Zeer zware cycloon voor Australië

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A low [10U] in the Northern Region near 11S 129E is slowly developing and is
expected to move into the Western Region during Friday or early Saturday. This
low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next
week there is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical
cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley. People in the Pilbara and
Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.
There are no other significant lows and none are expected to develop over the
next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate
Sunday High

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Potential Cyclones:

A weak low [10U] is located in the monsoon trough near 13S 122E at midday WST,
about 500km north of Broome. The low is forecast to develop and become a
tropical cyclone on Sunday. Further intensification is then expected and there
is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone
and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley early next week. People in the Pilbara
and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and
warnings.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday Low
Sunday High
Monday High

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A low [10U] is located in the monsoon trough near 15S 119E at 8:00 WST,
about 440km northwest of Broome. The low is forecast to develop and become a
tropical cyclone on Sunday. Further intensification is then expected and there
is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone
and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley early next week. Refer to latest
Tropical Cyclone Advice [IDW24100] for more details.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday High
Monday High
Tuesday High

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Cyclone threat to north coast of WA

RESIDENTS have been warned to prepare for dangerous weather as a cyclone intensifies off Western Australia's north coast.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is expected to bring gales late on Sunday night or early on Monday, as it tracks towards the coast, followed by very heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A blue alert for dangerous weather has been issued for coastal communities from Broome to Whim Creek, including areas around Port Hedland, Wallal and Broome.

At 2pm (WST) on Sunday, the category one cyclone was estimated to be 350km north of Port Hedland and 435km west of Broome, moving south at 8km/h, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

It will continue to intensify on Monday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is large and expected to move more slowly than usual, resulting in higher than normal rainfall, the bureau says.
Digital Pass $1 for first 28 Days

Widespread very heavy rainfall is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment and in the Fortescue.

Residents have been warned to review their family cyclone plan and organise an emergency kit with a portable battery-operated radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit.

The Port Hedland Port Authority said anchorage evacuation had begun and inbound shipping movements had been suspended.

Outbound movements will continue as scheduled overnight, but could be amended if flying is made difficult.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 2:36 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Broome to Wallal and Whim
Creek to Mardie and extending inland to Marble Bar.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
350 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
435 kilometres west of Broome and
moving south at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
to commence on the coast late on Sunday night or early on Monday.

During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk
that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or
Wednesday.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to move slower than usual
resulting in higher than usual rainfall. Widespread very heavy rainfall is
expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding
in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare
for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit,
torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 118.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

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Op zondag 24 februari 2013 11:24 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Categorie 1 lijkt het te worden

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72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

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People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

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Australia's most dangerous tropical cyclone of the season so far is Tropical Cyclone Rusty, which has intensified to Category 1 strength and is lumbering southeastwards towards the northwestern coast of Australia at 6 mph. Rusty is expected to intensify further into a powerful Category 3 storm, and is predicted to make landfall near the town of Port Hedland (population 15,000) on Tuesday near 18 UTC (1 pm EST in the U.S.) Rusty formed on Saturday evening when westerly winds blowing near the Equator combined with easterly winds blowing south of New Guinea to create an unusually large tropical storm with a huge, 100-mile diameter cloud-free center. Ordinarily, a storm this large takes a long time to wind up, but Rusty intensified quickly, taking advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and near-record warm ocean temperatures of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F). It's not often that a tropical cyclone gets 31 - 32°C waters to feed off of; these temperature are about 1.5°C (2.7°F) warmer than average for this time of year. The hot ocean temperatures are largely due to Australia's hottest month in its history--the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature during January 2013 was the highest ever recorded. For the waters off the northwest Australian coast (15°S - 20°S, 115°E - 120°E), only two years since ocean temperature records began in 1960 have seen February ocean temperatures this warm (1.57°C above average in 2005, and 1.62°C above average in 1983.) The warm waters also extend to great depth; the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in this region is over 90 kJ/cm**2, a value commonly associated with rapid intensification. With its slow movement, large circulation, and near-record warm waters to feed off, Rusty is going to dump some prodigious rains on the coast of northwestern Australia over the next few days. Radar out of Port Hedland shows very heavy rains already affecting the coast, and sustained wind as high as 38 mph have been observed there today.

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