Zonnevlammen, Zonnestormen en CME #4:

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M6.5 solar flare erupts from Region 3296, CME produced on May 7 heading our way

A moderately strong M6.5 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3296 at 03:54 UTC on May 9, 2023. The event started at 03:42 and ended at 04:05 UTC. This was the 12th M-class solar flare since M4.3 on May 3. It was followed by M1.2 at 06:13 UTC, also from Region 3296. The CME produced on May 7 was modeled and analyzed and the likely result is impact to Earth late on May 10 to early May 11.

A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 641 km/s was registered at 03:53 UTC. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event.

In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 6 minutes and with a peak flux of 360 sfu, was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

The location of Region 3296 (beta-gamma) still favors Earth-directed CMEs.

The region underwent growth in the intermediate section and some decay in the leader area over the past 24 hours. The mixed polarity signature strengthened, nearly developed a delta signature, and was the source of multiple C-class flares, including the largest of the period, an M2.3 flare at 20:25 UTC on May 8.

The partial halo CME first detected in NASA SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery at 23:12 UTC on May 7 UTC produced by a long-duration M1 flare late May 7 was analyzed and modeled several times. The concurrence is a likely Earth-directed component to this CME from late May 10 to early May 11. However, there is a disparity in model results regarding flanking influences or a more pronounced geoeffective arrival.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 – Minor storm levels at 11:50 UTC on May 9 and the storm is still in progress. A general decline in levels is anticipated and sub-S1 levels are likely by May 10, with a chance that S1 levels may still be occurring.

Continuing, gradual decrease in flux is expected and a return to background conditions, albeit elevated levels, are anticipated on 11 May. There is also a slight chance that S1 levels may still be reached. There is also a risk of a re-enhancement ahead of a CME arrival later on May 10 to early May 11. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at mainly normal-moderate levels, with a chance of high levels in response to the recent CH HSS and CME influences.

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Moderately strong M6.8 solar flare erupts from the NE limb of the Sun

A moderately strong solar flare measuring M6.8 erupted from a region located on the northeastern limb of the Sun at 18:08 UTC on July 11, 2023. The event started at 17:51 and ended at 18:16 UTC.

There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of the source region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. This will change in the days ahead as the region rotates toward the center of the disk.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the United States, Canada, Central America, and parts of South America at the time of the flare.

Over the past 24 hours, this region produced several C-class flares, including a C8.0 at 02:14 UTC on July 11.

Solar activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with several M-class flares, including M2.3 at 03:55 UTC and M1.4 at 22:18 UTC on July 10, followed by M2.0 at 14:35 UTC, M1.1 at 16:12 UTC, the aforementioned M6.8 at 18:08 and M1.0 at 19:29 UTC.

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M1 – M2 (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X1 (R3/Strong) flare through July 13, according to SWPC.

In 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux flirted with high levels, but fell just short with a maximum of 933 pfu at 18:10 UTC yesterday. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at or near background levels. A slight enhancement was associated with the M2 flare early on July 10. A CME produced by this flare was extensively modeled and all SWPC results show the primary ejecta missing Earth ahead of its orbit. However, some possible shock arrival influences cannot be ruled out on July 12.

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 315 – 350 km/s, the total field ranged from 4 – 6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

Moderately strong M6.8 solar flare erupts from the NE limb of the Sun