Oekraïense presidentsverkiezingen, de oppositie op winst

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Op maandag 29 november 2004 23:00 schreef Joost-mag-het-weten het volgende:
Die Uniaatskerk maakt volgens mij toch echt deel uit van de Katholieke kerk hoor, al is ze inderdaad sterk Orthodox beinvloed, maar dat zijn zowat alle "Katholieke" kerken binnen Oost-Europa.

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Maar je kunt toch moeilijk ontkennen dat het "hart" van de machtsbasis van Yuchenko in dat deel van Oekraine ligt ? Maar zoals je zegt , het "Westerse" deel van Oekraine is véél verdeelder dan het "Russische" deel , maar ze hebben hun "haat" tov Rusland en het huidige regime gemeenschappelijk.

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Ukraine court annuls poll result

Ukraine's Supreme Court has annulled the second round of the presidential election - upholding opposition claims that it was fraudulent.
Presiding judge Anatoly Yarema said a new vote must be held by 26 December.

Pro-Western candidate Viktor Yushchenko had challenged the result, saying it was rigged in favour of the pro-Moscow Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych.

The court criticised the election commission and ordered it to prepare a re-run between the two contenders.

The commission had declared Mr Yanukovych the winner following the 21 November election, which was criticised by Western observers.

The prime minister and the outgoing President Leonid Kuchma had pressed for a completely new election - possibly with a new candidate.

But Mr Yushchenko wanted a re-run of the second round only, in order to capitalise on the momentum he has built up with thousands of his supporters thronging the streets of the capital for three weeks, says the BBC's Steven Eke in Kiev.

Both sides in this conflict have said they will abide by the court's decision, which is final.

Fireworks

"We order the central election commission to set a date for a new runoff vote... in accordance with the law," Judge Anatoly Yarema said.

Tens of thousands of opposition protesters who had converged on Kiev's central square awaiting the verdict cheered, waving blue-and-yellow Ukrainian and orange opposition flags and chanting "Yushchenko! Yushchenko!".

Fireworks crackled through the sky.

"This is a great victory of all people who have been standing at the square, a great victory for Ukrainian democracy," said opposition lawyer Mykola Katerinchuk.

There has been no comment from the Yanukovych camp.

The BBC's Jamie Coomarasamy reports from Kiev that the Supreme Court's ruling has shown Ukraine's democracy at work.

Mr Yushchenko's insistence on a re-run of only the second round of the election was backed by Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Ukraine's western neighbour, Poland.

But President Putin of Russia had backed calls for an entirely fresh poll to pre-empt further challenges and re-runs.

Mr Putin has also expressed concern about a possible split between the west of Ukraine, which generally supports Mr Yushchenko, and the east, which tends to lean towards Russia.

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Ukrainian Court Quashes Election Results

3 December 2004 (RFE/RL) -- The Ukrainian Supreme Court has declared the presidential runoff election of 21 November illegal and canceled the results based on an appeal from the country's opposition leadership.


The Supreme Court issued the ruling in an announcement in Kyiv that was broadcast live moments ago after appeals from both candidates.

Supreme Court Chairman Anatoliy Yarema, delivering the court's ruling after five days of deliberations, said a "repeat vote" is required.

He said the ballot should take place three weeks counting from 5 December -- meaning 26 December -- suggesting it would be a repeat of the November runoff.

Both opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko and his opponent, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, have pledged to honor the Supreme Court's decision.

The case revolved around claims of fraud submitted by Yushchenko, the opposition candidate who says the 21 November runoff was rigged in favor of Prime Minister Yanukovych, who was declared the winner by the Central Election Commission.

The Supreme Court finished questioning witnesses and examining evidence yesterday.

Hundreds of opposition supporters were gathered near the court house in Kyiv today to await the ruling, with thousands of others convened on Kyiv's Independence Square, the center of opposition protests since the runoff.

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Ukraine Mired In Fresh Standoff

5 December 2004 -- Ukraine's pro-Western opposition was today locked in a fresh standoff with the government that is raising fears over preparations for a repeat of the country's flawed late-November presidential election.


Outgoing President Leonid Kuchma is insisting on constitutional reforms that would dilute the powers of the next president.

Political analysts say opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko is the front-runner to win the presidency in a new two-man runoff against Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych that is tentatively slated for 26 December.

