Het lijkt erop dat het braafste jongetje spelen vooral als effect heeft dat je al snel vermanend wordt toegesproken als je een keertje wel buiten de afgesproken lijntjes kleurt. Duitsland voldoet ook niet maar dat mag ineens wel omdat een defensieuitgave itt "eenmalige overdracht van militaire pensioenverplichtingen" geen probleem is, en veel schromelijker tekorten bij landen zoals Roemenie en Frankrijk is minder problematisch omdat ze het eerst nog veel kutter deden, en in het geval van Frankrijk in theorie misschien wel de adviezen ter harte gaat nemen, ook al zouden ze bij de EU ook wel moeten weten dat elk op bezuinigingen gericht beleid er in Frankrijk toe leidt dat minimaal het halve land in de fik wordt gestoken.
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Separately, the Commission checked whether governments’ expected spending in 2026 complies with their five or seven-year plans that were approved by Brussels. So far, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Spain, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Malta aren’t doing enough. Failure to act could see Brussels reprimand the eight countries at the next European Semester in June.
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Finland: E
The Nordic state got a slap on the wrist from Brussels as its deficit is set to exceed the EU’s limit for the next two years. Once a paragon of fiscal stability, Finland is now in the same EDP basket as the indebted nations of France, Italy, and Belgium.
As a result, Helsinki will have to reduce the deficit. That’s a tall order for a country facing overstretched social and health budgets, as well as a ballooning defense bill.
Romania: D+
Romania can breathe a sigh of relief after today’s announcement. Dombrovskis praised the country’s recent economic reforms and ruled out triggering the nuclear option — a suspension of the country’s payouts from the EU budget, which are worth billions.
But the country is not out of the woods. At 8.4 percent of GDP, its 2025 deficit remains by far the highest in the EU, and painful domestic reforms will be required to reduce it significantly in the years to come.
Germany: C
The country’s budget deficit is expected to reach 3.1 percent of GDP this year. That’s technically a breach of the rules. But Brussels refrained from punishing the bloc’s economic powerhouse, because the breach is “fully explained by the increase in defense spending,” the Commission said in a statement.
But there is trouble ahead. Germany plans to continue its spending spree next year to juice growth, only curbing expenditure later. That won’t be easy, as China threatens the country's export-driven economy and Chancellor Friedrich Merz's grand coalition needs to deliver reforms to revive growth. Berlin is taking a huge gamble. Brussels too.
France: C-
France is in the middle of a budget crisis and is not even sure that it will manage to adopt the 2026 budget by the end of this year. That doesn’t seem to worry Brussels too much for the time being, especially considering that France received its EDP red flag in 2023. The Commission found that the French budget plans for next year are compliant with its recommendations and encouraged Paris to continue on this path.
But not even France’s prime minister knows what his budget for next year will look like. Sébastien Lecornu has pledged to bring the deficit down to 5 percent of GDP. But that goal is at risk, as contradictory amendments to the draft budget in parliament undermine the chances of a deal before Christmas.
Hungary: F
Hungary is facing a worrying situation because it’s not making the necessary cuts in 2026 to exit the EDP.
For now, the Commission has merely warned Hungary to cut spending in 2026. But if Budapest ignores such calls, Brussels might threaten to issue fines during its next budget review in Spring.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is unlikely to heed Brussels’ calls as the country is heading to the polls next spring and he faces the risk of losing power after almost a decade.
Italy: B-
Has Europe’s perennial fiscal bad boy turned good? That’s what it looks like, with Italy’s deficit set to fall to 2.6 percent of GDP next year, while government spending is forecast to stay below the limits imposed by the EU’s fiscal rules. That puts it on track to exit its EDP, if it can prove that debt is set to trend lower in the long term. Other good news: Rome’s tax take is trending above economic growth, helping to fill its coffers and pay down debt.
It’s not all good news. Italy remains the second-most indebted country in the EU. That isn’t changing next year, with government debt expected to increase to 137.9 percent of GDP. But any positive change is welcome, especially when it’s the class clown who is finally hitting the books.
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