Crisis Oekraïne - Rusland #160 Waar Kerry verdere sancties wil

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 13:44 schreef meth1745 het volgende:
Ik lees 9% op Al Jazeera en RT, maar volgens betrouwbaardere bronnen was de laagste stand bijna -6%, en 's avonds laat (11 pm) was het -2%.
RT spreekt trouwens over ruim 40% sinds begin 2014, google finance geeft 34% (al kan die 9% het verschil verklaren). Al Jazeera doet er nog een schepje bij en zegt "The ruble has depreciated by nearly 60 percent against the dollar since the start of this year." (bedoelen ze depreciated to 60%?)

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A fresh plunge in Brent prices to a five-year low of $67.50 a barrel on Monday caused the dam to break, triggering a 9pc slide in the rouble in a matter of hours.

Analysts said it took huge intervention by the Russian central bank to stop the rout and stablize the rouble at 52.07 to the dollar. “They must have spent billions,” said Tim Ash, at Standard Bank.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 14:01 schreef Pharmacist het volgende:

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Dan heb je denk ik mijn bron niet goed gelezen. De Roebel tankte 9%, waarna er een rally plaatsvond. Men denkt dat de Russische centrale bank intervenieerde en dat dat de reden is geweest voor die rally. De Roebel sloot de dag dus niet op -9%.

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Russia's currency fell as much as 6% Monday before recovering to around 52 rubles per ...

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(Reuters) - Ukraine's military and separatist forces have agreed "in principle" on a new ceasefire from Dec. 5 in the rebel-held Luhansk region in the east of the country, the OSCE security group said.

The deal reported by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the latest attempt to reinforce a much violated ceasefire agreed on Sept. 5.

Shelling by from both sides has continued despite the three-month-old ceasefire deal signed by Ukraine, Russia and the pro-Russian separatists' leaders. Subsequent attempts to forge a stronger truce have failed to halt the artillery fire.

The OSCE said representatives from both sides had "agreed in principle to a total ceasefire along the entire line of contact" in the Luhansk region, but that differences remained on certain details.

The sides "continued to dispute aspects of the disengagement phase," the OSCE said in a report released late on Monday.

More than 4,300 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since separatist rebellions began in April. September's ceasefire deal has come under particular strain from fighting over the airport of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.

Ukraine said military representatives of Ukraine and Russia would hold talks with rebels on Tuesday in Donetsk, the other rebellious region, on Tuesday on establishing a new ceasefire as soon as possible and on the withdrawal of heavy weapons.

"Particular attention will be paid to the question of Donetsk airport as it is a strategic site," the press service for the Ukrainian military operation in the east said in a post on Facebook.

The sides held similar talks in November and did not reach an agreement.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 15:44 schreef crashbangboom het volgende:
Kennelijk kon er nu wel rechtstreeks onderhandeld worden, laten we hopen dat het standhoudt.

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representatives of Ukraine and Russia would hold talks with rebels on Tuesday in Donetsk, the other rebellious region, on Tuesday on establishing a new ceasefire as soon as possible and on the withdrawal of heavy weapons.

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The OSCE said representatives from both sides had "agreed in principle to a total ceasefire along the entire line of contact" in the Luhansk region, but that differences remained on certain details.

The sides "continued to dispute aspects of the disengagement phase," the OSCE said in a report released late on Monday.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 18:38 schreef deelnemer het volgende:

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De russen zaten ook aan de onderhandelingstafel. UIt je eigen bron:

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Verder zijn ze er niet echt uitgekomen:

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De Donetsk region (en dus ook het vliegveld) valt er sowieso buiten.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 22:37 schreef crashbangboom het volgende:

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Dan herhaal ik nog maar een keer dat "laten we hopen dat het wat oplevert/standhoudt"

Het lijkt wel of je teleurgesteld bent dat er toenadering is om iets op te lossen.

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Fighting has continued despite a ceasefire agreed on Sept. 5. In the rebel stronghold of Donetsk a senior separatist figure said rival sides agreed a new local truce from 10.00 a.m. ET around the city airport.

