Roadmap to war against iran #14

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Bush's Thousand Days

By Arthur Schlesinger Jr.
Monday, April 24, 2006; Page A17

The Hundred Days is indelibly associated with Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the Thousand Days with John F. Kennedy. But as of this week, a thousand days remain of President Bush's last term -- days filled with ominous preparations for and dark rumors of a preventive war against Iran.

The issue of preventive war as a presidential prerogative is hardly new. In February 1848 Rep. Abraham Lincoln explained his opposition to the Mexican War: "Allow the President to invade a neighboring nation, whenever he shall deem it necessary to repel an invasion and you allow him to do so whenever he may choose to say he deems it necessary for such purpose -- and you allow him to make war at pleasure [emphasis added]. . . . If, today, he should choose to say he thinks it necessary to invade Canada to prevent the British from invading us, how could you stop him? You may say to him, 'I see no probability of the British invading us'; but he will say to you, 'Be silent; I see it, if you don't.' "

This is precisely how George W. Bush sees his presidential prerogative: Be silent; I see it, if you don't . However, both Presidents Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower, veterans of the First World War, explicitly ruled out preventive war against Joseph Stalin's attempt to dominate Europe. And in the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962, President Kennedy, himself a hero of the Second World War, rejected the recommendations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for a preventive strike against the Soviet Union in Cuba.

It was lucky that JFK was determined to get the missiles out peacefully, because only decades later did we discover that the Soviet forces in Cuba had tactical nuclear weapons and orders to use them to repel a U.S. invasion. This would have meant a nuclear exchange. Instead, JFK used his own thousand days to give the American University speech, a powerful plea to Americans as well as to Russians to reexamine "our own attitude -- as individuals and as a nation -- for our attitude is as essential as theirs." This was followed by the limited test ban treaty. It was compatible with the George Kennan formula -- containment plus deterrence -- that worked effectively to avoid a nuclear clash.

The Cuban missile crisis was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in all human history. Never before had two contending powers possessed between them the technical capacity to destroy the planet. Had there been exponents of preventive war in the White House, there probably would have been nuclear war. It is certain that nuclear weapons will be used again. Henry Adams, the most brilliant of American historians, wrote during our Civil War, "Some day science shall have the existence of mankind in its power, and the human race shall commit suicide by blowing up the world."

But our Cold War presidents kept to the Kennan formula of containment plus deterrence, and we won the Cold War without escalating it into a nuclear war. Enter George W. Bush as the great exponent of preventive war. In 2003, owing to the collapse of the Democratic opposition, Bush shifted the base of American foreign policy from containment-deterrence to presidential preventive war: Be silent; I see it, if you don't. Observers describe Bush as "messianic" in his conviction that he is fulfilling the divine purpose. But, as Lincoln observed in his second inaugural address, "The Almighty has His own purposes."

There stretch ahead for Bush a thousand days of his own. He might use them to start the third Bush war: the Afghan war (justified), the Iraq war (based on fantasy, deception and self-deception), the Iran war (also fantasy, deception and self-deception). There is no more dangerous thing for a democracy than a foreign policy based on presidential preventive war.

Maybe President Bush, who seems a humane man, might be moved by daily sorrows of death and destruction to forgo solo preventive war and return to cooperation with other countries in the interest of collective security. Abraham Lincoln would rejoice.

The writer, a historian, served as an adviser to President John F. Kennedy.

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MOSCOW - Russia's foreign minister warned Washington not to use force against Iran and criticized what he described as the United States' unilateral approach to other global crises in an interview published Wednesday.

Russia was worried about Vice President Dick Cheney's recent comment that "all options are on the table" to stop Tehran from becoming a nuclear power, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

"We are concerned about the possibility of a military scenario," Lavrov was quoted as saying, in the government daily Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "We are observing a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf. Such a buildup of forces always threatens to trigger a military conflict, even by accident."

Iran has ignored a U.N. deadline to halt the enrichment of uranium, which the U.S. says is part of a secret effort to build nuclear weapons. Enriched to a low level, uranium is used to produce nuclear fuel but highly enriched uranium can be used in an atomic bomb.

Russia has repeatedly spoken out against the use of military force against Iran, and has warned that harsh punishment would be counterproductive.

