[US2004] The Primaries

quote:

---

The Primaries and elections in America

'Primary election' is the term used in America for the elections which will select the two parties presidential nomination. The primary elections start in January of election year in what is called the "primary season".

There are a variety of ways in which the elections at a local level are held. These can almost be seen as the heats in an athletics meeting. If you win this you move on to the next one, the semi-finals (state party elections) and if you win this, on to the final itself. One is the caucus system. Others are the so-called primaries : closed primaries, open primaries and blanket primaries.

Regardless of their title, the primaries are designed to give as much democracy as is deemed possible to local politics. This is not so true for the caucus system.

---

quote:

---

What is a caucus?

A caucus is a series of party meetings at every level of party organisation within a state; wards, precincts, districts and counties. At each level, party members vote for delegates who will take their opinions on the choice of presidential candidate forward to the next level. Ultimately the state conventions choose the delegates to the national convention.

Caucus meetings tend to be dominated by party activists who are sufficiently committed to the party’s cause to take part in each stage. Supporters of the caucus system believe that it leads to the best candidate being selected. However, meetings are closed (i.e. not opened up to anyone other than a party member) and historically they were linked to a small group of men in Congress and in state legislatures who selected party candidates for national and state office including presidential candidates.

As a result of this apparent lack of a democratic approach, fewer and fewer states are using this type of selection. Many feel that the system allows the local ‘big-wigs’ in politics to dominate a ward, precinct etc. and that any final choice of presidential candidate is not really representative of those at the caucus but purely the views of such political figures who dominate at a local level.

---

quote:

---

What are primaries?

This system allows a broader participation of voters to express their views on who should represent the party at the next election. In some primaries you do not have to be a party member to vote.

Closed primaries offer a greater degree of participation than caucuses in that voting is not confined to party members. Those voters who have declared an affiliation to a party are allowed to participate in that party’s primary. This declaration can literally be done as the voter enters the polling office with a statement that s/he voted for the Democrats at the last election and that they intend voting in this primary; assuming this was a Democrats primary !!

Open primaries allow even greater participation. The voters of a state, regardless of their party affiliation, can participate in either party’s primary but not both. The advantage of this system is that it allows the most popular candidate to be put forward and one who will have appeal across party lines. This, of course, is an advantage. But the purely democratic nature of this system is open to abuse as in the past there have been cases whereby Democrats, for example, have legally voted at a Republican primary, though not at their own, but have voted for what was the worst candidate. The Republicans have done likewise at Democratic primaries. Twenty nine states use this system of voting.

Blanket primaries offer the widest possible participation. Voters are allowed to vote in both primary elections of the parties - i.e. at both the Republican and Democrat primaries.

---

quote:

---

Some primaries are also called "advisory primaries" as the elected delegates to the national convention do not have to follow the views of the voters and they are free to follow their own preference for presidential candidate. However, the voters have expressed their advice - hence the title - on the ballot paper.

---

quote:

---

States also vary in the way they allocate delegates to the presidential candidates. Some primaries use the 'winner-take-all' system (WTA) whereby the candidate who wins the most votes at a primary gets all of the delegates.

The alternative system is the proportional representation primary (PR) which allocates delegates in proportion to the number of votes they received in the primary. The Democrats have used PR since 1969 in an effort to increase the voice of the minority groups and to broaden the appeal of the candidates. However in recent years the party has used WTA in larger primaries and some of the larger states favour such a system as they feel that WTA increases their political clout in the overall nomination process of the presidential candidate.

---

De data van de verschillende primaries zijn hier te vinden: http://www.politics1.com/calendar.htm

Maandag 19 januari zal de eerste caucasus plaatsvinden in de staat Iowa.

Vote on

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/

Dit blog post dagelijks de laatste pols. Wel interessant om bij te houden dus.

quote:

---

Sunday Zogby IA Tracking
by Paleo
Sun Jan 18th, 2004 at 16:33:58 GMT

Kerry 24.4%
Dean 23.1%
Gephardt 18.8%
Edwards 18.4%

"Kerry continues to poll strong. Dean seems to have bottomed out and move almost back to where he was," pollster John Zogby said. "There are fewer doubts about Dean's ability to defeat Bush, a factor that has hurt him much of this week.""

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3992425/

UPDATE: From the diaries, courtesy of the human AP polling wire that is Paleo. No question that Dean's on the rebound. But will Kerry's strength in the second-choice numbers push him over the top tomorrow?

Second choice:

Kerry: 26%
Edwards: 20%
Dean: 15%
Gephardt 15%

Lean toward (for those answering unsure to 1st question)

Kerry: 16%
Edwards: 15%
Gephardt: 11%
Clark: 4% (not competing)
Dean: 2%
Sharpton: 2%

Will Dean's turnout save it for him? Did Gephardt just run out of steam? Will Edwards be able to deliver on his surge -- and if he doesn't where do his supporters break where he fails to get 15%? And the big question, for me, is this: what exactly does John Kerry have on the ground?

It's all happening. --Trapper John

---

Waarschijnlijk gaat Dean het niet redden. De 2e keuze voor Kerry is veel hoger dan voor Dean.

quote:

---

Op maandag 19 januari 2004 16:29 schreef CeeJee het volgende:

[..]

Geniaal.

---

quote:

---

Op maandag 19 januari 2004 23:03 schreef Kozzmic het volgende:
Hoe zit het eigenlijk precies.... In Iowa is de steun van 45 afgevaardigden te winnen. Gaat dat volgens het principe "the winner takes it all" of krijg je naar de uitslag een evenredig aantal afgevaardigden?

---

quote:

---

Op maandag 19 januari 2004 23:29 schreef UnderWorld_ het volgende:

[..]

Hoeveel afgevaardigden zijn er in totaal dan? Volgens mij zijn dat er best veel; 45 stelt dan echt niks voor.

---

quote:

---

There are currently 4,321 total delegates to the Democratic National convention, including 801 unpledged or "superdelegates." Unlike pledged delegates, if a "superdelegate" dies or for some reason is unable to participate at the convention, alternates do not replace that delegate. Therefore, the number of unpledged delegates could decrease, adjusting the total delegate number and reducing the "magic number" needed to clinch the nomination. For more about the delegate selection process, click here.

---

45 delegates stelt dus echt helemaal niks voor.

quote:

---

Op maandag 19 januari 2004 23:33 schreef Kozzmic het volgende:

[..]

[..]

2 maal 2160 dus, oftewel 4320.

Die 45 afgevaardigden van Iowa stellen in zoverre iets voor dat ze allereerste indicatie geven van who's hot & who's not. Maar als echte eerste indicatie wordt traditioneel New Hampshire gezien, de uitslag daar schijnt regelmatig de uiteindelijke presidentskandidaat aan te wijzen.

---

Clark komt in NH. Maar NH stelt kwa afgevaardigden ook niks voor: 27.