[US 2008] Amerikaanse Senaatsverkiezingen

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What movement there has been over the past few days has mostly been in North Carolina and Kentucky. In the former race, Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad clearly seems to have backfired, and Kay Hagan has emerged with a 7-point lead in the latest polls from PPP and SurveyUSA. When coupled with the strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Dole will need a miracle to retain her seat.

In Kentucky, on the other hand, polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA suggest Mitch McConnell standing a safe enough distance away from the brink, with leads of 7 and and 8 points, respectively.

So that sets the following scene: Democrats will almost certainly pickup the Republican-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado and New Hampshire, although there is a remote upset possibility in the latter race, where Republicans were pleased with John Sununu's performance in his debates against Jeanne Shaheen. North Carolina and Oregon are also likely to send freshman democrats to the Senate Chamber.

The Republicans are the significant favroites to hold onto their seats in Mississippi and Kentucky, although upsets remain possible there in the case of a Democratic wave. Georgia is a little trickier. Although all polling continues to show Jim Martin a few points behind Saxby Chambliss, Martin can earn a run-off by holding Chambliss under an outright majority of Georgia's votes. I would assign a 50 percent chance to a Chambliss win outright, a 40 percent chance to a run-off, and a 10 percent chance to a Martin win outright.

Finally, in Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively. Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.

http://www.fivethirtyeigh(...)jection-114-7-8.html

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Some very weird things are going on in Georgia, as the total vote is much, much lower than expected. Some speculation has the early vote not being counted, which would strongly suggest that Saxby Chambliss will have to face a runoff in four weeks.

If Franken holds on, if Jeff Merkley in Oregon can win (Multnomah is the big Portland Democratic engine and is largely outstanding), then it is increasingly likely that the Dems will converge on Georgia for the next four weeks to try to win the 60th Senate seat.

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Alaska: With 99% of precincts reported, Ted Stevens (R) leads Mark Begich (D) by 3500 votes.

There are reportedly over 60,000 absentee ballots filed, so no one has called it yet.

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) leads Jim Martin (D) 50-46. However, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that over 600,000 early votes have not been counted. Martin led handily in early voting, so it's highly likely that Chambliss will end up below 50% and this will go to a runoff.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman leads by less than 600 votes now. All outstanding ballots will matter, and there's the possibility of a recount as well.

Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) leads Jeff Merkley (D) by 15,000 votes with 75% of precincts reporting. Not looking good.