WKN Weer, Klimaat en Natuurrampen
Lees alles over het onstuimige weer op onze planeet, volg orkanen en tornado's, zie hoe vulkanen uitbarsten en hoe Moeder Aarde beeft bij een aardbeving. Alles over de verwoestende kracht van onze planeet en tal van andere natuurverschijnselen.
Waar zie je dat? Ik zie tot nu toe een cat.1 als landfall in Luzon?quote:Op woensdag 1 april 2015 08:17 schreef aloa het volgende:
De verwachting voor de Filipijnen is ook bijgesteld naar een cat 3 tijdens landfall.
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Men verwacht een rustig orkaan seizoen in 2015. Maar één is genoeg om er een verwoestend seizoen van te maken.
Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The 2015 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (15% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (15% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 22% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2015 hurricane season may resemble: 2014 (which featured 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1993 (8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1991, featuring Hurricane Bob, which hit Long Island, New York as a Category 2 storm; 1987 (7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane); and 1957, which featured the deadliest June hurricane on record, Hurricane Audrey, which killed 416 people in Texas and Louisiana. These five years all had at least moderate El Niño conditions and cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic. The average activity for these years was 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
http://www.wunderground.c(...)t.html?entrynum=2957
Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The 2015 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (15% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (15% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 22% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Five years with similar pre-season February and March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2015 hurricane season may resemble: 2014 (which featured 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1993 (8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes); 1991, featuring Hurricane Bob, which hit Long Island, New York as a Category 2 storm; 1987 (7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane); and 1957, which featured the deadliest June hurricane on record, Hurricane Audrey, which killed 416 people in Texas and Louisiana. These five years all had at least moderate El Niño conditions and cool Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic. The average activity for these years was 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
http://www.wunderground.c(...)t.html?entrynum=2957
quote:Isis en Odile geschrapt op namenlijst
De naam Isis wordt geschrapt van de lijst met orkaannamen. Isis was volgend jaar op de alfabetische lijst aan de beurt, maar de meteorologische dienst van de Verenigde Naties vindt vanwege de associatie met de terreurgroep Islamitische Staat (IS, ook wel ISIS of ISIL) een andere naam beter.
Isis wordt vervangen door Ivette. De 27 landen die bij het meteorologische dienst van de VN zijn aangesloten, hebben unaniem ingestemd met de naamswijziging.
Namen van orkanen staan van tevoren vast. Er wordt elke zes jaar een nieuwe alfabetische lijst afgewerkt.
Odile
Soms wordt een naam geschrapt als een eerdere orkaan met dezelfde naam veel slachtoffers heeft veroorzaakt of veel schade heeft aangericht.
Zo heeft Mexico gevraagd om de naam Odile van de namenlijst af te halen, omdat orkaan Odile in september veel overlast heeft veroorzaakt in het land. Tienduizenden toeristen werden geëvacueerd en Odile richtte flink wat schade aan. Odile is op de lijst Odalys geworden.
Vroeg begin van het seizoen? Lange termijn laat wat zien bij Florida.
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 29-04-2015 07:42:37 ]
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 29-04-2015 07:42:37 ]
Hier de namen voor komend seizoen. De eerste (Ana) kan binnenkort een feit zijn.
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 30-04-2015 12:38:18 ]
[ Bericht 0% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 30-04-2015 12:38:18 ]
Ana was ook de naam van de eerste storm in april.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ana_(2003)
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Ana_(2003)
twitter:weatherchannel twitterde op donderdag 21-05-2015 om 22:15:01 Increasing chance for pair of disturbances in E. #Pacific Ocean to develop into tropical cyclones in next 5 days. http://t.co/Wn02TxrYZV reageer retweet
Increasing chance for pair of disturbances in E. 
Oostpacific
For the 2015 hurricane season, we estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity:
15-22 named storms,
7-12 hurricanes,
5-8 major hurricanes,
An ACE range 110%-190% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
The predicted ranges are centered above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 27-05-2015 19:56:28 ]
For the 2015 hurricane season, we estimate a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity:
15-22 named storms,
7-12 hurricanes,
5-8 major hurricanes,
An ACE range 110%-190% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
The predicted ranges are centered above the official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
[ Bericht 2% gewijzigd door #ANONIEM op 27-05-2015 19:56:28 ]
Weinig orkanen verwacht dit seizoen.
TSR predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) will be out later today, and I will update this post with their latest numbers. Their April 9 forecast called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 56.
CSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The next CSU forecast is due on Monday, June 1, and will receive a lot of media attention. My April 9 blog post has more on their forecast.
UKMET office predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 21, calls for below-normal activity, with 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 74 occurring during the period June - November. If we add in Tropical Storm Ana, these numbers come out to 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using a dynamical global seasonal model, the Met Office GloSea5 system.
WSI predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The May 27 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. WSI cites the expectation of El Niño conditions this fall as a key factor influencing their forecast.
Penn State predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, plus or minus 2.7 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that in 2015 the mid-May -0.18°C departure of temperature from average in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be moderate, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.
The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:
2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12 named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 11 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14
2014 prediction: 9 named storms, Actual: 8
NCSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 5 named storms
The April 19 forecast from North Carolina State University (NCSU), is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.
Coastal Carolina University predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The April 17 forecast from Coastal Carolina University is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.
Cuban Met service predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 4 forecast from the Cuban Meteorological Service, INSMET, is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes. The forecast is based on a statistical prediction model developed by Ballester, González and Pérez (2010).
TSR predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) will be out later today, and I will update this post with their latest numbers. Their April 9 forecast called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 56.
CSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The next CSU forecast is due on Monday, June 1, and will receive a lot of media attention. My April 9 blog post has more on their forecast.
UKMET office predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 21, calls for below-normal activity, with 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 74 occurring during the period June - November. If we add in Tropical Storm Ana, these numbers come out to 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using a dynamical global seasonal model, the Met Office GloSea5 system.
WSI predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The May 27 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. WSI cites the expectation of El Niño conditions this fall as a key factor influencing their forecast.
Penn State predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, plus or minus 2.7 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that in 2015 the mid-May -0.18°C departure of temperature from average in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be moderate, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.
The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:
2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12 named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 11 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14
2014 prediction: 9 named storms, Actual: 8
NCSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 5 named storms
The April 19 forecast from North Carolina State University (NCSU), is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.
Coastal Carolina University predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The April 17 forecast from Coastal Carolina University is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.
Cuban Met service predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 4 forecast from the Cuban Meteorological Service, INSMET, is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes. The forecast is based on a statistical prediction model developed by Ballester, González and Pérez (2010).
Alleen nemen ze in de west pacific waarschijnlijk juist toe.quote:
Heeft zo'n z'n voordelen, een El Nino...
Dat effect valt toch nog mee? In de west pacific zijn de gevolgen op de aandrijvende wind niet zo groot als verder oostwaards.quote:Op donderdag 28 mei 2015 12:22 schreef aloa het volgende:
[..]
Alleen nemen ze in de west pacific waarschijnlijk juist toe.
100.000 katjes
Fuck the EBU!
Fuck the EBU!
Delen zijn droger, delen zijn natter. Maar het is idd meer voor het centrale deel van de Pacific.quote:
[..]
Dat effect valt toch nog mee? In de west pacific zijn de gevolgen op de aandrijvende wind niet zo groot als verder oostwaards.
Inmiddels twee orkanen in de oost Pacific. Blanca en Andres. Blanca kan nog een probleem worden voor Mexico.
Volgens mij net niet gehaald toch?
Wel weer records daar
Wel weer records daar
quote:Hurricane Blanca put on a furious display of rapid intensification this week, going from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Tuesday morning to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Wednesday morning--a remarkable 65 mph increase in winds in 24 hours, an intensification rate that is rarely seen. Blanca topped out at 140 mph winds on Wednesday afternoon, making it the fourth strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. It has been a remarkable run of early-season activity for the region, since just two days before that Hurricane Andres topped out as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, becoming the second strongest Northeast Pacific hurricane for so early in the year. Only six Northeast Pacific major hurricanes have occurred prior to June 5 since accurate satellite records began in 1971, and two of them were this year:
Systeem heeft de naam Ashobaa gekregen. Waar deze heen trekt is nog niet helemaal zeker. GFS brengt het naar Oman!
Flink noordelijk nogquote:
Systeem heeft de naam Ashobaa gekregen. Waar deze heen trekt is nog niet helemaal zeker. GFS brengt het naar Oman!
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De omstandigheden zijn er iig wel naar, het wordt gevoed door twee systemen die er tegenin draaien en wordt niet geremd door de zwakke straalstroom.
100.000 katjes
Fuck the EBU!
Fuck the EBU!
