Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #6:

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Solar activity ramps up with three X-class and over 20 M-class solar flares in 24 hours

Solar activity increased to high levels on December 29 and 30, 2024, producing more than 20 M- and 3 X-class solar flares in just over 24 hours. At least one of these events produced an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) — with impact expected on December 31. As a result, a G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.

A major solar flare measuring X1.5 erupted from Active Region (AR) 3936 at 04:14 UTC on December 30, 2024. The event started at 04:01 and ended at 04:28 UTC. The flare was associated with a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) from 04:08 to 04:15 UTC, with a peak flux of 1 000 sfu.

This event was followed by an impulsive X1.1 flare, which started at 04:29 and peaked at 04:31 UTC. This major event ended at 04:34 UTC and was produced by AR 3932. A tenflare lasting 2 minutes with a peak flux of 430 sfu was registered from 04:29 to 04:31 UTC.

A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can indicate significant radio noise associated with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean, SE Asia, and Australia at the time of flare events.

X1.1 solar flare on December 29
The two X-class flares today follow a major X1.1 flare from AR 3936 at 07:18 UTC on December 29 and a flurry of M-class flares that began with an M1.0 at 02:35 UTC on December 29.

Eight M-class flares were produced before the X1.1 and another 13 before the end of the UTC day, making a total of 21 M-class and 1 X-class solar flares during the day.

Two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed after yesterday’s X1.1 solar flare event.

The first was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 08:48 UTC and appeared to be a sympathetic event that originated in the vicinity of AR 3933.

The second was seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 09:12 UTC as a northwesterly front possibly driven by the aforementioned X1.1 event.

Modeling of both of these CMEs suggests that they will miss south and ahead of Earth, respectively, according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

Other notable flares from AR 3936 included an M4.2 flare at 07:59 UTC and an M7.2 at 15:09 UTC. Region 3939 produced numerous M-class flares as well.

Earth-directed CME
A filament eruption that was associated with an M2.0 flare at 04:30 UTC on December 29 from AR 3939 resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery at approximately 06:24 UTC.

“Analysis and modeling of this CME indicated an Earth-directed event with arrival at Earth by mid-UTC day on December 31,” SWPC forecasters said.

Additionally, AR 3939 produced an M3.3 flare at 17:08 UTC that appeared to have resulted in yet another partial-halo CME, although a more faint, first seen in NASA coronagraph imagery around 18:00 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event is ongoing.

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Op vrijdag 28 maart 2025 17:58 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 2 June. A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 30 May. The CME is anticipated to arrive at Earth later on Sunday, 1 June. The CME arrival will likely lead to immediate geomagnetic disturbances with the potential for G3 (Strong) levels, and a chance for G4. Conditions will likely intensify as CME progression continues and G4 levels become more possible on Monday, 2 June. Geomagnetic storm levels will likely begin subsiding by Tuesday, 3 June, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) still possible. Confidence in an Earth-arrival component to this CME is good. However, timing and intensity are more uncertain. These watches represent potential based on our best analyses. We will not know the true nature of this CME’s geomagnetic storm potential until the CME arrives at our solar wind observatories located 1 million miles from Earth. Upon arrival at those spacecraft, we will know the magnetic strength and orientation that are very important to what levels and duration of geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to occur. As always visit our website for the latest information and updates.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov(...)ffect-2-june-utc-day

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Op zondag 1 juni 2025 07:35 schreef Houtenbeen het volgende:
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