Yushchenko supporters in parliament are refusing to back constitutional reforms proposed by Kuchma that would undermine presidential powers.

Opposition supporters held fresh street protests in the capital today.

The latest stalemate follows a landmark ruling on 3 December by Ukraine's Supreme Court that invalidated the 21 November presidential poll as being riddled with fraud.

Checks and Imbalances

The new impasse led to an abrupt adjournment yesterday of an emergency legislative session aimed at paving the way for new balloting. The parliament, or Verkhovna Rada, abandoned plans to continue the weekend session and instead adjourned for 10 days.

Some political analysts suggest that Kuchma's aim as he steps down after 10 years of rule is to maintain his influence through parliament, where his support is still strong.

They note that the reforms would transfer power from the president to the parliament on appointing all top government posts except for the prime minister, defense, and foreign ministers. The president's candidates for those three posts would need to be approved by lawmakers.

The dispute also has blocked important changes to Ukraine's electoral law that the opposition says are needed to prevent similar fraud to that which has sparked two weeks of intense public demonstrations.

The parliament adjourned without taking any action on the proposed election reforms or constitutional changes.

Kyiv Rallies Continue

Correspondents reported that thousands of demonstrators were massed today at government buildings and on Kyiv's central Independence Square. They are vowing to stay until the path is clear for the repeat presidential balloting expected on 26 December.

At a Kyiv rally last night, Yushchenko told supporters that Kuchma must replace Ukraine's Central Electoral Commission and dismiss the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych -- the pro-Russia presidential candidate whose cabinet lost a no-confidence vote in the parliament on 1 December.

"Until the president issues a decree dismissing members of the Central Electoral Commission and sets up new commission, until he dismisses the de jure government and adopts the ruling on the election on 26 December, all dialogue is useless," Yushchenko said.

Yushchenko's campaign team wants the electoral changes to be approved before the repeat vote. It wants any constitutional changes to be considered after the elections.

Kuchma, who backed Yanukovych during the run-up to the presidential vote, accuses the opposition of reneging on pledges to prove both electoral reforms and constitutional curbs on the presidential powers.

International Pressure

Kuchma has appealed for Russian and European mediators to return to Kyiv for talks tomorrow.

An aide to Aleksander Kwasniewski said today that the Polish president will mediate that new round of negotiations. EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus, and Russian Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov are also expected to participate.

Also today, the chairman-in-office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Pasi, urged Ukrainian officials to allow international observers full access to the new presidential vote process. He also called for the voting to comply with OSCE standards of fairness, and he requested that Ukraine's authorities ensure "an honest campaign and impartial state media."

Pasi called on the OSCE's 55 member states to send election observers to help monitor the voting in the expected 26 December runoff.

Yushchenko Cites Threats

Opposition leader Yushchenko said in separate interviews published today that he is receiving death threats and that his family has gone into hiding for fear of their safety.

The remarks came in separate interviews with BBC televison and Britain's "Sunday Telegraph" newspaper today. Yushchenko also said he had expected an attack on his person during the run-up to the now-annulled presidential election.

Yushchenko said he is still determined to find out the facts behind the mystery illness that disfigured his face during the election campaign. He referred to that illness as a result of poisoning and said he will soon reveal to the world "all the details of what they gave me to look like this."

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Ukraine: Opposition Says Government, Electoral Body Must Be Purged Before Runoff
By Askold Krushelnycky

An atmosphere of euphoria and triumph was lingering among thousands of opposition supporters gathered in the center of Kyiv today following last night's Supreme Court decision ordering a new presidential runoff on 26 December. The stage is now set for a re-run between pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko and Moscow-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. RFE/RL reports from the Ukrainian capital that members of the opposition are calling for a change in the makeup of both the government and the central electoral body.


4 December 2004 (RFE/RL) -- Yushchenko declared victory yesterday for his so-called orange revolution after the country’s Supreme Court ruled that the 21 November presidential vote was invalid and ordered a new vote.

He told supporters to stay in the streets until incumbent President Leonid Kuchma has sacked the government and replaced the election commission that presided over the vote that has now been ruled dishonest.

Lawmakers today met to discuss potential changes to the makeup of the Central Election Committee.