"But this is 65th time we agree about this. I don't rule out that there is going to be 66th time," Andrei Purgin said. Sounds of fighting abated but did not stop. Kiev said rebels renewed attacks on the airport in the evening.

http://www.reuters.com/ar(...)dUSKCN0JG0UU20141202

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 22:35 schreef deelnemer het volgende:
Sinking of Kremlin gas project leaves south-east Europe high and dry

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E Europe in shock over axing of South Stream

Eastern European nations reacted with shock and anger to Russia’s decision to abandon South Stream, its $50bn gas pipeline across the Black Sea into Europe, as shares in some of the companies involved in the project dived.

Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary said they had received no advance warning that Moscow was scrapping South Stream, even though they all have substantial financial and political capital invested. Russia said it would export its gas to a trade hub in Turkey instead.

South Stream is so far the biggest casualty of the stand-off between Russia and Europe over Moscow’s military involvement in Ukraine.

The much-vaunted project, backed by Russia’s state-controlled gas group Gazprom, was designed to bring Russian gas into Europe by bypassing Ukraine. It gained momentum after a series of price disputes between Moscow and Kiev over the past decade led to supply cuts for some of Gazprom’s European customers.

But there were fears in Brussels that the pipeline would cement Gazprom’s domination of the European gas market. The European Commission insisted that other gas suppliers be given access to South Stream, arguing that the idea of Gazprom both providing the gas and owning the pipeline violated EU competition rules.

However, the project was backed by several countries in southeastern Europe, which saw it as a way to improve their energy security. They also looked forward to earning money from transit fees for South Stream’s gas as it crossed their territory.
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At a meeting in Brussels of EU ambassadors on Tuesday, the Hungarian representative asked Federica Mogherini, the new EU foreign policy chief: “First Nabucco, now South Stream. What are we supposed to do now?”

Peter Szijjarto, Hungary’s foreign minister, said alternative sources of energy would now have to be explored, including gas from Azerbaijan.

Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia’s prime minister, told the country’s RTS channel that the decision was bad news for Belgrade and said he would urgently seek to speak with Mr Putin. “Serbia has been investing in this project for seven years, but now it has to pay the price of a clash between the great [powers],” he said.

Italy and Austria have also been vocal supporters of the venture, pitting themselves against the commission.

Shares in companies with contracts for South Stream also suffered. Stocks in Italian oil services group Saipem closed down 10.8 per cent, while Germany’s Salzgitter, whose joint venture is making pipes for the project, was down 7.4 per cent. Other businesses involved in South Stream include Italy’s Eni and Austria’s OMV.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 21:57 schreef michaelmoore het volgende:
een amerikaan in de regering van oekraine

dat zal raar vallen in rusland

http://www.telegraaf.nl/b(...)ring_Oekraine__.html

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President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has said that he signed a decree to grant Ukrainian citizenship to Natalie Jaresko, Alexander Kvitashvili and Aivaras Abromavicius, who were nominated for the future Cabinet of Ministers.

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RWB opposes creation of information ministry

Reporters Without Borders firmly opposes the planned creation of a Ukrainian information ministry, announced today. Without civil society being consulted, parliament is expected to ratify its creation when it votes on the new government later today.

An information ministry has been included in the proposed new government. Its creation, against the backdrop of an information war with Russia, has surprised journalists and media freedom organizations, which were not consulted.

“Putting the government in charge of ‘information policy’ would be major retrograde step that would open the way to grave excesses,” Reporters Without Borders secretary-general Christophe Deloire said.

“In a democratic society, the media should not be regulated by the government. The creation of an information ministry is the worst of all possible responses to the serious challenges that the government is facing.”

Media independence and media freedom are the best weapons against propaganda. Enlisting journalists in a government-managed information war would just undermine the public’s confidence in the national media. Reporters Without Borders urges Ukraine’s parliamentarians to oppose this proposal.

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Op dinsdag 2 december 2014 23:37 schreef J.B. het volgende:
Putin's Gas Deal With Turkey Is a Defeat
http://www.bloombergview.(...)h-turkey-is-a-defeat

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Analysis of Ukrainian Air Force Losses in eastern Ukraine clashes

It’s hard to say how many aircraft the Ukrainian Air Force has lost.

