[MLB] Season 2012 #11: Postseason and World Series

This is from a post I made on another forum, explaining why Trout is the MVP to a non-sabermetrically minded person. I had been meaning to take all of the evidence I had supporting Trout and combine it into one clear, concise argument for Trout vs. Cabrera for a while now and just got around to doing it today. So here it is. Note: I paraphrase Jeffy and FanGraphs a couple times in this argument

Let's go through the arguments that people are making for Cabrera to be the MVP. And I'll do it on hard-mode by not even mentioning WAR one time.

"He won the Triple Crown! That hasn't happened in so long! He must be better than Trout!"

Well, that's nice. I understand it's rarity and difficulty, but the Triple Crown is just an arbitrary, seemingly random, collection of 3 stats. One of which tells you nothing about individual effectiveness and is completely opportunity-based (RBI) and one of which is very misleading and again tells you very little about individual effectiveness (.AVG). If you want to pull the Triple Crown card, though, Trout had a collection of 3 random stats that were even rarer than Cabrera's (30 HR, 45 SB, 125 R, which has never been done in the history of the MLB). Winning the Triple Crown does not automatically equate someone to be being the best offensive player that year.

"Well he leads the league in OPS! That includes all the aspects of hitting. His OPS is over 1!"

While an OPS of 1+ is very impressive, OPS is kind of a flawed stat in the sense that it treats OBP and SLG as the same importance, when in reality each point of OBP is worth more in terms of creating runs than each point of SLG.

A better stat to look at is wOBA (weighted on-base average), which is similar to OPS but weighs every individual offensive outcome (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, BB, HBP) based on their true run value. SLG assumes that a double is worth twice as much as a single, which is actually false as a single is worth about .44 runs to a double's .77. 2 singles are better than 1 double. This year Trout posted a league-high .421 wOBA to Cabrera's .417.

"But he had so many RBI! He had 50 more than Trout! He's such a better run producer!"

While the RBI totals would tell you Cabrera is better at driving in runners, it's a lot closer than the numbers suggest. See, RBI is the most flawed and useless stat that constantly gets thrown around when comparing player performance. What resulted in his misleading RBI total was a league-high 444 runners on-base during his plate appearances. In terms of actual effectiveness of knocking runners in, they were close to equal. Cabrera this year drove in 31% of his runners on base to Trout's 28%, a lot closer than the 50 RBI margin would have you think. In addition, Miguel batting 3rd meant most of the time his baserunners were Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry, the two fastest players in Detroit's lineup, making them easier to drive in. Since Trout hits leadoff, his baserunners were slower bottom of the order hitters like Chris Ianetta and Vernon Wells.

But if you want to play the RBI (opportunity) game, you must also consider the other side to having the most opportunities with men on base, with the fact that Cabrera grounded into more double plays (28) than any other player in baseball this year.

So you can either ignore the gross difference in opportunities and give Cabrera credit for driving in many more runs while also penalizing him for creating many more outs, or adjust for opportunity and realize that Cabrera hasn’t actually been that much better than Trout at bringing his teammates home once they get on base.

"OK, well maybe his offensive numbers aren't any better, but Miggy is so clutch! He gets the big hits when it really matters and carried his team down the stretch!"

Although "clutchness" is hard to quantify, WPA (win-probability added) does a pretty good job of it. It uses win probability, which takes into account baserunners, outs, and what inning it is -- all the things people used to describe "clutch" -- and measures the win probability before and after each player's at-bat, crediting them with the difference in win probability that resulted from their at-bat. It essentially measure's how much each individual player contributed to their team's win (or loss). For example, the highest single-game postseason WPA of all-time was David Freese in Game 6 of last year's World Series. I don't think anyone would deny that he was as clutch as they came in that game.

So let's look at Trout and Cabrera's season WPA this year:

Trout - 5.67 (1st in AL)
Cabrera - 4.55 (4th in AL, behind teammate Prince Fielder and Edwin Encarnacion)

So Trout actually contributed (offensively) to more wins, even taking into account context-based (clutch) situations for his team than Miggy this year.