Opposition Deputy Yuriy Klyuchkovskiy said that changing the electoral body is essential.The opposition also hopes to press through a resolution approved on 1 December to fire Yanukovych and his government.

"The present composition of the Central Election Commission took part in deeds that were the opposite [of the honest conduct] they were supposed to engage in," Klyuchkovskiy said. "In these circumstances, it seems to me that the president, under the constitution, is simply obliged to remove the credentials of the [election commission] members and propose new members according to the laws governing the [commission] in consultation with the various factions of parliament."

Further Opposition Demands

The opposition also hopes to press through a resolution approved on 1 December to fire Yanukovych and his government.

Kuchma has not accepted the nonbinding measure to remove Yanukovych.

Ivan Lozowy, a political commentator and head of the independent Kyiv-based Institute for Statehood and Democracy, said the makeup of both the government and the election commission must change in order to ensure the next round is fair.

"The re-run of the second round can only be more or less fair, transparent, and honest if there are significant changes to those responsible for the conduct of those elections. That is, first and foremost, the members of the CEC, members of regional election administrations, and the minister of internal affairs -- who, even now, has not launched any criminal investigation into the massive electoral fraud which the Supreme Court has ruled took place."

Yanukovich has indicated he will stand in the 26 December runoff.

Some opposition members have speculated that Yanukovych might ultimately withdraw. If that happens, Yushchenko would need only to win the support of a majority of those who turn up to vote.

Achieving those numbers could be relatively easy, unless there is a large-scale boycott of the vote.

Avoiding Splits

A boycott could lend strength to separatist leanings in eastern and southern Ukraine, where some politicians have reportedly proposed the formation an autonomous entity opposed to Yushchenko.

One senior opposition member, parliamentary deputy Petro Poroshenko, said a Yushchenko victory will bring the country together, not divide it.

"We will stop the attempts to split the territorial integrity of the country," Poroshenko said. "I am sure that the east and the west, the south and the north, will vote for Yushchenko. I am sure that we can expect a united Ukraine to bring an upsurge in social development and the economy, and an end to the political crisis. We have shown that the constitution and the law have become a reality in Ukraine."

International mediators were due to hold fresh talks with both sides in Kyiv today. Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and his Lithuanian counterpart, Valdas Adamkus -- who were both expected to participate -- today canceled their trips.

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Outsiders warned off Ukraine poll

Ukraine's opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko has urged foreign nations not to interfere in the re-run of the presidential poll.
He told the BBC the only role for the world's community was to help ensure the 26 December balloting was fair.

West-leaning Mr Yushchenko faces a rematch with PM Viktor Yanukovych, after the Supreme Court ruled that the 21 November poll was fraudulent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been openly backing Mr Yanukovych.

Mr Putin made two visits to Ukraine in the run-up to the original vote.

Mr Yushchenko himself has been accused of being a US puppet by the Yanukovych camp.

Tens of thousands of pro-Yushchenko supporters continued to hold their rallies in the capital, Kiev, and around Ukraine, buoyed by the court's decision on Friday to stage a repeat re-run.

Mr Yanukovych described the ruling as an unconstitutional measure but said he would contest the re-run.

The prime minister's supporters - mainly in eastern and southern Ukraine - vowed to vote for him again.

Ukraine 'not divided'

"The election of the president of Ukraine is exclusively an internal issue for 47 million Ukrainians," Mr Yushchenko told BBC1's Breakfast with Frost programme, speaking through an interpreter.

"I'm calling on all our international partners and neighbours to recognise one thing - that only the people of Ukraine could resolve this issue and their opinion should be respected.

"We need assistance in one thing only - to strengthen the measures for having honest, transparent and democratic elections," Mr Yushchenko added.

He also said that Moscow had nothing to fear from Ukraine if he were to win the elections.

"Russia will always be our neighbour," Mr Yushchenko said, without elaborating.

He also dismissed suggestions by some analysts that Ukraine was facing possible disintegration.

"I think that it is a completely wrong view to think that Ukraine is divided into west and east. Ukraine is not divided either by geography or language or religion," Mr Yushchenko said.

"No-one should even think that Ukraine is losing its territorial sovereignty or integrity."

Trading accusations

Mr Yushchenko was speaking a day after the emergency parliamentary session debating key electoral law changes to prevent fraud had been adjourned until 14 December after opposition factions failed to reach agreement.