In December, Russia supported a U.N. Security Council resolution that imposed limited sanctions against Iran over its refusal to halt enrichment, but only after the council dropped an initial proposal to impose curbs on a nuclear power plant Russia is building in Iran.

Senior diplomats from the five permanent Security Council members and Germany met Monday in London to discuss ways to pressure Iran to suspend enrichment. Officials in London and Washington said new measures would likely include incremental restrictions on trade and arms.

Lavrov asserted that the talks on the Iranian issue were deadlocked, saying both the United States and Iran were unwilling to compromise.

"It would be unforgivable to miss a chance to use every opportunity to start such talks because of a false notion of prestige, because of the unyielding stance taken by both parties," he was quoted as saying.

Echoing recent comments made by President Vladimir Putin, Lavrov also assailed Washington for what he called a unilateralist approach to global issues.

"When they offer us a unilateral strategy and urge us to express solidarity in combating one or another evil ... that's not the behavior of a partner," he was quoted as saying.

Lavrov added that Putin's harsh criticism of U.S. policy earlier this month voiced an opinion many other nations shared, but were afraid to express publicly.

Putin told a security conference in Munich Feb. 10 that the United States "has overstepped its national borders in every way" and accused it of triggering a global arms race.

Lavrov praised Putin's blunt talk: "Someone had to say it ... to show the need for candid talk about how to deal with global affairs."

Russia can speak independently, he said, because of its resurgence following the troubled years after the 1991 Soviet collapse.

"There are those who cannot say 'no' to the United States," he said, according to the newspaper. "But we can allow ourselves to tell the truth, and not just reject unilateral calls for support but offer concrete constructive alternatives."

In a bid to increase its role in Middle East peace efforts, Russia this week hosted Khaled Mashaal, leader of the militant Palestinian group Hamas. Lavrov said Tuesday the Hamas chief pledged to end missile attacks and violence against Israel, although Mashaal reaffirmed his group's refusal to recognize Israel.

Lavrov also called for lifting the financial aid blockade of the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.

The United States, the Europeans and Israel consider Hamas a terrorist group. Hamas' renunciation of violence and recognition of Israel are key demands of the Quartet of Middle East peace brokers — Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations.

In the newspaper interview, Lavrov said Russia will continue to support the Quartet's demand that Hamas recognize Israel. But he warned the West's refusal to deal with the militant group could undermine a fragile accord among the Palestinians.

"It's wrong and shortsighted not to see the real progress that already has been made," he said.

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Rice benoemt 'havik' tot raadgever
Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, 4 maart (IPS) - De Amerikaanse minister van buitenlandse zaken, Condoleezza Rice, heeft de “havik” Eliot A. Cohen benoemd op de belangrijkste raadgeverfunctie van het ministerie. Waarnemers zien in de benoeming een manoeuvre van Rice om zich in te dekken tegen kritiek uit het neoconservatie kamp rond vice-president Dick Cheney.

Cohen volgt op de post van Senior Department Counselor de “realist” Philip Zellikow op, een vertrouweling van Rice die de post in november 2006 verliet uit frustratie over de halfslachtige Amerikaanse politiek vrede te bevorderen tussen Israël en de Palestijnen. Waar Zellikow een voorstander was van diplomatie en onderhandelingen, ziet Cohen meer heil in een krachtdadig militair optreden.

Eliot A. Cohen is professor militaire geschiedenis aan de John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies en een goede vriend van voormalig vice-defensieminister Paul Wolfowitz, de huidige directeur van de Wereldbank. Hij zit ook in het bestuur van het American Enterprise Institute, een invloedrijke conservatieve denktank die een belangrijke rol speelde in de beslissing van de Amerikaanse president George W. Bush om 30.000 extra soldaten naar Irak te sturen.

Cohen is de man die de term “Wereldoorlog IV” introduceerde voor de oorlog van de VS tegen wat hij de “militante islam” noemt. Hij is een verklaard voorstander van de omverwerping van het regime in Iran en noemt iedereen die in Washington kritiek heeft op Israël “antisemieten”.

Hij is ook de auteur van het boek “Supreme Command”, waarin hij stelt dat grote politieke leiders als Abraham Lincoln en Winston Churchill een beter strategisch inzicht hadden dan hun generaals. Het boek kwam in de belangstelling toen het werd opgemerkt onder de arm van president Bush.

