Tropische strom in de maak boven Middellandse Zee?

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Precies, dit systeem is "geboren"(cut-off) vanuit de Atlantische hoogtetrog.
Daarnaast voldoet dit systeem ook niet aan de definities van tropische storingen(depressies) of cyclonen. Deze ontstaan in de ITCZ (intertropische convergentiezone) zone. Ook de warme kern ontbreekt.

Ciao Johann

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Op zondag 6 november 2011 15:55 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Nou berg je weer en thee servies maar op!!!!!11!!

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Op zondag 6 november 2011 15:57 schreef meteo-online het volgende:
Gaat het kapot door de tropische storm

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Op zondag 6 november 2011 16:02 schreef Fredo55 het volgende:

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Heeft het beestje al een naam?

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Op maandag 7 november 2011 12:03 schreef aloa het volgende:

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Dat heeft de Telegraaf weer zonder na te denken overgenomen.
Nieuwste sensationele kop in de Telegraaf: http://www.telegraaf.nl/b(...)_kouder__.html?p=1,1

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Op maandag 7 november 2011 19:38 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Komen die daar vaak voor? Als ik dat satelietshotje bekijk dan lijkt het wel op een kleine orkaan

[ afbeelding ]

Ze krijgen dus nog veel meer water aan de Cote D Azur

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Op maandag 7 november 2011 19:44 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Misschien blazen ze Katla dan wakker

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****** Tropical storm 01M/99L ******

SUMMARY: 8th NOV. 2011, 0600 UTC
-----------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 5.8E
ABOUT 108 NM...200 KM SE OF MARSEILLE
ABOUT 126 NM...233 KM W OF AJACCIO, CORSICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...52 MPH...83 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ROUGHLY 5KM/H TO THE EAST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... ROUGHLY 1000 hPa

UPDATE 06UTC: The center of the cyclone again became better organized with the strongest convection now in the southern and eastern part (maybe enhanced by the jet streak, which passes by to the SE). Some slow movement to the east occurred but despite a further consolidating cyclone, latest reports do not indicate any strengthening (also assisted by ASCAT data). No further surface reports were available.

NOTE 1: Despite issuing new ESTOFEX updates, this part of the outlook will be updated when new informations become available. Please check this table for further updates during the upcoming 24 hours.

NOTE 2: ESTOFEX is not responsible for forecasting any tropical storm activity. This is just an additional information and therefore captured as a "side-note". For more informations, please contact the following address of the Satellite Analysis Branch (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/2011/bulletins/archive.html,[SAB]).

As of 18 UTC (7th Nov.), the Satellite Analysis Branch upgraded the depression over the W-Mediterranean to "Tropical system 01M", as convection persisted for an adequate time atop the center. Since then, deep convection weakened somewhat with warming cloud tops next to the center. Nevertheless, very good banding is now present in all quadrants with good outflow atop (especially to the NE, pointing to a 30 m/s 300 hPa jet). A Dvorak number-pressure relation was used for the pressure classification (also at 21Z at the 7th, a ship at position N 41°36' , E 6°06' reported a pressure of 1005.0 mb with 38kt winds from 160°). The final wind strength reflects the intensity of the latest SAB guidance.

There remains some time left for further intensification, before geopotential heights slowly increase during the end of the forecast period. We would not be surprised to see another flare-up of DMC along the center due to the convective cycle of those features (peaking during the morning hours). The N-outflow may weaken somewhat as the upper jet to the north weakens, but at the same time the southern outflow channel could take profit of a 300 hPa streak, which crosses Sicily during the forecast from SW to NE. SSTs remain at or above 20°C, whereas 500 hPa temperatures gradually warm up 1-2K until 06Z. Combining all those effects, some further organization/strengthening is forecast if this system can support more convective bursts along the center before overall conditions become somewhat less favorable during the night hours onwards.

The storm motion is handeled badly by the models...without surprise. 01M is captured in a very weak steering flow and most models now show a system, which meanders around between the Balearic Islands and Corsica/Sardinia. In any case, residents along the adjacent coasts should keep a close eye on the further development of this feature as bands of strong convection may bring heavy downpours next to gusty winds.

A level 1 was issued not for the system itself (as we do not forecast tropical cyclone activity), but for the showers/thunderstorms, which accompany that cyclone. The level 1 covers heavy rainfall and strong to isolated severe wind gusts.

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Mediterranean storm: tempest in a teapot
A hybrid storm currently lashing the French Riviera with gusty winds, rough seas and rain is rare, but not unheard of for the Mediterranean Sea.

This particular storm seems to have been born out of a slow-moving, upper-level storm pestering the area from Spain and France to Italy since the middle of last week.

The parent storm funneled torrential rain into Genoa, Italy, last week, causing approximately half a dozen deaths and considerable destruction from flash flooding.

The storm near the French Rivera is forecast to break down over the next couple of days. However, heavy rain can lead to flash flooding, mudslides and landslides in the region. Locally gusty winds can reach near 50 mph along the coast. Seas may remain dangerous for bathers into the end of the week.

According to World Weather Expert Jim Andrews, "Although more like a polar storm, rather than a tropical storm, these 'tempests in a tea pot' seem to crop up, on average once every year."

The overall surface area of the Mediterranean is very small when compared to the Atlantic. Although relatively similar in size to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, it is longer and skinnier, making it tougher for tropical storm formation.

"The surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea is much lower, on average, when compared to the Caribbean and the Gulf. It does approach minimal operating temperature for tropical storms during the late summer," Andrews said.

The surface of the Mediterranean Sea reaches about 80 degrees Fahrenheit during late August in some locations.

Interestingly, it seems the storms are more likely to form as Europe cools down in the fall and winter, when the water is warmest relative to the land. Hence, arguing against the suggestion of their tropical or even subtropical nature.

Perhaps Mediterranean storms of this caliber need a classification of their own.

One has to wonder how many storms of similar nature have foiled invasions on the shores of the Mediterranean over the centuries.