Ukraine's Socialists and Communists had earlier promised to vote for the amendments if the opposition supported a constitutional reform aimed at trimming presidential powers.

But the deal collapsed after the Yushchenko camp said they would consider the constitutional changes only after the electoral amendments were approved.

Mr Yushchenko blamed the government of trying to stall the electoral reform, while outgoing President Leonid Kuchma - who handpicked Mr Yanukovych as his successor - accused the Yushchenko camp of sabotaging the deal.

"The opposition isn't fulfilling practically any of the agreements reached at a round table that involved European politicians," Mr Kuchma said, calling international mediators back to Kiev for a new round of talks on Monday.

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Ukraine's 'goddess of revolution'
By Marina Denysenko
BBC News, Ukraine


Orange-clad protesters call her "Goddess of the Revolution" while outgoing President Leonid Kuchma and some of the oligarchs - Ukraine's business and political elite - are believed to hate her.

Glamorous Yulia Tymoshenko, one of the key figures of the ongoing Orange Revolution in Ukraine, ignites passion on both sides.

She is a close ally of Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of the Ukrainian opposition that believes he won the bitterly disputed presidential run-off on 21 November.

Recent events have elevated Ms Tymoshenko's popularity to new heights, literally. On one occasion, riot police guarding Mr Kuchma's office raised their shields to allow her through to where talks were being held.

On another, she perched on top of a bus, from where she whipped the crowd into a frenzy with her calls for the government's resignation.

"I would even prefer her to be the president," one of the Kiev protesters says.

Controversial character

In her speeches, Ms Tymoshenko has referred to Mr Kuchma as a "red-haired cockroach".

And when talking about the supporters of Viktor Yanukovych, who claimed victory in the election, she suggested they should hang themselves on the blue and white scarves they wear.

Her opponents say she is demagogic and pretentious.

She sports an elaborate hairdo reminiscent of a peasant plait, meant to appeal to ordinary Ukrainians.

But her followers point to her intelligence and charisma.

Ms Tymoshenko is seen as one of the candidates for the post of prime minister in post-Kuchma Ukraine, and that makes many Ukrainians feel uncomfortable.

They point to her controversial past when in the 1990s she reportedly made a fortune from questionable gas trading.

She was briefly arrested in February 2001, but the next month a court in Kiev quashed all the charges and annulled the arrest warrant.

She became one of the key players in Mr Yushchenko's government of 1999-2001, launching an all-out assault on the oligarchs' interests in Ukraine's highly corrupt energy sector.

As the result of her efforts, some $2bn were re-directed into the state budget.

Ms Tymoshenko's critics say that once she is in power she is likely to be driven by revenge for those oligarchs in the energy sector.

Lady Yu's charisma

Her radicalism is offset by the more moderate tactics of Mr Yushchenko.

"If Tymoshenko had been in charge, the breakthrough would have already been achieved," BBC Kiev office head Svitlana Dorosh says.

But local observers agree that Mr Yushchenko's team needs such a personality. With a new poll just days away, it is essential to keep the momentum of the street protests going, they say.

And the charisma of Lady Yu may be indispensable.

Mr Yushchenko's flamboyant aide is adored by the crowds that seem to have forgotten that she used to be an oligarch herself.

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Tegenslag voor oppositie Oekraïne

Uitgegeven: 4 december 2004 17:27
Laatst gewijzigd: 4 december 2004 22:06

KIEV - De Oekraïense oppositie heeft zaterdag een tegenslag moeten incasseren. Het parlement in de hoofdstad Kiev ging niet akkoord met een wijziging van de kieswet, die fraude moet voorkomen.

De pro-westerse oppositie drong op veranderingen aan om een herhaling van de misstanden bij de presidentsverkiezingen op 21 november te voorkomen. Het hooggerechtshof verklaarde die stembusronde, met regeringskandidaat Janoekovitsj als winnaar, ongeldig wegens kiezersbedrog.


Spoedzitting

De oppositie wil dat de nieuwe presidentsverkiezingen op 26 december wel eerlijk en democratisch verlopen. Maar de tegenstanders van de huidige regering kregen tijdens een spoedzitting in het parlement geen meerderheid achter zich. De regeringsgezinde parlementariërs weigerden over het voorstel te stemmen, waarop de zitting tot 14 december werd verdaagd.