Some reports, especially those on the pro-separatists side seem to be a bit exaggerated but, as Ainonline website reported, on the basis of Ukrainian and British sources, the Ukrainian Air Force has lost 22 aircraft throughout the crisis.

Ukrainian military aviation had not been in a very good shape before the hybrid-conflict with the separatists started, and any losses may be considered to be severe.

The total loss count includes 9 combat planes, 3 cargo planes and 10 helicopters, most of which have been shot down with MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defense Systems) and, in case of some of the lost helicopters, with rocket propelled grenades.

In total, the UAF conducted 740 sorties during the operation, which is dubbed by the Kiev government to have an “anti-terrorist” character.

Starting from losses within the group of combat planes, one Su-24 Fencer, six Su-25 Frogfoots and two MiG-29 Fulcrums have been lost, where one of the Fulcrums was reportedly shot down by a Russian MiG-29.

The cargo planes which have been lost include single examples of An-26 Curl, An-30 Clank and Il-76 Candid. The Curl was reportedly hit by a Buk missile system; the same type of anti-aircraft system behind the downing of MH17 flight (according to most analysts). The Il-76 mentioned above was shot down in Luhansk, and it was a Candid in a flight of three such planes landing at Luhansk at the time. The first Candid made a safe landing, while the crew of the last one aborted landing.

The British sources state that lack of proper flight experience and intelligence data was the main reason for the incurred losses. The ECM systems on the Ukrainian jets have been made in Russia, which means that they were easy to overcome. According to the Polish outlet altair.com.pl, the Western countries were asked to supply new electronic countermeasures, however in fear of these being intercepted by the Russians, they were never delivered.

In the light of the analysis of the potential of the Ukrainian Air Force conducted by Dr Sean Wilson, which has been published in the Polish “Lotnictwo” magazine last year, the above losses may be considered to be significant.

According to Wilson, Ukraine, back in 1992, inherited 3,600 aircraft, including 850 helicopters, out of which 285 assault choppers and 2,750 aircraft, out of which 1,650 were combat planes. Back in 2013 the estimated data suggested that out of these numbers only 200 combat aircraft were in active service and about 70 were combat capable.

At that time, the fleet consisted of 15-20 MiG-29 Fulcrums, 10-12 Su-24M/MR Fencers, 14-18 Su-25 Frogfoots and 16 Su-27 Flankers. 16 MiG-29’s, 4 Su-24’s and 15 Su-25 were to be withdrawn by 2015.

Reports claim that 80 Frogfoots remain in active service and at least 14 are combat-capable. Which may be a significant notion, as the number is almost as high as the number of Frogfoots which were to be withdrawn.

Ukraine also had 66 examples of Su-27 Flankers, respectively 40 Su-27S Flanker-B’s (which are capable of conducting air-to-ground sorties), and 26 Su-27P Flanker-B’s (interceptor variant) and Su-27UB Flanker-C’s (two-seater). 36 of these were to remain in active service, while 16 were to be fully operational.

All of the Flankers are being currently used as interceptors. Modernization of these has been planned, and some examples have been updated before the conflict started.

When it comes to cargo planes, Ukrainians inherited 180 Candid-B transport aircraft, however, not many of these remained active. Two examples of An-30 Clanks were said to be still flying within the Open Skies program. About 20 Il-78 air tankers have been also a part of the post-Soviet inheritance; nonetheless the refueling equipment on these has been removed and maximally 8 of them remained active back in 2013 in a cargo role.

When it comes to the qualitative side of the analysis, the Ukrainian AF undertook several modernization programs for both fighters and attack aircraft. The modernizations included new avionics and navigational systems based on both GPS, as well as on its Russian counterpart – GLONASS.

Still, the Ukrainian Air Force suffered considerable losses during such a limited conflict a sign that the weapons in the hands of the separatists have been extremely effective against Kiev’s combat planes and helicopters so far.

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Crumbling oil makes Putin more dangerous: Expert

Russian President Vladimir Putin is being pushed "further into a corner" by falling oil prices, leaving him little option but to continue his aggression toward Ukraine and confrontation with the West, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Tuesday.

