WKN Weer, Klimaat en Natuurrampen
Lees alles over het onstuimige weer op onze planeet, volg orkanen en tornado's, zie hoe vulkanen uitbarsten en hoe Moeder Aarde beeft bij een aardbeving. Alles over de verwoestende kracht van onze planeet en tal van andere natuurverschijnselen.
Nadat orkaan Danny vorige week een deel van het Atlantische gebied onveilig maakte is het nu de beurt aan Erika. Danny was in staat om uit te groeien tot een sterke categorie 3 orkaan maar kon die kracht niet vasthouden. De windschering en de grote hoeveelheden saharastof rukten de orkaan echter aan flarden en dat voorkwam dat de orkaan grote schade aan zou richten op eilanden in de Caraïben .
Feit is wel dat Danny mogelijk het pad geëffend heeft voor de volgende tropische ontwikkeling. Deze tropische golf is inmiddels opgewaardeerd tot Tropische Storm Erika. De vijandige omstandigheden waar Danny mee te maken had zijn nu een stuk minder voor Erika.
De verwachting is op dit moment dat Erika zaterdag zal zijn opgewaardeerd tot orkaan. Tot dan zal ze de Bovenwindse Eilanden, de Dominicaanse Republiek en Haïti van het nodige water gaan voorzien. Daarna zal ze via de Florida Keys richting Florida en de oostkust van de VS trekken
Het is nog ver weg en er kan nog veel gebeuren. Danny maakte ook een opmerkelijke sprong naar Categorie 3 en wellicht doet Erika dat ook. Het weerbeeld kan op deze termijn ook nog veranderen en veel zal ook afhangen wat het daadwerkelijke pad van Erika zal zijn.
De twee weermodellen van ECMWF en HWRF geven op dit moment een slechte voorstelling van zaken. Op de laatste run voorspellen ze dat Erika mogelijk tot categorie 4 orkaan gaat uitgroeien en in de loop van volgende week dan voor de Amerikaanse oostkust zal liggen.
Meer weten over orkanen?
WKN / Hurricane Season 2015 #1: Orkanen & cyclonen wereldwijd
Feit is wel dat Danny mogelijk het pad geëffend heeft voor de volgende tropische ontwikkeling. Deze tropische golf is inmiddels opgewaardeerd tot Tropische Storm Erika. De vijandige omstandigheden waar Danny mee te maken had zijn nu een stuk minder voor Erika.
De verwachting is op dit moment dat Erika zaterdag zal zijn opgewaardeerd tot orkaan. Tot dan zal ze de Bovenwindse Eilanden, de Dominicaanse Republiek en Haïti van het nodige water gaan voorzien. Daarna zal ze via de Florida Keys richting Florida en de oostkust van de VS trekken
Het is nog ver weg en er kan nog veel gebeuren. Danny maakte ook een opmerkelijke sprong naar Categorie 3 en wellicht doet Erika dat ook. Het weerbeeld kan op deze termijn ook nog veranderen en veel zal ook afhangen wat het daadwerkelijke pad van Erika zal zijn.
De twee weermodellen van ECMWF en HWRF geven op dit moment een slechte voorstelling van zaken. Op de laatste run voorspellen ze dat Erika mogelijk tot categorie 4 orkaan gaat uitgroeien en in de loop van volgende week dan voor de Amerikaanse oostkust zal liggen.
Meer weten over orkanen?
WKN / Hurricane Season 2015 #1: Orkanen & cyclonen wereldwijd
quote:Op dinsdag 25 augustus 2015 16:35 schreef nattermann het volgende:
Interessant, vlieg over 2 weken naar Mexico dus even volgen.
Tics van je petten.
http://www.wunderground.c(...)t.html?entrynum=3088quote:Erika’s large size will make it slower to organize and intensify than Danny, while also helping to protect the storm from any rapid decay down the line. Track models are fairly consistent in bringing Erika to the Bahamas by this weekend, but there remain big questions in how much and how quickly Erika will intensify during that time. Model guidance has continued to strengthen Erika only very gradually over the next 2 to 4 days. The most reliable longer-range dynamical models have been pessismistic on Erika’s future, with the 1200 GMT Tuesday runs of the GFS and ECMWF (as well as more recent GFS runs) weakening the storm to an open wave by this weekend. Statistical guidance, which tends to perform the best at intensity beyond about 3 days, suggested at 0000 GMT Wednesday that Erika might be only a strong tropical storm by Day 5 (late Sunday, August 30). Meanwhile, the last several runs of the two top high-resolution models (GFDL and HWRF) have sent Erika into fairly rapid intensification mode by days 4 and 5, when the storm should be over the very warm waters of the Bahamas (more than 30°C or 86°F). Before then, Erika will need to barrel through a ribbon of high-level, shear-producing westerly winds, perhaps a key reason why most models are putting little stock in Erika’s shorter-term future. Interaction with Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola may also be an issue, as Erika is generally predicted to track near or just north of those islands.