De weigering was een reactie op de houding van de oppositie tegenover andere hervormingen. De aanhangers van de pro-westerse presidentskandidaat Joesjtsjenko hadden geen zin om tegelijkertijd over een omstreden beperking van de macht van de president te beraadslagen. Joesjtsjenko verwacht de winnaar te worden van de verkiezingen op tweede kerstdag.

Janoekovitsj

Zijn uitdager wordt opnieuw de pro-Russische Janoekovitsj. De aanvankelijke winnaar van de recente verkiezingen stelde zich zaterdag kandidaat voor de nieuwe stembusronde.

Minister Lavrinovic van Justitie schaarde zich achter de uitspraak van het hooggerechtshof om de vorige ronde ongeldig te verklaren. Hij noemde het vonnis legaal en zei dat iedere Oekraïense burger de uitspraak moet respecteren. In een bolwerk van Janoekovitsj, de oostelijke stad Donetsk, gingen echter duizenden mensen te straat op uit woede over de uitspraak van de rechters.

Maar ook tienduizenden aanhangers van de oppositie bleven in Kiev demonstreren. De Joesjtsjenko-aanhangers willen hun zogenoemde oranje revolutie pas beëindigen als premier Janoekovitsj en zijn bondgenoot president Koetsjma hun functie hebben neergelegd.

Overleg

Bemiddelaars uit Europa en Rusland overleggen maandag in de Oekraïense hoofdstad Kiev voor een derde maal over de politieke impasse in het land. Dat heeft het bureau van president Koetsjma zaterdag meegedeeld.

De Oekraïense president had de bemiddelaars eerder zaterdag al opgeroepen weer naar Kiev te komen voor nieuw overleg. Volgens de vertrekkende president houdt de oppositie zich niet aan afspraken die in twee eerdere gesprekken zijn gedaan.

'Spanningen'

"Dat leidt tot toenemende spanningen in het land", aldus een verklaring van Koetsjma's bureau. De president heeft er zaterdag ook over gebeld met de Nederlandse premier Balkenende, de huidige EU-voorzitter.

EU

Premier Balkenende heeft de Oekraïense president Koetsjma zaterdag in een telefonisch gesprek hulp aangeboden in de periode tot de nieuwe verkiezingen op 26 december.

De Europese Unie is bereid waarnemers te sturen voor die nieuwe stembusgang. Maar, benadrukte Balkenende als huidige voorzitter van de EU in zijn gesprek met Koetsjma, het is in eerste instantie aan de Oekraïners zelf om de verkiezingen te organiseren. Balkenende drong er opnieuw bij Koetsjma op aan dat de situatie in het land vreedzaam moet worden opgelost. Balkenende zei dat zaterdag in de marge van de laatste normen en waardenconferentie in Rotterdam.

Balkenende heeft ook nog gebeld met de Poolse president Kwasniewski, een van de bemiddelaars in de politieke crisis van Oekraïne. Ze hebben afgesproken dat de uitspraak van het hooggerechtshof over de geldigheid van de verkiezingen het kader is van de verdere dialoog naar een vreedzame oplossing. Polen is momenteel voorzitter van de Raad van Europa.

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Ukraine dominates security forum

The European security organisation is meeting to discuss an enlarged election monitoring mission to Ukraine for the re-run presidential ballot.
The head of the OSCE, Bulgarian Foreign Minister Solomon Passy, said the observers would ensure the new poll on 26 December was free and fair.

Ukraine's opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, faces a rematch with PM Viktor Yanukovych.

The Supreme Court ruled that the 21 November poll was fraudulent.

Foreign ministers from the 55-nation Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe are meeting on Monday in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia.

They are due to decide whether to nearly double the number of poll monitors to 1,000.

Mr Passy urged Ukrainian authorities to ensure the new vote was clean of fraud.

"In particular, we expect to see a fair campaign and unbiased reporting in state-controlled media," he said, the Associated Press news agency reported.

However, Russia's ambassador to the OSCE said the agency's monitors had double standards,

"Sometimes they are not objective in their assessment of the electoral process... they should be helping (the new democracies in Eastern Europe), not criticizing unfairly," Alexi Borovadkin told the AFP news agency.