Putin has "gone all-in on an anti-U.S., must-keep-Ukraine nationalist engagement," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box." He said it's "completely inconceivable" for Putin to back down.

"This is what is behind all his approval ratings. It's behind who he now is as a leader," Bremmer said, adding that capitulation would "erode a lot of his power."

Russia's currency and economy are crumbling along with oil prices, the country's main export and revenue source. On Monday, the ruble suffered its worst one-day decline since 1998, and it looks like Russia's economy will tip into recession next year.

"I think that lower oil prices simply squeeze him harder, pushes him further into a corner. He feels he has to fight as a consequence," said Bremmer, whose Eurasia conducts research and advises clients on political risks around the world.

Because of Putin's aggression in Ukraine, Russia has been forced to scrap a pipeline to supply natural gas to Europe. The $40 billion South Stream project had proposed to enter the EU via Bulgaria. He said Monday the pipeline instead would be diverted to Turkey.

Meanwhile, Bremmer predicted the real problems for Putin and Russia are still a couple years off. "When Putin really takes economic pain that has the potential to destabilize the country, I'm thinking about 2017, in the runup to the 2018 election."

But he said he doesn't see oil prices staying quite this low over time because of the conflict gripping Libya three years after the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi and the possibility of sanctions against Iran.
Could the US and Iran be friends?

Regarding Iran, Bremmer believes relations with the U.S. will improve in the long term, even if a deal is not reached with over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

On "Squawk Box" Tuesday, he said: "Iran is a country that has a large population. It's quite globalized in terms of the orientation of the citizenry towards the world. Women play a big role in it. It's urbanized. It's diversified a economy."

"You ask me long-term who the United States is likely to work with, especially as the efficacy of American sanctions start eroding globally, it's going to be Iran," he continued, but acknowledged that no thawing with Washington can happen with Iran's current leadership.

"I don't see this leadership in place in Iran in 10 years," Bremmer said.

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Op woensdag 3 december 2014 00:21 schreef Nintex het volgende:

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Ik las vandaag dat de South Stream sowieso verlies zou draaien gezien de recente gas prijzen. Daarbij zou meer aanbod door de South Stream die prijs nog meer onder druk zetten.

http://www.reuters.com/ar(...)dUSKCN0JG0BU20141202

Het stop zetten heeft meer te maken met het overeind houden van Gazprom.

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Ongeluk in Oekraïense kerncentrale

Bij een kerncentrale in het zuidoosten van Oekraïne is een ongeluk gebeurd. Dat zegt premier Arseni Jatsenjoek woensdag.
Dat meldt Reuters. Jatsenjoek heeft zijn minister van Energie opgeroepen een persconferentie te geven.

Meer informatie volgt.

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Op woensdag 3 december 2014 11:56 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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twitter:

BreakingDotUK twitterde op woensdag 03-12-2014 om 12:03:09 Ukraine Energy Minister says ‘no threat to reactor’ in nuclear power plant accident, referring to unspecified ‘insignificant damage’. reageer retweet

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Reuters twitterde op woensdag 03-12-2014 om 12:04:16 #Ukraine PM reports accident at nuclear power plant - Full story, more follows: http://t.co/Hezbl2IG2N reageer retweet

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(Reuters) - Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Wednesday an accident had occurred at the Zaporizhye nuclear power plant (NPP) in south-east Ukraine and called on the energy minister to hold a news conference.

"I know that an accident has occurred at the Zaporizhye NPP," Yatseniuk said, asking new energy minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn to make clear when the problem would be resolved and what steps would be taken to restore normal power supply across Ukraine.

News agency Interfax Ukraine said the problem had occurred at bloc No 3 - a 1,000-megawatt reactor - and the resulting lack of output had worsened the power crisis in the country. Interfax added that the bloc was expected to come back on stream on Dec. 5.

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rConflictNews twitterde op woensdag 03-12-2014 om 12:11:57 Footage of separatists in eastern #Ukraine with a KSVK 12.7 rifle, a weapon only in service in the Russian army. http://t.co/gqMMlldYwt reageer retweet