Zeer gevaarlijke orkaan Phailin treft India

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Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin Headed Towards India

In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, Tropical Storm Phailin has formed off the west coast of Thailand, and is moving west-northwest towards India at 8 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin is a medium-sized storm that is increasing in organization and intensity. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to intensify into at least a Category 1 storm before landfall occurs near 12 UTC on Saturday, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin may be able to intensify into a Category 3 storm before landfall. The 12Z Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would peak as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds at landfall on Saturday. The northeast coast of India where Phailin is expected to hit is vulnerable to high storm surges and is densely populated, so Phailin has the potential to be a very dangerous storm.

India's tropical cyclone history
Only two Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000. The most recent was Cyclone Thane, which hit Southeast India on December 30, 2011, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Thane killed 48 people and did $250 million in damage. The most recent major tropical cyclone to hit India was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty storm, which had been at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Six other Indian tropical cyclones occurring before 1900 were deadlier; see wunderground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)

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Tienduizenden vluchten voor immense cycloon India

Inwoners van de oostkust van India zetten zich schrap voor een cycloon die zo groot is als de helft van het land en die zaterdagavond aan land komt. Tienduizenden mensen zijn de laaggelegen gebieden ontvlucht nadat de overheden hadden gewaarschuwd voor grote schade door de cycloon Phailin.

Phailin ligt nu nog 600 kilometer voor de kust in de Baai van Bengalen en zou volgens deskundigen net zo groot en krachtig zijn als de orkaan Katrina, die in 2005 aan de Amerikaanse Golfkust en in New Orleans een verwoesting aanrichtte. Het Indiase Meteorologische Departement omschreef Phailin als een 'zeer zware cyclonische storm' met windsnelheden van 210 tot 220 kilometer per uur en windstoten tot 305 kilometer per uur.

Schuilkelders
Zaterdagochtend moeten 100.000 mensen een veilig heenkomen hebben gevonden. Nu al zitten 5000 families in schuilkelders en schoolgebouwen, waar extra proviand is opgeslagen. De golven worden inmiddels opgezweept tot 3,5 meter hoogte, hoewel het de regering moeite kost de vissers ervan te overtuigen dat ze hun boten moeten verlaten.

India gaat ervan uit dat de cycloon grote schade aanricht aan de oogst, dorpen en oude gebouwen. Ook de elektriciteits- en watervoorzieningen zouden in gevaar komen door Phailin, evenals de spoorwegverbindingen.