Russian influence

Earlier, West-leaning Mr Yushchenko warned foreign nations not to interfere in the poll except to help ensure balloting was fair.

"The election of the president of Ukraine is exclusively an internal issue for 47 million Ukrainians," Mr Yushchenko told BBC1's Breakfast with Frost programme.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had been openly backing Mr Yanukovych

Mr Putin made two visits to Ukraine in the run-up to the original vote.


Mr Yushchenko has been accused of being a US puppet by the Yanukovych camp.

Moscow has accused western countries of interfering in Ukraine's affairs through their support for Mr Yushchenko.

The OSCE conference will test how well the post Cold-War framework of co-operation between Russia and Western nations can deal with the strains over Ukraine, says the BBC's European affairs correspondent William Horsley.

Russia and some of its close neighbours are proposing a change in the OSCE's charter so that it focuses more on fighting international terrorism and less on issues of democracy and human rights within states.

Such a clear shift would not be acceptable to many member countries, but Mr Passy said the conference was expected to say that fighting terrorism was the top priority.

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Ukraine crisis: Ask our expert

Ukraine is gripped by a complex political crisis as hundreds of thousands of people continue to demonstrate over the hotly disputed presidential election.

Allegations of vote-rigging have led to calls for a fresh poll.

The BBC News website's Stephen Mulvey, an expert on the region, is in Kiev and is closely following developments.

If you have any questions about the situation in Ukraine and what might happen next, you can send your questions to him using this form.

Here are some of your questions so far:


THREAT TO UNITY
Marc Wallace, Chicago, Illinois, US: I have read about some referendums that would split the country. Do you see any threat to Ukraine's unity?

Stephen's answer: I talked to the head of the Donetsk regional council, Boris Kolesnikov, on Friday. He is widely regarded in Kiev as a dangerous separatist. However, in his conversation with me and another BBC correspondent, he said he was firmly against separatism or any measures that would split the country. He is planning a referendum in January in which the people of the Donetsk region will vote on whether Ukraine should become a federation. The idea is to give the regions more power, and to trim the powers of the centre. Donetsk, which has 10% of Ukraine's population and contributes 20% of its GDP, would give less money to the centre. But Mr Kolesnikov argued that federalisation would strengthen Ukraine, in fact that it would "save" the country (without specifying from what). He pointed out that the election had revealed deep divisions, which he said ought not to be ignored. I am unsure what danger, if any, such a referendum holds for Ukraine's unity. It is certainly an issue that raises strong passions. But Donetsk cannot vote for federalisation by itself. To become law, a proposal on federalisation would need to be adopted by the Ukrainian parliament and by a national referendum, and this will not happen.


SPREADING STRIFE
Alex, Moscow, Russia: Do you think current events in Ukraine will encourage people to take to the streets in Belarus and/or other countries in the region?

Stephen's answer: I find this a very difficult question to answer. I think it is clear that the events in Georgia last year, and in Serbia before that, have had some influence on the protesters in Kiev because they showed what could be achieved. However, each country is different. It may be that there are insufficient numbers of opposition supporters for the same to happen in Belarus and Russia, and no opposition leaders with mass appeal. In Russia, in particular, the government may enjoy greater legitimacy. The state apparatus may also be more resilient. Also, bear in mind that it is not only the opposition in these countries that will be looking at this phenomenon and wondering how to apply it to their situation. The governments too will be developing strategies to tackle it.


PARTY PLATFORMS
Colin Jackson, Leigh-on-Sea, England: What do the parties in Ukraine represent? Are they right-wing, left-wing, religious, ethnic or what?

Stephen's answer: One of the paradoxes of this election is that the election platforms of the two main candidates are not hugely different. Neither is left-wing, and religion does not come into it. In practice, Mr Yushchenko has the support of most of the Ukrainian-speaking part of the population, and Mr Yanukovych has the support of most of the Russian-speaking part of the population, at least in the towns and cities of the east and south, but I do not think many people would describe this an ethnic divide. It is more of a cultural issue. In so far as policy issues have stirred voters, Mr Yushchenko's desire for a rapid drive towards integration with the West has alienated some in the south and east who fear it would spoil relations with Russia, and Mr Yanukovych's proposal to make Russian a second official language and to introduce the possibility of dual citizenship (Ukrainian and Russian) has alienated voters in nationalist western regions. But personal issues have also entered into the race: Mr Yushchenko's American wife, Mr Yanukovych's biography (including two jail terms), and the ties between Mr Yanukovych and Leonid Kuchma, the outgoing president, have all had an effect.


