dead for another ten years."

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Op maandag 9 maart 2009 16:47 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

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Yep

Nikkei Index
[ afbeelding ]

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Op maandag 9 maart 2009 16:44 schreef pberends het volgende:

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Marc Faber is extreem genuanceerd hoor, hij is vaak juist heel erg positief over veel dingen.

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Graham Shows S&P 500 Still Too High as Buffett Loses


By Alexis Xydias and Michael Tsang

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing and mentor of Warren Buffett, would find most U.S. stocks expensive even after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 56 percent in 17 months.

Graham measured equities against a decade of profits to smooth out distortions, a method that shows the S&P 500 trading at 13.2 times earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller. At the bottom of the three worst recessions since 1929, the average ratio fell below 10. To reach that level, the S&P 500 would sink another 27 percent.

The rout set off by the subprime-mortgage collapse in August 2007 has fooled investors from Legg Mason Inc. money manager Bill Miller to Traxis Partners LP’s Barton Biggs, who said shares were cheap as they continued to fall. Even Buffett, the billionaire chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc., who worked for Graham in the 1950s, was taken by surprise. He said he was buying on Oct. 17. The S&P 500 lost 28 percent since then, ending March 6 at 683.38.

“We are in a depression, therefore I would expect Graham’s and Shiller’s earnings ratios to get down to a single figure,” said Robin Griffiths, who first studied Graham in 1966 and helps oversee $15.5 billion at Cazenove Capital Management in London. “If it is a bad depression, it could take the S&P 500 to 400 or 500. It is clearly becoming better value as the market comes down, but it is nowhere as cheap as it can get.”

The S&P 500 added 1.4 percent to 692.8 as of 10:16 a.m. in New York. Energy companies gained as oil rose to a six-week high.

Value Investing

Graham, who died in 1976 at 82, and David L. Dodd laid out the principles of value investing in “Security Analysis,” the 1934 textbook used by Buffett to help transform his Omaha, Nebraska-based company into an investment firm with a market value of $112 billion. Dodd died 21 years ago at 93.

Value investors seek out companies priced below their forecast of future earnings to compensate for the possibility of losses. The discount represents the so-called margin of safety that Graham’s followers demand before buying a stock. Graham avoided calculating values according to a single year of profits, instead urging investors to examine periods as long as a decade to erase anomalies.

During the worst bear markets, stocks don’t reach “bargain basement prices” until they fall to 10 times profit or less using Graham’s method, according to James Montier, Societe Generale SA’s London-based global equity strategist. That translates to a price of about 500 for the S&P 500, based on combined per-share earnings of at least $50.

Graham’s Disciple

Buffett, 78, who attended Graham’s Columbia University classes and worked for him at New York-based Graham-Newman Corp. in the 1950s, misjudged the severity of the credit market freeze, which spurred the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II. Berkshire’s market value decreased $119 billion since its peak in December 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

On Oct. 17, Buffett wrote in the New York Times that he was buying U.S. shares. The 263-point slump since then extended the index’s decline. Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders on Feb. 28 that he made a “major mistake” buying shares in Houston-based ConocoPhillips when oil prices were near a peak last year. Berkshire’s net income fell 96 percent in the fourth quarter.

Buffett told CNBC today that the economy “has fallen off a cliff” and that efforts to stimulate a recovery may lead to inflation higher than the 1970s. While he stood by his Times column, he said, “I just wish I wrote ithttp://forum.fok.nl/rde/post_reply/1262857 a few months later.”

‘Quite Suspect’

Investors who valued companies based on earnings or forecasts covering just one year have been burned as equities kept dropping. The S&P 500 fetched 16.2 times its companies’ 12- month profits on Jan. 7, the lowest since at least 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index has since plunged as much as 25 percent to a 12-year low.

“A lot of earnings estimates on which the market valuations are based are quite suspect,” said John Carey, who oversees $8 billion at Pioneer Investment Management in Boston. “You have to adjust what you see out there for reality. I remember thinking that a stock selling at 10 times earnings was expensive” in the 1970s and 1980s, he said.

Wall Street strategists are confident the U.S. market has tumbled enough to start a rally.

The S&P 500 will rise to 1,007 by year-end, according to the average estimate of 11 equity strategists tracked by Bloomberg. The projection represents a rise of 47 percent from last week’s closing price and an increase of the price-earnings ratio to 18.88 times operating profit, based on the strategists’ average per-share earnings estimate.