WPA by month
Trout
-0.08 - April
0.89 - May
1.63 - June
1.42 - July
1.45 - August
0.36 - Sept/Oct

Cabrera
0.86 - April
0.83 - May
-0.28 - June
0.99 - July
1.05 - August
1.11 - Sept/Oct

So yes, while Cabrera was more clutch and effective over the last month, does it really make up for the previous 4 months that Trout consistently beat Cabrera? After all, a win in June is worth just as much as a win in September at the end of the year. I don't buy that Cabrera playing better during a one-month window of time that's deemed "more important" (when in reality every win is worth the same) outweighs the previous four months that Trout had.

So now we've come to the conclusion that they were virtually equal in runs created for their team, with the slight edge to Trout, they were virtually equal in driving in baserunners, with the slight edge to Cabrera, and Trout was consistently more clutch throughout the course of the season, with the edge going to Cabrera in the final month. I think it's safe to say they were virtually equal offensive contributors for their teams, you really can't give an edge to either one.

But wait, there's more! (to the game of baseball than just offense). You have to play defense too. And while we couldn't really decide upon who has the advantage offensively, I don't think anyone would really debate that Trout has a MASSIVE advantage over Cabrera defensively, while playing the hardest position in the game. (Although I'm not a huge fan of defensive stats in baseball - and you don't really need them in this situation for it to be clear who the advantage goes to - the defensive numbers are there to support Trout pretty soundly as well).

One more thing to consider is Trout's obvious, and again MASSIVE, speed advantage over Cabrera. Yes, we already included this earlier as SB and CS are included in wOBA, but let's even take steals out of the picture. Trout added so much more value to his team by all the times he used his speed to go from 1st to 3rd, scoring from 2nd on singles and taking extra bases by just being faster and better base runner. This is something that Cabrera simply cannot offer to his team, and frankly, he hurts his team (takes away value) by his deficiency in this facet of the game.

So let's break it down:

Offense: No clear advantage
Speed: Huge advantage Trout
Defense: Huge advantage Trout

So how can Trout not be the Most Valuable Player this season?

"Well Cabrera's team is in the playoffs! And Trout's isn't! Ha! See? Cabrera is MVP!"

Well, the Angels winning percentage when Trout was in the lineup was the best in the MLB, plus they had a better record overall than the Tigers. So Cabrera should win the MVP because he plays in a weaker division than Trout and his teammates are better? What else did Trout have to do to make up for his team's shortcomings and his stronger division? Should he have played the other 7 positions and pitched like Justin Verlander?

He added more value to his team than Cabrera, plain and simple. Player value to me does not change based on what team you are on. That implies that your team has something to do with an individual award, and that's not the case. It's not the "Most Valuable Player plus other valuable players around you" award, it's just "Most Valuable Player". And Trout was the Most Valuable Player to his team in the entire MLB this year

Cabrera had an incredible season, no doubt, and I'm glad he won the Triple Crown (for both my fantasy team and my wallet, not to mention the sport of baseball), but he was not the Most Valuable Player to his team this year.

