Bulls, Bears & Bucks #74 China gaat als eerste

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2016 20:01 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Het IMF leest te weinig mee op FOK! Als ze af en toe het AEX forum hadden bezocht dan hadden ze niet zo voor lul hoeven staan.

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2016 20:05 schreef Rene_Froger het volgende:

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Zo erg lijkt dat mij niet, toch? Zelfs al zou de groei veel lager uitvallen, zeg maar 5%, dan is dat nog altijd aardig.

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2016 20:01 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Het IMF leest te weinig mee op FOK! Als ze af en toe het AEX forum hadden bezocht dan hadden ze niet zo voor lul hoeven staan.

[ afbeelding ]

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2016 20:13 schreef Kaas- het volgende:
Overigens zijn de Chinezen al minder arm dan ik dacht. Het GDP/capita ligt er volgens de Wereldbank op een vergelijkbaar niveau met Bulgarije en hoger dan in Montenegro, Zuid-Afrika, Servië, Thailand, Bosnië en Albanië. En het varieert natuurlijk enorm binnen het gigantische land.

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Op dinsdag 19 januari 2016 20:01 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Het IMF leest te weinig mee op FOK! Als ze af en toe het AEX forum hadden bezocht dan hadden ze niet zo voor lul hoeven staan.

[ afbeelding ]

SPOILER

Om spoilers te kunnen lezen moet je zijn ingelogd. Je moet je daarvoor eerst gratis Registreren. Ook kun je spoilers niet lezen als je een ban hebt.

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High-Speed Firms Now Oversee Almost All Stocks At NYSE Floor
Barclays, one of the biggest banking and financial services firms in the world, has sold its business on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to Global Trading Systems. This is significant because it marks a transition between human-based trading and high-speed trading. Now, humans on the NYSE floor have more of a supervisory role, making sure the automated systems don't go haywire.

Barclays has been around for hundreds of years; GTS was founded in 2006. "There used to be dozens of specialist firms, as designated market makers were once known, at the NYSE floor. But profits from trading U.S. stocks dwindled, making it difficult to serve as market makers without automation. Although GTS, Virtu, IMC and KCG employ human traders at the floor, their businesses are driven by some of the industry's most sophisticated computer systems."

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Op donderdag 28 januari 2016 11:25 schreef Aether het volgende:

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Japan adopts negative interest rate in surprise move

In a surprise move, the Bank of Japan has introduced a negative interest rate.

The benchmark rate of -0.1% means that commercial banks will be charged by the central bank for some deposits.

It is designed to encourage them to use their reserves to lend to businesses in an attempt to counter Japan's economic stagnation.

The charge does not directly apply to ordinary customers' accounts.

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Op vrijdag 29 januari 2016 17:06 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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Our Dysfunctional Monetary System

The great tragedy of the global economic malaise is that it is caused by a shortage of something that is essentially costless to produce: money.

Both banks and governments can produce money at physically trivial costs. Banks create money by creating a loan, and the establishment costs of a loan are miniscule compared to the value of the money created by it—of the order of $3 for every $100 created.

Governments create money by running a deficit—by spending more on the public than they get back from the public in taxes. As inefficient as government might be, that process too costs a tiny amount, compared to the amount of money generated by the deficit itself.

But despite how easy the money creation process is, in the aftermath to the 2008 crisis, both banks and governments are doing a lousy job of producing the money the public needs, for two very different reasons.

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Warren: Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch Received $6 Trillion Backdoor Bailout from Fed

“During the financial crisis, Congress bailed out the big banks with hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer money; and that’s a lot of money. But the biggest money for the biggest banks was never voted on by Congress. Instead, between 2007 and 2009, the Fed provided over $13 trillion in emergency lending to just a handful of large financial institutions. That’s nearly 20 times the amount authorized in the TARP bailout.

“Now, let’s be clear, those Fed loans were a bailout too. Nearly all the money went to too-big-to-fail institutions. For example, in one emergency lending program, the Fed put out $9 trillion and over two-thirds of the money went to just three institutions: Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

“Those loans were made available at rock bottom interest rates – in many cases under 1 percent. And the loans could be continuously rolled over so they were effectively available for an average of about two years.”

