Zeer zware orkaan Michael (Categorie 4) teistert Florida

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Op woensdag 10 oktober 2018 01:48 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Inmiddels categorie 3 en lijkt nog krachtiger te worden.

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Intensity forecast: Cat 3 or 4 at landfall
If Michael does manage to form a complete eyewall, a period of more rapid deepening may ensue, where the central pressure drops to the 930 – 935 mb range by landfall. A pressure of this magnitude would be capable of driving peak sustained winds of 145 - 150 mph. However, there is typically a lag of about 4 - 6 hours between when the pressure falls and when the winds catch up to the new lower pressure, and Michael may make landfall before its winds can respond to any explosive deepening phase.

The official NHC intensity forecast at 5 pm EDT Tuesday called for Michael to be a high-end Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds at 2 pm Wednesday, a few hours before the time of landfall. Given the uncertainties in intensity forecasting, we should not be surprised if Michael was anywhere from a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds at landfall. The 12Z Tuesday run of our top intensity model from 2017, the HWRF model, predicted landfall early Wednesday afternoon as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 – 120 mph winds. The 12Z Tuesday run of the HMON model predicted landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds. Our other two top intensity models, the DSHIPS and LGEM, predicted that Michael would make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record).

Our two most reliable rapid intensity forecasting models, the SHIPS and DTOPS, predicted with their 18Z Tuesday forecasts that Michael had a 24% chance of becoming a mid-strength Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds before landfall. SHIPS is the model NHC uses operationally to forecast rapid intensification, and DTOPS is an experimental model that NHC started evaluating last year.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near 29°C (84°F) across the eastern Gulf, which is 1 - 2°C (2 - 4°F) above average for this time of year. Even though it is early October, no cold fronts have yet chilled the waters near the central Gulf Coast, so very warm surface waters are in place to support Michael right up to landfall.