Dos37	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 14:52
	Overzicht van alle teams: American League Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Devil Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays National League Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Cincinatti Reds Colorado Rockies Florida Marlins Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Philidelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals
emokid	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 15:03
	Welke wedstrijden raden jullie aan om te kijken de komende dagen? Zijn er krakers die ik niet mag missen? Met het oog op wel of geen playoffs.
The_Playmaker	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 15:38
	quote: Op woensdag 26 september 2012 15:03 schreef emokid het volgende: Welke wedstrijden raden jullie aan om te kijken de komende dagen? Zijn er krakers die ik niet mag missen? Met het oog op wel of geen playoffs. Op dit moment is de series tussen de A's en Rangers toch wel spannend. Die spelen vandaag en morgen nog tegen elkaar. Vanaf Vrijdag spelen de Rangers en Angels drie keer tegen elkaar. Ook de White Sox en Rays spelen vanaf Vrijdag drie keer tegen elkaar. Mochten de Nationals de komende 2 dagen nog wat wedstrijden verliezen en de Braves blijven winnen dan word de series tussen de Nats en Cardinals die Vrijdag begint ook ineens erg belangrijk.
Dos37	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 15:40
	En ook de Orioles en Rays spelen nog tegen elkaar dat kunnen ook nog belangrijke wedstrijden worden.
Chase_Utley	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 16:06
	quote: Op woensdag 26 september 2012 15:03 schreef emokid het volgende: Welke wedstrijden raden jullie aan om te kijken de komende dagen? Zijn er krakers die ik niet mag missen? Met het oog op wel of geen playoffs. Vandaag is de Mariners met King Felix tegen de Angels met Wilson wel de moeite waard. (Al begint die wel heel laat) Morgen is de Rays met Shields tegen de White Sox met Peavy. Vrijdag is het de Angels met Weaver tegen Dempster en de Rangers. Dat vind ik zelf qua pitching matchups de mooiste. Verder de series die The Playmaker noemt.
The_Playmaker	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 17:14
	Ik ben trouwens benieuwd wie de Cy Young in de AL zal winnen. Voor mij zijn persoonlijk Verlander en Price de 2 favorieten. Weaver heeft 19 Wins en een 2.75 ERA maar zijn K/9 is dit jaar erg tegenvallend. En ook al kijkt men niet naar sabermatrics, zijn 3.0 WAR zegt eigenlijk genoeg. Bij King Felix twijfel ik of zijn stats dit jaar genoeg zijn om te winnen. In de NL gaat het tussen Dickey en Gonzalez. Ik denk dat Cueto zijn kansen verpest heeft door een slechte maand September. Wie had dit aan het begin van het seizoen kunnen denken?
Chase_Utley	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 17:22
	quote: Op woensdag 26 september 2012 17:14 schreef The_Playmaker het volgende: Ik ben trouwens benieuwd wie de Cy Young in de AL zal winnen. Voor mij zijn persoonlijk Verlander en Price de 2 favorieten. Weaver heeft 19 Wins en een 2.75 ERA maar zijn K/9 is dit jaar erg tegenvallend. En ook al kijkt men niet naar sabermatrics, zijn 3.0 WAR zegt eigenlijk genoeg. Bij King Felix twijfel ik of zijn stats dit jaar genoeg zijn om te winnen. In de NL gaat het tussen Dickey en Gonzalez. Ik denk dat Cueto zijn kansen verpest heeft door een slechte maand September. Wie had dit aan het begin van het seizoen kunnen denken? Weaver vind ik ook geen Cy Young kandidaat. Ik denk dat Price het gaat worden, al zou ik ook kunnen leven met King Felix en Verlander. In de NL moeten ze de Cy Young natuurlijk aan Medlen geven . Dickey of Gio is mij om het even maar vlak ook Kershaw niet uit. Als Lee een beter record a gehad (Al zegt dat natuurlijk poep.) dan had hij ook een grote kanshebber geweest. Zijn BB/9 is absurd. En Kimbrel verdient sowieso votes, die gast is lights out. Met zijn 16.23 K/9 ratio
The_Playmaker	woensdag 26 september 2012 @ 17:45
	quote: Op woensdag 26 september 2012 17:22 schreef Chase_Utley het volgende: [..] Weaver vind ik ook geen Cy Young kandidaat. Ik denk dat Price het gaat worden, al zou ik ook kunnen leven met King Felix en Verlander. In de NL moeten ze de Cy Young natuurlijk aan Medlen geven . Dickey of Gio is mij om het even maar vlak ook Kershaw niet uit. Als Lee een beter record a gehad (Al zegt dat natuurlijk poep.) dan had hij ook een grote kanshebber geweest. Zijn BB/9 is absurd. En Kimbrel verdient sowieso votes, die gast is lights out. Met zijn 16.23 K/9 ratio Wat Kimbrel aan het doen is dit jaar is bijna absurd. Dit waren zijn cijfers volgens ESPN per 21 September: Strikeouts: 105 in 57 1/3 IP, the best strikeout ratio ever (16.5/9 IP) Opponent AVG.: .128, the lowest against any pitcher since 1900 Opponent OPS: .368, the lowest against any pitcher in the expansion era WHIP: 0.68, best by any National League reliever since 1900 Percentage of hitters struck out: 49.5 pct., best in live-ball era Strikeout-to-hit ratio: 105 whiffs, 25 hits (4.2), best of all time
