Bulls, Bears & Bucks #72 Horrorwinter op komst!

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Op vrijdag 27 september 2013 17:00 schreef piepeloi55 het volgende:

Er is onlangs een studie geweest (door de FED chicago) welke bijdrage QE heeft gehad aan de economische groei, die was marginaal (tienden van een procent). Je kunt echter wel stellen dat zonder alle stimuleringen de groei er heel anders had uit gezien.

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Op vrijdag 11 oktober 2013 19:24 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Ten American Companies Cutting the Most Jobs

1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. 19k
2. J.C. Penney Company, Inc. 15k
3. International Business Machines Corp. 9.4k
4. Boeing Co. 5.8k
5. American Express Company 5.4k
6. Wells Fargo & Co. 5.2k
7. Cisco Systems, Inc. 4.5k
8. MetLife Inc. 3.2k
9. Blockbuster (Dish Network Corp.) 3k
10. United Technologies, Inc. 3k

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Op vrijdag 11 oktober 2013 19:28 schreef crashbangboom het volgende:

[..]

Dat zijn ongetwijfeld ook de bedrijven met de grootste sharebuybacks.... en de grootste holdings van onze <3> filantroop <3> Warren <3>

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Op vrijdag 11 oktober 2013 19:30 schreef Perrin het volgende:

[..]

Haha, filantroop

edit: Oh, wacht hij is er echt een.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Buffett#Philanthropy

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Op vrijdag 11 oktober 2013 19:24 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Ten American Companies Cutting the Most Jobs

1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. 19k
2. J.C. Penney Company, Inc. 15k
3. International Business Machines Corp. 9.4k
4. Boeing Co. 5.8k
5. American Express Company 5.4k
6. Wells Fargo & Co. 5.2k
7. Cisco Systems, Inc. 4.5k
8. MetLife Inc. 3.2k
9. Blockbuster (Dish Network Corp.) 3k
10. United Technologies, Inc. 3k

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FT: Credit default swaps run out of road

In 1994, bankers at JPMorgan Chase came up with the canny idea of selling off some of the risk of their loans by striking insurance-like deals with other banks and financial institutions. In return for paying some fees, JPMorgan was able to effectively unload much of its credit risk and save on capital costs.

From that humble beginning the “single-name” credit default swap (CDS) was born. By 2008, Wall Street had manufactured trillions of dollars worth of the swaps, using the derivatives to increase or reduce their exposure to loans – with sometimes disastrous results.

Single-name CDS are the simplest, and most common, of the default swap universe. They offer protection from default by companies, banks and governments. For some traders, they are also a means to speculate against the financial health of corporate and sovereign entities. The buyer of the protection makes periodic payments to the seller, and receives a pay-off in the event of default.

Now, just two decades since their creation, such swaps have come under pressure from regulators, as well as a broader evolution in the behaviour of banks and investors. The amount of such swaps outstanding has shrivelled to less than half of what it once was, fuelling speculation that the market for single-name CDS is on its deathbed.

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It's back with a vengeance: Private debt

As Washington is struggling with debt and all its political ramifications, American companies and consumers are embracing it, running up record amounts in 2013.

Whether it's corporate loans, all quality levels of bonds or simple consumer credit, the debt party is back on in the U.S., whether it's in the boardroom or the living room.
Amid the financial crisis of 2008, the U.S. went into what economists call a "debt deleveraging cycle"—akin to a credit hangover, where the party has ended and everyone there decides to quit drinking cold turkey.

Somebody has clearly turned the lights back on, though, and corporate and individual buying is soaring.

Consumer credit, for instance, surged past the $3 trillion mark in the second quarter of 2013 and continues on an upward trajectory, according to the most recent numbers from the Federal Reserve.

At $3.04 trillion, the total is up 22 percent over the past three years. Student loans are up a whopping 61 percent.

Total household debt, according to the Fed's flow of funds report, is at $13 trillion, nearly back to its pre-crisis level in 2007 and a shade below government debt of $15 trillion.

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FT: Boom-era credit deals raise fears of overheating

“We’re in the third year of the greatest leveraged finance markets of all time because of the efforts by the Fed, and all the central banks around the world, to keep rates at zero,” said Craig Packer, who helped build the first Neiman Pik-toggle and is now head of leveraged finance at Goldman Sachs.

The return of Pik-toggles and other lending practices is symptomatic of a wider trend in the capital markets. With interest rates hovering at record lows, highly indebted companies have been able to sell their debt at ultra-low prices, and on terms that they dictate, to investors who are increasingly starved for yield.

Already the amount of indebtedness in leveraged buyout deals is creeping up.

....

But the effervescent mood in credit markets could change quickly.

Regulators are closely scrutinising credit institutions’ lending, with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency having criticised 42 per cent of the leveraged lending portfolio in its last review.