Should Erika make it to the Bahamas as a well-organized tropical storm, the picture could change dramatically. This is a very favored spot climatologically for hurricane development, especially in late August and early September. The GFS and ECMWF models from 1200 GMT Tuesday, and the GFS model from 1800 GMT Tuesday, agreed on moving Erika or its remnants toward Florida, as an upper-level ridge builds over and to the northeast of Erika. The 11:00 pm EDT Tuesday forecast from NHC brings Erika to within a half-day of the Florida coast as a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday night, August 30 (see Figure 2). Unlike many systems in recent years, Erika could approach Florida with a weak upper-level trough located well to the west of the state (see Figure 3 below), which would make an immediate recurvature less likely. Putting aside the very valid question of Erika’s durability over the next several days, the overall pattern is the most favorable I’ve seen in a long time for a potential Florida landfall. It has been nearly 10 years since a hurricane has reached Florida’s coastline, the last being Hurricane Wilma (also the nation’s most recent hurricane that was rated Category 3 at landfall on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WInd Scale). Since records began in 1851, this is by far the state’s longest “hurricane drought,” beating out the five hurricane-free seasons from 1980 to 1984. If nothing else, any development of Erika would serve to dislodge any misplaced confidence that the state’s hurricane risk has somehow withered over the last decade.
EC laat nu landfall zien op Florida, waarna de orkaan richting het noorden trekt en weer in de Atlantische oceaan terecht komt.
Dat denk ik ook. Florida is al lang gespaard gebleven de laatste jaren.quote:
Als Erika de windschering de komende 48 uur overleeft hebben ze daar een groot probleem
31 augustus is het ook nog springtij. De verwachting is dat het systeem dan landfall zal maken.
Kan serieus gaan worden dit. Ook voor de Bahama's en andere eilandjes op het pad van Erika.
Kan serieus gaan worden dit. Ook voor de Bahama's en andere eilandjes op het pad van Erika.
967 mb is vergelijkbaar met een categorie 2 orkaan. Met springtij er bij dan zit je al snel op een stormsurge van 3.5 meter (?).
Nu nog een oase van rust.
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-florida_5611/
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/indialantic-florida_4422/
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/lake-worth-pier-florida_5604/
[ Bericht 25% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 26-08-2015 13:57:55 ]
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/juno-pier-florida_5611/
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/indialantic-florida_4422/
http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/lake-worth-pier-florida_5604/
[ Bericht 25% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 26-08-2015 13:57:55 ]
Inmiddels lijkt het pad weer iets meer naar het oosten te liggen...quote:Op donderdag 27 augustus 2015 03:19 schreef aloa het volgende:
Meerdere models komen nu met Erika bij de kust van Florida.
veel onzekerheden nog... ook over de kracht
En EC laat ook weer een andere koers zien nu. De meeste modellen laten haar activeren voor de kust van Florida, waarna het noordwaarts trekt en op zee blijft, terwijl EC nu landfall laat zien in Florida.quote:
[..]
Inmiddels lijkt het pad weer iets meer naar het oosten te liggen...
veel onzekerheden nog... ook over de kracht
De Leeward eilanden krijgen nu Erika over zich heen. Het kan daar voor wateroverlast en schade gaan zorgen.
Erika sloopt Dominica...
Video's
https://www.facebook.com/(...)2451329/?pnref=story
https://instagram.com/p/640R_NoVal/
Video's
https://www.facebook.com/(...)2451329/?pnref=story
https://instagram.com/p/640R_NoVal/
Enorme wateroverlast.
Wat een monster.
4 Killed in Dominica as Tropical Storm Erika Hits Island
ROSEAU, Dominica — Tropical Storm Erika pounded the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica on Thursday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed at least four people and knocked out power and water supplies.
The storm, which was forecast to reach Florida as a hurricane by Monday, dumped 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain on Dominica late Wednesday, followed by another 6 inches (15 centimeters) early Thursday, according to the weather service in the nearby island of Antigua.
Police Superintendent Daniel Carbon said three of the deaths occurred during a mudslide in the southeast of the island. Authorities recovered the bodies of an elderly blind man and two children from the home.
A fourth death occurred in the capital of Roseau. The man was found near his home following a mudslide but the cause of death has not yet been determined, Carbon told The Associated Press.
Even though the eye had passed, heavy wind and rain were still buffeting the island known for its lush forests and steep terrain, and authorities had yet to do a full damage assessment.
"We're advising people to stay put," Carbon said, adding that they have received reports of several injuries but that he had no details.
About 80 percent of the island was without electricity, and water supply was cut off, authorities said. The main airport was closed due to flooding, with water rushing over cars and at least one small plane, and the scaffolding of some buildings collapsed.
The main river that cuts through the capital overflowed its banks and surging water crashed into the principal bridge that leads into Roseau, whose roads were littered with fallen trees and light poles. Some streets were turned into fast-flowing rivers.
