Wie wint de wereldbeker?

FYI: Een grote consultantsfirma (met kennelijk niet zoveel te doen) heeft op basis van Fifa-ranking en bookmaker odds de kansen om het WK te winnen voor iedere deelnemer berekend. Zoals in de onderstaande tabel valt af te lezen heeft Brazilië op papier de beste kansen en Trinidad en Tobago de minste kansen.

Country _______Model Probability

Brazil______________12.4%

England____________8.6%

Spain______________8.3%

France_____________8.3%

Netherlands_________8.0%

Argentina___________7.4%

Portugal____________5.8%

Germany____________5.5%

Italy________________5.3%

Czech Republic_______5.0%

Mexico______________4.2%

Sweden_____________3.6%

USA________________2.2%

Croatia______________1.8%

Poland______________1.6%

Ivory Coast___________1.2%

Switzerland__________1.2%

Ukraine_____________1.1%

Paraguay____________1.1%

South Korea__________0.9%

Japan_______________0.9%

Tunisia______________0.9%

Ecuador_____________0.8%

Serbia and Montenegro_0.6%

Australia_____________0.6%

Costa Rica___________0.6%

Iran_________________0.5%

Ghana_______________0.4%

Saudi Arabia__________0.4%

Togo________________0.3%

Angola______________0.3%

Trinidad and Tobago____0.2%

Note: This table translates Fifa ranks into odds and combines
them with the average odds given by bookies to create an "initial
probability". Then, it penalizes the countries according to how
tough their schedule is and it spits out the final probability as per
the table above.