Proposed rules that would force CLO managers to keep a portion of a securitised deal – known as risk retention – could eventually damp demand for leveraged loans. CLOs account for about 55 per cent of demand.

Perhaps the thing that could pour water on the leveraged loan boom the fastest is the prospect of the Fed’s historic low interest rates coming to a sudden end.

“We are at the beginning of a releveraging cycle,” Mr Toms says. “Ultimately, we all know how this story ends. The question is trying to figure out exactly when.”

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Mainstream economics is in denial: the world has changed

The Cambridge economist Victoria Bateman looked as if saturated fat wouldn't melt in her mouth, yet demolished her colleagues. They'd been stupidly cocky before the crash – remember the 2003 boast from Nobel prizewinner Robert Lucas that the "central problem of depression-prevention has been solved"? – and had learned no lessons since. Yet they remained the seers of choice for prime ministers and presidents. She ended: "If you want to hang anyone for the crisis, hang me – and my fellow economists."

What followed was angry agreement. On the night before the latest growth figures, no one in this 100-strong hall used the word "recovery" unless it was to be sarcastic. Instead, audience members – middle-aged, smartly dressed and doubtless sizably mortgaged – took it in turn to attack bankers, politicians and, yes, economists. They'd created the mess everyone else was paying for, yet they'd suffered no retribution.

In one of the world's elite institutions, the elites were taking a pasting – from accountants, entrepreneurs and academics. They knew what they were on about, too. Given his turn on the mic, one biologist said: "I'll believe economists have reformed when the men behind Black and Scholes [the theory that helps traders value financial derivatives] have been stripped of their Nobel prizes."

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One of the central facts of post-crash Britain is that the elites still hold power, but no longer command the credibility to wield it. You see that when Russell Brand talks on Newsnight about the corrupt lilliputian world of Westminster, and the various YouTube clips total more than 3m views. And I certainly saw it in Cambridge.

Like all the other plebs in Britain – whether on minimum wage, or a five-figure salary – the people in that lecture theatre had been told for decades to trust the politicians, policymakers and employers to provide the jobs, the houses and pensions, and the prospects for their kids. In the wake of the biggest economic rupture since the 1930s, they're evidently no longer so willing to extend that trust.

But at the same time, the elites – whether in Whitehall or the City – remain in charge. Looking at mainstream economists gives us as good an idea as any as to how reform has been warded off.

As Bateman points out, by rights these PhD-armed boosters of The Great Moderation should have been widely discredited after the crash. After all, the most significant thing to emerge from academic economics in the past five years has not been any piece of research, but the superb documentary Inside Job, in which film-maker Charles Ferguson showed how some of the best minds at American universities had been paid by Big Finance to produce research helping Big Finance.

Yet look around at most of the major economics degree courses and neoclassical economics – that theory that treats humans as walking calculators, all-knowing and always out for themselves, and markets as inevitably returning to stability – remains in charge. Why? In a word: denial. The high priests of economics refuse to recognise the world has changed.

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Median wage falls to lowest level since 1998

Last year the median wage hit its lowest level since 1998, revealing that at least half of American workers are being left behind as the economy slowly recovers from the Great Recession.

But at the top, wages soared — the latest indication in a long-running trend of increasing inequality, with income gains going to top earners while the majority of workers see stagnant or falling wages.

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Race to Bottom Resumes as Central Bankers Ease Anew: Currencies

The global currency wars are heating up again as central banks embark on a new round of easing to combat a slowdown in growth.

The European Central Bank cut its key rate last week in a decision some investors say was intended in part to curb the euro after it soared to the strongest since 2011. The same day, Czech policy makers said they were intervening in the currency market for the first time in 11 years to weaken the koruna. New Zealand said it may delay rate increases to temper its dollar, and Australia warned the Aussie is “uncomfortably high.”

“It’s a very real concern of these countries to keep their currencies weak,” Axel Merk, who oversees about $450 million of foreign exchange as the head of Palo Alto, California-based Merk Investments LLC, said in a Nov. 8 telephone interview. ECB President Mario Draghi, “persistently since earlier this year, has been trying to talk down the euro,” Merk said.

With the outlook for the global economy being downgraded by the International Monetary Fund and inflation slowing to levels that may hinder investment, countries and central banks are revisiting policies that tend to boost competitiveness through weaker currencies.

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Op zondag 17 november 2013 18:39 schreef JimmyJames het volgende:
Het bijbehorende artikel: http://seekingalpha.com/a(...)pions-are-not-part-1
(toevallig ook gelezen vanmorgen)

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Op zondag 17 november 2013 18:42 schreef crashbangboom het volgende:
met dank aan het masaal inkopen van aandelen met geleend geld