Time to Buy?

Some measures suggest U.S. stocks are cheap. Profits as a percentage of the index’s value climbed to 6.96 percentage points above the yield on 10-year Treasuries, the biggest advantage since at least 1962, monthly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The S&P 500 also fell below its price trend dating back to 1900 in the past month to levels not seen since 1995, adjusting for inflation, according to Jim Reid and Nick Burns, credit strategists at Deutsche Bank AG in London. They’re still not convinced that’s low enough to ensure equities will gain.

“We are now entering the ‘cheap’ side of historical valuations,” Reid and Burns wrote in a report dated March 3. “Cheap is helpful but not a reason to suggest an imminent sustainable bounce.”

‘Very, Very Cheap’

Biggs, co-founder of New York-based hedge fund Traxis and formerly chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, said in February last year that U.S. stocks were “very, very cheap” and the market was “at or very close to an important bottom.” The S&P 500 subsequently fell 49 percent.

Legg Mason’s Miller posted the worst performance of his 27- year career in 2008 as his $3.28 billion Value Trust trailed 99 percent of competing mutual funds. Miller, who guided his fund to a better performance than the S&P 500 for a record 15 years ending in 2005, said in December that U.S. stocks could rise as much as 20 percent this year. The S&P 500 instead is off to the worst start in its 81-year history.

In the previous three economic contractions since 1929 that lasted as long as the current one -- the Great Depression, the oil shock in 1973-1975 and the 1981-1982 recession -- the S&P 500 bottomed only after the index fell to 8.74 times profit on average, based on data compiled by Yale’s Shiller.

To match those levels, the S&P 500 would have to fall 21 percent to 537.95, based on analysts’ profit estimates for 2009 that strip out the impact of non-operating charges such as investment losses and writedowns.

“Our view on valuations is yes, they are cheap,” said Joost van Leenders, an Amsterdam-based strategist at Fortis Investments, which oversees $243 billion, and uses Graham’s method as one way to measure stocks against earnings. “But they can become cheaper.”

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:21 schreef ilona-scuderia het volgende:
Ik heb ¤50.000 omgezet in goud, dat zouden meer mensen moeten doen...

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:21 schreef ilona-scuderia het volgende:
Ik heb ¤50.000 omgezet in goud, dat zouden meer mensen moeten doen...

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:16 schreef Plus_Ultra het volgende:
Ik dacht dat de formule voor de prijs van een aandeel was

P₀ = Dividend in jaar 1 + P₁.

Hoe verhoudt zich dat met jouw formule

koerswinst + totaal ontvangen dividend = totale bedrijfswinst.

Herschrijven geeft

P₁ - P₀ + Totaal Dividend = totale bedrijfswinst.

Maar die totale bedrijfswinst is toch altijd toekomstgericht dus onzeker en niet te voorspellen?

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:21 schreef ilona-scuderia het volgende:
Ik heb ¤50.000 ¤48.000 omgezet in goud, dat zouden meer mensen moeten doen...

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 13:56 schreef lutser.com het volgende:

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Laten we dat allemaal doen, dan is er geen geld meer maar hebben we wel allemaal een klompje goud en zijn we voor altijd gelukkig.

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:21 schreef ilona-scuderia het volgende:
Ik heb ¤50.000 omgezet in goud, dat zouden meer mensen moeten doen...

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Op dinsdag 23 augustus 2011 02:21 schreef ilona-scuderia het volgende:
Ik heb ¤50.000 omgezet in goud, dat zouden meer mensen moeten doen...

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Het grappige is dat mensen nu denken dat Buy&Hold dood is, terwijl ikzelf precies de tegenovergestelde mening heb: Buy&Hold was dood op het moment dat de markt in de jaren '90 extreem overgewaardeerd werd. Maar wat mij betreft is Buy&Hold nu uit de dood herrezen. Hoewel ikzelf nog even wil wachten met kopen, in de hoop dat we nog echt lage waarderingen gaan zien, denk ik dat mensen die nu aandelen kopen voor lange termijn (of zelfs al iets eerder zijn ingestapt rond oktober) gewoon een heel fatsoenlijk rendement gaan maken over de komende 20 jaar.

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Exact op dit soort momenten weet je dat de kans groot is dat we een (tijdelijk) top te pakken hebben. Middelkoop waarschuwde trouwens al eerder via twitter dat de goudmarkt overbought was en voorlopig te mijden.