Recenter maakte Cohen brandhout van de aanbevelingen van de Iraq Study Group, die onder leiding van voormalig Buitenlandminister James Baker pleit voor een terugkeer naar de onderhandelingstafel om de conflicten in het Midden-Oosten op te lossen. Cohen is gekant tegen onderhandelingen met Syrië en pogingen om het vredesproces tussen Israël en de Palestijnen nieuw leven in te blazen.

Rice lijkt nochtans precies die richting te willen uitgaan. Waarnemers interpreteren de benoeming van de ijzervreter Cohen dan ook als een poging om zich in te dekken tegen kritiek uit neoconservatieve hoek. Als raadgever heeft Cohen wel een vinger in de pap maar geen echte beslissingsbevoegdheid. Rice kan zijn adviezen dus naar believen opvolgen of naast zich neer leggen.

“Iemand als Cohen op de zevende verdieping van het ministerie met invloed op de beslissingen kan haar goed uitkomen”, zegt Chris Nelson, auteur van het Nelson Report dat erg populair is bij insiders in Washington, “Condi heeft flankdekking nodig aan de rechterzijde, vooral wanneer ze de Israëli’s ertoe wil dwingen opnieuw ernstig met de Palestijnen over vrede te gaan praten, als voorwaarde voor een groter regionaal akkoord met Saoedi-Arabië en Iran”. IPS (MC/NVM)(EINDE/2007)

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noemt iedereen die in Washington kritiek heeft op Israël “antisemieten”.

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Op maandag 12 maart 2007 00:48 schreef NorthernStar het volgende:
Defection or abduction? Speculation grows after Iranian general goes awol in Turkey

· Former minister vanished from Istanbul hotel
· Fingers pointed at Mossad and anti-Tehran rebels

Iranian defector may hold catalyst for war

An Iranian defense official who reportedly defected to the West last week may be in possession of evidence that could be used justify military action against Iran.


Een nieuwe Chalabi (overloper) of bedreigd met het uitmoorden van zijn familie oid?

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That market plunge -- what happened?

The Economist called it "a snort from a dragon's nostrils." At the end of February, as China's stock market index fell by more than 8 percent, stock markets tumbled around the globe -- it was their steepest decline since the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped more than 500 points in a single afternoon.

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Op maandag 12 maart 2007 17:19 schreef bsekoe het volgende:
Vanochtend op RTLZ (bij "een kijkje op de beurs", je kent het wel) zei iemand dat er berichten binnen kwamen dat Israël al zijn "onderdanen" in landen die grenzen aan Iran, aanraadde die landen zo snel mogelijk te verlaten. Een aanval zou eerder vroeg dan laat gaan plaatsvinden was de reactie bij de gast op Beursplein 5.

DIt was tussen 9 en 10, daarna niets meer van gehoord. Ook niets te vinden op inet/andere media. Was dit een fout bericht? Heeft iemand anders dit gezien?

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Op maandag 12 maart 2007 19:53 schreef NorthernStar het volgende:

[..]

Het klopt.

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Op maandag 12 maart 2007 19:55 schreef Monidique het volgende:

[..]

Het klopt niet, die landen grenzen niet aan Iran. Hoe dan ook niet echt uitzonderlijk.

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Dems abandon war authority provision

WASHINGTON - Top House Democrats retreated Monday from an attempt to limit
President Bush's authority for taking military action against
Iran as the leadership concentrated on a looming confrontation with the White House over the
Iraq war.

Officials said Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other members of the leadership had decided to strip from a major military spending bill a requirement for Bush to gain approval from Congress before moving against Iran.

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The Iran-related proposal stemmed from a desire to make sure Bush did not launch an attack without going to Congress for approval, but drew opposition from numerous members of the rank and file in a series of closed-door sessions last week.

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Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., said in an interview there is widespread fear in Israel about Iran, which is believed to be seeking nuclear weapons and has expressed unremitting hostility about the Jewish state.

"It would take away perhaps the most important negotiating tool that the U.S. has when it comes to Iran," she said of the now-abandoned provision.

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I have been a pro-Israel activist for most of my life, very active in Federation, AIPAC, ADL, American Jewish Committee and so forth... [bron]