"The situation is grim. It is dangerous," said Ian Pinard, Dominica's communications minister.
Erika was centered about 160 miles (255 kilometers) west of Guadeloupe, and was moving west at 16 mph (26 kph) with maximum sustained winds that had slipped slightly to 45 mph (75 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Erika was expected to move near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday and be near or just north of the Dominican Republic on Friday as it heads toward South Florida early next week. The storm was not expected to gain strength in the next two days.
Erika is now more likely to hit the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, said chief forecaster James Franklin at the National Hurricane Center.
"That would certainly not be good news for Hispaniola," he said. "They're very vulnerable to flooding. And even if Erika is a weak system, that could be very bad there."
Officials shuttered schools, government offices and businesses across the region and warned of flash flooding because of dry conditions caused by the worst drought to hit the Caribbean in recent years. Authorities warned power and water service might be temporarily cut off.
Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla said the storm could bring badly needed rains to the parched U.S. territory.
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"We're happy given the dry conditions, but it does highlight the need to be on alert," he said, adding that heavy downpours could lead to flash floods.
Garcia activated the National Guard as a precaution and asked that everyone head home by noon on Thursday.
The heaviest rains were expected to hit Puerto Rico's eastern region, with the storm expected to pass about 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of the island overnight Thursday, said Odalys Martinez, with the National Weather Service in San Juan.
Dozens of flights were canceled in the region, and the U.S. Coast Guard closed all ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
http://www.nytimes.com/ap(...)al-weather.html?_r=0
ROSEAU, Dominica — Tropical Storm Erika pounded the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica on Thursday, unleashing flooding and mudslides that killed at least four people and knocked out power and water supplies.
The storm, which was forecast to reach Florida as a hurricane by Monday, dumped 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain on Dominica late Wednesday, followed by another 6 inches (15 centimeters) early Thursday, according to the weather service in the nearby island of Antigua.
Police Superintendent Daniel Carbon said three of the deaths occurred during a mudslide in the southeast of the island. Authorities recovered the bodies of an elderly blind man and two children from the home.
A fourth death occurred in the capital of Roseau. The man was found near his home following a mudslide but the cause of death has not yet been determined, Carbon told The Associated Press.
Even though the eye had passed, heavy wind and rain were still buffeting the island known for its lush forests and steep terrain, and authorities had yet to do a full damage assessment.
"We're advising people to stay put," Carbon said, adding that they have received reports of several injuries but that he had no details.
About 80 percent of the island was without electricity, and water supply was cut off, authorities said. The main airport was closed due to flooding, with water rushing over cars and at least one small plane, and the scaffolding of some buildings collapsed.
The main river that cuts through the capital overflowed its banks and surging water crashed into the principal bridge that leads into Roseau, whose roads were littered with fallen trees and light poles. Some streets were turned into fast-flowing rivers.
"The situation is grim. It is dangerous," said Ian Pinard, Dominica's communications minister.
Erika was centered about 160 miles (255 kilometers) west of Guadeloupe, and was moving west at 16 mph (26 kph) with maximum sustained winds that had slipped slightly to 45 mph (75 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Erika was expected to move near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Thursday and be near or just north of the Dominican Republic on Friday as it heads toward South Florida early next week. The storm was not expected to gain strength in the next two days.
Erika is now more likely to hit the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, said chief forecaster James Franklin at the National Hurricane Center.
"That would certainly not be good news for Hispaniola," he said. "They're very vulnerable to flooding. And even if Erika is a weak system, that could be very bad there."
Officials shuttered schools, government offices and businesses across the region and warned of flash flooding because of dry conditions caused by the worst drought to hit the Caribbean in recent years. Authorities warned power and water service might be temporarily cut off.
Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla said the storm could bring badly needed rains to the parched U.S. territory.
Advertisement
Continue reading the main story
Advertisement
Continue reading the main story
"We're happy given the dry conditions, but it does highlight the need to be on alert," he said, adding that heavy downpours could lead to flash floods.
Garcia activated the National Guard as a precaution and asked that everyone head home by noon on Thursday.
The heaviest rains were expected to hit Puerto Rico's eastern region, with the storm expected to pass about 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of the island overnight Thursday, said Odalys Martinez, with the National Weather Service in San Juan.
Dozens of flights were canceled in the region, and the U.S. Coast Guard closed all ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
http://www.nytimes.com/ap(...)al-weather.html?_r=0
Ben nu in Ft. Myers, wordt waarschijnlijk een evac komend weekend als Erika koers houdt. Overigens lijkt niemand zich hier in SoFL echt druk te maken.
Dan zit je, zoals het nu lijkt, aan de goede kant van Florida.quote:
Ben nu in Ft. Myers, wordt waarschijnlijk een evac komend weekend als Erika koers houdt. Overigens lijkt niemand zich hier in SoFL echt druk te maken.
Kan ook nog zo zijn dat ze in de Golf terecht komt...dan trekt het recht over je stad heen.
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