Doden in Mexico door tropische stormen Ingrid en Manuel

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It crossed the Caribbean and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Karl on September 14. The cyclone made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a strong tropical storm, and then rapidly strengthened in the Bay of Campeche before it made landfall near Veracruz, Veracruz, on the central Mexican Gulf coast, as a major hurricane. This marked the first known time that a major hurricane existed in the Bay of Campeche.

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SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

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Due to its slow motion from October 29 to November 3, Hurricane Mitch dropped historic amounts of rainfall in Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, with unofficial reports of up to 75 inches (1,900 mm). Deaths due to catastrophic flooding made it the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane in history; nearly 11,000 people were killed with over 11,000 left missing by the end of 1998. Additionally, roughly 2.7 million were left homeless as a result of the hurricane. The flooding caused extreme damage, estimated at over $6 billion (1998 USD).

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Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.

Jeff Masters

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VERACRUZ, Mexico (AP) — Mexican authorities rushed to evacuate riverside communities in the Gulf coast state of Veracruz Friday as Tropical Storm Ingrid lashed the coast with heavy rains, threatening more damage in a state where landslides and flooding have killed dozens of people in recent weeks.

The state government said neighborhoods located near riverbanks in eight Veracruz townships would be evacuated amid warnings the Tecolutla river could overflow its banks. The evacuees were to be taken to shelters set up in schools and other government buildings.

Ingrid could become a hurricane shortly before hitting land near the Gulf coast port city of Tampico sometime late Sunday or early Monday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Mexico declared a hurricane watch for the Gulf coast from La Pesca, just south of the U.S. border, to a point near Tuxpan, south of Tampico.

Ingrid's maximum sustained winds late Friday were near 60 mph (95 kph), according to the Hurricane Center. It was nearly stationary and centered about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east of the port city of Veracruz, but forecasters said it was likely to advance north and curve into the coast near Tampico during Mexico's long Independence Day weekend.

At least three major rivers in the eastern state of Veracruz were flooding or close to overflowing their banks and hundreds of people were evacuating low-lying areas, officials said. A bridge collapsed near the northern city of Misantla, cutting off the area from the state capital. Thirteen people died when a landslide buried their homes in heavy rains spawned by Tropical Depression Fernand on Monday.

State officials imposed an orange alert, the highest possible, in parts of southern Veracruz. Ingrid was expected to dump 10 to 15 inches (25 to 40 centimeters) of rain over a large part of eastern Mexico with as much as 25 inches (65 centimeters) in some places.

On the other side of the country, Tropical Storm Manuel prompted Mexico's government to issue warnings for the Pacific coast from Acapulco to Punta San Telmo.

Forecasters at the hurricane center in Miami said Manuel was nearly stationary Friday night and its center was located about 190 miles (300 kilometers) south of Lazaro Cardenas. It had sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) and was moving west slowly. It was expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Saturday or early Sunday, over a relatively sparsely populated stretch of coast west of Lazaro Cardenas port.

Manuel is expected to produce 10 to 15 inches of rain over parts of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Tropical storm conditions should begin in the warning area by midday Saturday.

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely. Meanwhile far out over the Atlantic, Humberto weakened to a tropical storm and did not threaten land.

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A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE
RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

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Kans op grootschalige overstromingen in het oosten van Mexico met de komst van ‘hurricane Ingrid’.

Het oosten van Mexico, zijnde het gebied grenzend aan de Golfkust, krijgt maandag te maken met de 2de ‘hurricane’ van het seizoen: Ingrid. De zondagochtend lokale tijd 10 uur (17 uur bij ons) iets in kracht afnemende orkaan (oostelijk van de stad Tampico) is een in potentie gevaarlijk systeem. Dat heeft niet zozeer te maken met de hoge windsnelheden maar vooral de enorme hoeveelheden neerslag. Er kan in de kuststaten (vanaf Veracruz naar het noorden) tot circa 400 mm vallen en in de bergketen Sierra Madre Oriental moet zelfs rekening worden gehouden met meer dan 600 mm. Ingrid ‘profiteert’ trouwens ook van de tropische vochtvelden van de tropische storm Manuel die actief is langs de Mexicaanse westkust. In Acapulco viel in 63 uur tijd 351 mm en tussen zaterdagochtend en zondagochtend kreeg La Villita in de staat Michoacan 305 mm te verwerken.

Het is aannemelijk dat regens van Ingrid tot ernstige overstromingen zullen leiden. Dat komt omdat de bodem in onder meer de staat Veracruz volledig verzadigd is door recente zware regenval van onder meer een tropische depressie en de tropische storm Fernand. In de stad Manzanatitla werden afgelopen maandag 8 mensen gedood door aardverschuivingen.
De Amerikaanse meteoroloog Jeff Masters sluit niet uit dat de regens van Ingrid de ‘zondvloed van hurricane Alex’ naar de kroon steken. Alex overspoelde eind juni/begin juli 2010 het gebied ten noorden van Tampico met hoeveelheden tot meer dan 650 mm. In Estanzuela/Monterrey viel zelfs 890 mm (het landelijk jaargemiddelde in ons land bedraagt 847 mm!!); in de Amerikaanse staat Texas kreeg Langtry 365 mm te verstouwen. De overstromingen langs de Rio Grande/Rio Bravo waren destijds de ergste sinds 1960. In totaal vielen er 51 doden en de schade bedroeg 1.8 miljard dollar.

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

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Hurricane Manuel made landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa almost due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula this Thursday morning near 8 am EDT, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. It was Manuel's second landfall this week in storm-weary Mexico. Manuel hit the coast on Monday as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds northwest of Acapulco, bringing torrential rains of up to foot in the coastal mountains. The combined one-two punch of Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast this week have caused flooding blamed for at least 80 deaths. Another 58 people are missing and probably dead in a landslide that hit La Pintada, several hours north of Acapulco. The double blow by Manuel and Ingrid this week was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and up to a foot of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause additional flash floods and mudslides over the next few days. Mexican radar shows that Manuel is moving very slowly inland, and should weaken significantly as long as the eye stays ashore. Satellite images show that Manuel is a small storm, and its heavy rains are affecting a relatively limited area. With such a large death toll, it is possible that the name Manuel will be retired from the list of active Eastern Pacific hurricanes; only three other Pacific storms that hit Mexico have had their names retired.