JOINING EU
Ivan Safonov, Methuen, Massachusetts, US: What are the chances for Ukraine to join the EU in the near future? If a pro-Western president is chosen who is promising the possibility of joining the EU but fails to attract help from the West while at the same time breaking the relationship with Russia, wouldn't that hurt Ukraine much more?

Stephen's answer: Viktor Yushchenko says he would like to start membership talks with the European Union and Nato within five years, if he becomes president. However, this is probably over-optimistic. A few years ago the EU enlargement commissioner, Guenter Verheugen, said Ukraine was as close to joining the EU as Mexico was to joining the US. Mr Yushchenko says he would not break the relationship with Russia. He says Russia is bound to remain a key trading partner, and claims that trade with Russia grew dramatically during his two-year premiership in the 1990s. The Economist has suggested that Mr Yushchenko, a liberal, might prove more accommodating to Russian business interests than Mr Yanukovych, who has close ties to some of Ukraine's home-grown oligarchs.

Giles Adcock, Valencia, Spain: Are the Ukrainian people generally excited at the prospect of future membership of the EU, or does the majority want closer ties and a stronger union with Russia?

Stephen's answer: It is hard to tell what the majority want. There are undoubtedly many who are hoping, ultimately, to join the EU, and many who regard the West with distrust. Some people make the point that they do not want to be anyone's puppet, neither Russia's nor Europe's. It is Ukraine's clearly stated policy to seek EU membership and to integrate as far as possible with Euro-Atlantic security structures, namely NATO. This policy was originally designed partly to shield Ukraine from any "imperial" ambitions that Russia may have in the region, but was not intended to prevent a close and constructive relationship with Moscow.


POLITICALLY DIVIDED
Mike, Vancouver, Canada: We hear that Ukraine is split geographically, what kind of minority political support does each of these two candidates receive in the other's power base?

Stephen's answer: The nine regions in the south-east where a majority voted for Viktor Yanukovych, according to the official results, have a combined population of about 23 million. The total population of Ukraine is 48.5 million. These figures come from the census of 2001. I have no hard data on the minority political support each candidate has in the other's power base. The election results, as published by the Central Election Commission, suggest that in some eastern regions support for Mr. Yushchenko is very low indeed, and equally that support for Mr. Yanukovych in the westernmost regions is minimal. It is possible that ballot stuffing has exaggerated this lack of support for the "other" candidate in some cases, but I have no doubt that it exists in reality.


GLOBAL SUPPORT
Zoë Young, London: How much and what kind of support has Yushchenko's campaign received from the US, and how does this compare with Russia's support for Yanukovych's campaign?

Stephen's answer: The US reacted very strongly to the evidence of falsification, once election monitors had published their report, but had not openly endorsed Mr Yushchenko's candidacy. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, by contrast, wished Mr Yanukovych luck, and appeared with him in public during the election campaign. This may well have alienated some Ukrainian voters who were undecided who to vote for.


YANUKOVYCH CONVICTION
Giovanni Munoz, Rome, Italy: Do people know about the fact that Mr Yanukovych, was convicted several years ago in Donetsk? Under Ukrainian law why does that fact not prevent him from becoming president?

Stephen's answer: He says he was wrongly convicted, but one of the reasons people often give for voting for Mr Yushchenko is that they felt it was not right for someone who was once jailed for assault to be their president. Since then a court has wiped his criminal record clean, accepting his claim to have been wrongly convicted.


SUPREME COURT
Stefan, Odessa, Ukraine: Why is the supreme court taking so long to come to a decision?

Stephen's answer: The sessions of the court are broadcast live on television. The judges are hearing oral evidence, and have been handed thousands of pages of documents. I have not heard anyone argue that there is anything suspicious in the judge's failure to deliver a quick ruling. By Friday the court was already hearing closing arguments.


RUSSIAN TROOPS
Tom Harrington, Gilford, New Hampshire, US: I've heard it said that there are Russian troops in Kiev. Is there any evidence of this?

