Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #4:

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M6.5 solar flare erupts from Region 3296, CME produced on May 7 heading our way

A moderately strong M6.5 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3296 at 03:54 UTC on May 9, 2023. The event started at 03:42 and ended at 04:05 UTC. This was the 12th M-class solar flare since M4.3 on May 3. It was followed by M1.2 at 06:13 UTC, also from Region 3296. The CME produced on May 7 was modeled and analyzed and the likely result is impact to Earth late on May 10 to early May 11.

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 641 km/s was registered at 03:53 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 6 minutes and with a peak flux of 360 sfu, was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

The location of Region 3296 (beta-gamma) still favors Earth-directed CMEs.

The region underwent growth in the intermediate section and some decay in the leader area over the past 24 hours. The mixed polarity signature strengthened, nearly developed a delta signature, and was the source of multiple C-class flares, including the largest of the period, an M2.3 flare at 20:25 UTC on May 8.

The partial halo CME first detected in NASA SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery at 23:12 UTC on May 7 UTC produced by a long-duration M1 flare late May 7 was analyzed and modeled several times. The concurrence is a likely Earth-directed component to this CME from late May 10 to early May 11. However, there is a disparity in model results regarding flanking influences or a more pronounced geoeffective arrival.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 – Minor storm levels at 11:50 UTC on May 9 and the storm is still in progress. A general decline in levels is anticipated and sub-S1 levels are likely by May 10, with a chance that S1 levels may still be occurring.

Continuing, gradual decrease in flux is expected and a return to background conditions, albeit elevated levels, are anticipated on 11 May. There is also a slight chance that S1 levels may still be reached. There is also a risk of a re-enhancement ahead of a CME arrival later on May 10 to early May 11. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mainly normal-moderate levels, with a chance of high levels in response to the recent CH HSS and CME influences.