Guard	donderdag 27 september 2012 @ 14:09
	En gisteren ook een four strikeout inning, goed voor zijn stats
The_Playmaker	donderdag 27 september 2012 @ 18:07
	quote: The Miami Marlins offered Adam Greenberg one more chance in the major leagues on Thursday morning's edition of NBC's Today Show. The 31-year-old quickly accepted the team's one-day contract, setting up a full-circle ending to what has been an interesting story. Greenberg is scheduled to face R.A. Dickey and the New York Mets at Marlins Park next Tuesday in the second to last game of the season. You might know his story: Greenberg was only 24 years old and a new member of the Chicago Cubs when he stepped into the batter's box for his first major league at-bat. But the moment soon soured when Marlins pitcher Valerio De Los Santos hit Greenberg in the head with his first pitch. Greenberg exited the game and ongoing concussion problems over the years put the Connecticut native in an unfortunate and select group as he struggled (and failed) to reach the majors again. Only four position players in baseball history have been hit with a pitch in their only plate appearance and Greenberg was the only one to be hit with the first ball that was thrown. Filmmaker Matt Liston, a big Cubs fan, sought to remove Greenberg from that list when he started the One At-Bat campaign earlier this season. But despite a slick video, widespread national media attention and almost 25,000 signatures on an online petition, the Cubs said thanks, but no thanks. One of the big stumbling blocks appeared to be the fact that Major League Baseball does not give out one-day contracts. That meant Greenberg — whose most recent baseball experience was playing for Team Israel's failed World Baseball Classic bid — would have to displace an actual prospect off someone's 40-man roster, something that was neither fair nor had any shot of happening. But baseball commissioner Bud Selig has apparently given his approval to an exception for Greenberg. And so the outfielder will get his one chance to record an official at-bat in the same city where his big league dreams effectively died, playing for the same team that they ended against. It's kind of appropriate, in a way.
The_Playmaker	vrijdag 28 september 2012 @ 15:58
	Zowel de Yankees, A's, Angels en White Sox verliezen. De Rays blijven maar winnen. Het word steeds spannender in de AL. Vandaag begint Rangers-Angels en ook weer White Sox-Rays. In de NL lijkt het wel beslist. De Cards staan 3 wedstrijden voor op LA met nog maar 6 te spelen.
Chase_Utley	vrijdag 28 september 2012 @ 19:08
	Al zijn die 6 games wel tegen de Nationals en de Reds. En na vorig jaar durf ik niets meer te zeggen, slechts te gokken.
The_Playmaker	zaterdag 29 september 2012 @ 05:41
	Homer Bailey met een no-hitter!
popolon	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:25
	There's your MVP, Miggggie met weer een HR. 42 HR, 133 RBI, AVG .327.
Chase_Utley	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:27
	quote: Op zondag 30 september 2012 00:25 schreef popolon het volgende: There's your MVP, Miggggie met weer een HR. Leuk, maar Trout is beter dit seizoen. Zowel baserunning als defensief is hij veel beter dan Miggy. Desalniettemin is hij offensief weer geweldig, maar dat doet Trout ook niet onaardig.
popolon	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:28
	Dirks met een HR, 6-0. Ik ben het daarmee oneens, Miggie is voor mij de MVP. En Cabrera heeft 't op 3B onverwacht goed gedaan dit jaar.
Chase_Utley	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:29
	quote: Op zondag 30 september 2012 00:28 schreef popolon het volgende: Dirks met een HR, 6-0. Ik ben het daarmee oneens, Miggie is voor mij de MVP. ja, jij bent een homer, neem je niks kwalijk. Objectief zijn de cijfers in t voordeel van Trout.
popolon	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:31
	Trout heeft zeker een gigantisch seizoen. Moet nog zien of 'ie dat keer op keer kan, ik heb m'n ernstige twijfels. Met Cabrera zit je altijd gebakken.
Chase_Utley	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:32
	quote: Op zondag 30 september 2012 00:31 schreef popolon het volgende: Trout heeft zeker een gigantisch seizoen. Moet nog zien of 'ie dat keer op keer kan, ik heb m'n ernstige twijfels. Met Cabrera zit je altijd gebakken. ja Miggy heeft zich meer bewezen, maar voorzover ik weet gaat het MVP over 1 seizoen, het is geen oevreprijs. Al ben ik bang dat de TC de doorslag gaat geven voor Miggy. En dat zou belachelijk zijn.
popolon	zondag 30 september 2012 @ 00:33
	Nou belachelijk zou ik 't niet willen noemen hoor.