Stephen's answer: I have seen no evidence of Russian troops in Kiev. I have heard reports of Russian troops in Odessa, but I have not been there, have not seen them, and I am generally sceptical. I have not even seen any Ukrainian soldiers in Kiev, and even police have been practically invisible in the areas where the main demonstrations are occurring, at least since I arrived on Saturday. Riot police guarding the presidential administration are protected by three well-organised rows of protesters, to prevent any possible hostile action against them by provocateurs or drunks. Occasionally the protesters turn their large television screen around to face the police so that they can see what is happening elsewhere in Kiev and in the country. One place in Ukraine where there have been, and always are lots of Russian servicemen is Sevastopol, Crimea. This is the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.


NEW ELECTIONS
Andrey, Lisichansk, Ukraine: What is the probability of new elections without the current candidates? How would Serhiy Tihipko, the ex-Chairman of the National Bank, and Socialist leader, Oleksandr Moroz ballot in the new elections?

Stephen's answer: Some people hold the view that if the election is held again from scratch, as President Leonid Kuchma wants, then none of the candidates who stood in the first election are eligible to stand. This is not true. It was indeed a provision that existed in an earlier election law, but it is not in the current election law. So, if there is a new election, Viktor Yushchenko will run again. However, Mr Yushchenko is not in favour of a new election. He will not willingly settle for anything other than a re-run of the second round of the election that has just taken place. More than one person has suggested to me that if Serhiy Tihipko had been the pro-government candidate, rather than Viktor Yanukovych, the election would have been much more evenly balanced. He is an intelligent, 44-year-old, relatively photogenic politician, who could have a big future in Ukrainian politics. Unlike Mr Yanukovych, he has never spent time in jail. The Socialist leader, Oleksandr Moroz, did not fare well in this election, but that may not prevent him running again.


IMPACT ON THE REGION

Andrew, Richmond, US: What sort of implications could such a victory for the pro-West candidate have for other governments in the former Soviet Union? And what effects will this have on Russia's own political and foreign policies?

Stephen's answer: There is no doubt that Ukraine's experience is being watched closely in neighbouring states and in the Caucasus. In fact some pro-democracy activists from Belarus came to Kiev to pass on their experience to the Ukrainian student action movement, Pora. Everyone here also recognises the similarity between events in Ukraine and those in Georgia a year ago - whether they approve of them or not. And on Thursday Ukrainian opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, said Ukraine would "export its revolution" to Russia. Whether this is possible or not, is another matter. Russia has been keen to promote umbrella organisations grouping together the states of the former Soviet Union, for example the Commonwealth of Independent States. But these grand projects have achieved very little, and have not in fact provided Russia with an effective mechanism to project its power abroad. During his election campaign Viktor Yushchenko made clear that he saw Russia as a major trading partner, and pointed out that trade with Russia had risen sharply during his period as prime minister. He said he envisaged relations with Russia developing further in this way - through shared economic interests rather than ambitious political declarations.


VOTER FRAUD

Dwight Stagner, Atlanta, Georgia, US: What evidence is there of widespread voter fraud? And is violence likely in this confrontation?

Stephen's answer: A considerable amount of evidence was cited by the OSCE observers. I do not currently think that violence is likely, but it cannot be ruled out as a possibility in the longer term.


Click here to read the election monitors' key findings

UKRAINIAN PEOPLE

Andrey, Russia: What is your personal opinion as an outsider: are Ukrainians like Russians?

Stephen's answer: I do not think Ukrainians are like Russians. In many countries, national consciousness began to emerge in the 19th Century, and this is true of Ukraine too. The Soviet Union acknowledged the difference between Ukrainians and Russians by recording some citizens as Russians and some as Ukrainians in their official documents. If most of the citizens of Ivano-Frankivsk identify themselves as Ukrainian, there is no ethnologist or historian who can tell them that they are wrong.

quote:

Op maandag 6 december 2004 22:48 schreef Stereotomy het volgende:
_{Ja, heb ook vrienden in Kiev tussen de tenten zitten, en nee op dit moment schieten ze niet echt goed met elkaar op}

quote:

Op vrijdag 10 december 2004 17:21 schreef HarigeKerel het volgende:
Eigenlijk denk ik dat de Oekraine beter af is onder de vleugels van de Russen met een verdrag op het gebied van vrijhandel met de EU.