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What’s Holding Back the World Economy?

NEW YORK – Seven years after the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, the world economy continued to stumble in 2015. According to the United Nations’ report World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016, the average growth rate in developed economies has declined by more than 54% since the crisis. An estimated 44 million people are unemployed in developed countries, about 12 million more than in 2007, while inflation has reached its lowest level since the crisis.

More worryingly, advanced countries’ growth rates have also become more volatile. This is surprising, because, as developed economies with fully open capital accounts, they should have benefited from the free flow of capital and international risk sharing – and thus experienced little macroeconomic volatility. Furthermore, social transfers, including unemployment benefits, should have allowed households to stabilize their consumption.

But the dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse.

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Op woensdag 17 februari 2016 22:27 schreef Aether het volgende:
China's subprime crisis is here.

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The Economist: Unfamiliar ways forward

Pessimism among investors reflects not just the indicators pointing towards recession. There is a deeper concern that, if or when that recession comes, policymakers will have very few options for dealing with it. Short-term interest rates are close to zero in most of the rich world. The scope for adding further pep through quantitative easing, (QE, the purchase of government bonds using central-bank money) is limited. Long-term interest rates are already low; driving them lower with another round of QE is unlikely to invigorate aggregate demand much more. Tax cuts or increases in public spending could still be effective in fighting recession. But investors worry that there is little scope or appetite for financing a fiscal stimulus with yet more debt. Public debt in America rose from 64% of GDP in 2008 to 104% by 2015; in the euro area, it rose from 66% to 93%; in Japan, from 176% to 237%.

If policymakers appear defenceless in the face of a fresh threat to the world economy, it is in part because they have so little to show for their past efforts. The balance-sheets of the rich world’s main central banks have been pumped up to between 20% and 25% of GDP by the successive bouts of QE with which they have injected money into their economies (see chart 1). The Bank of Japan’s assets are a whopping 77% of GDP. Yet inflation has been persistently below the 2% goal that central banks aim for. In America, Britain and Japan, unemployment has fallen close to pre-crisis levels. But the productivity of those in work has grown at a dismal rate, meaning overall GDP growth has been sluggish. That limits the scope for increases in real wages and in the tax receipts needed to service government debt.

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Op donderdag 25 februari 2016 16:55 schreef Perrin het volgende:

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FT via google: World trade records biggest reversal since crisis

Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, highlighting rising fears about the health of the global economy.

The value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 13.8 per cent in dollar terms — the first contraction since 2009 — according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis’s World Trade Monitor. Much of the slump was due to a slowdown in China and other emerging economies.

The new data released on Thursday represent the first snapshot of global trade for 2015. But the figures also come amid growing concerns that 2016 is already shaping up to be more fraught with dangers for the global economy than previously expected.

Those concerns are casting a shadow over a two-day meeting of G20 central bank governors and finance ministers due to start on Friday. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, was set to warn the gathering that the global economy risked “becoming trapped in a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate equilibrium”.

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Mark Carney issues stark warning on global growth as storm clouds gather

Mark Carney has warned that Britain and other countries risk becoming trapped in a world of low growth unless governments implement vital reforms.

The Governor of the Bank of England warned that "sizeable downside risks" were currently "plaguing" the global outlook.

Speaking at the G20 meeting in Shanghai, China, he said the current "low growth, low inflation and low interest rate" environment could become permanent unless governments stop relying solely on central banks to boost demand.

While Mr Carney stressed that central banks had not run out of ammunition and could still "buy time" for economies to reform and find new channels of growth, he said monetary firepower was not a panacea for the problems currently facing the global economy.

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CBS: aantal mensen in de bijstand blijft groeien

In de loop van 2015 leek het aantal bijstandsgerechtigden zich nog te stabiliseren.

Het aantal Nederlanders dat recht heeft op bijstand is in 2015 opnieuw gegroeid. Vooral in de leeftijdscategorieën onder de 27 jaar en boven de 45 jaar kwamen meer bijstandsgerechtigden bij. Dat heeft het Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) berekend.

Eind 2015 telde het CBS 450.000 bijstandsgerechtigden tegenover 434.000 een jaar eerder. Dit betekent een stijging van bijna 3,7 procent.