Cautious Traders To Bid Up Dollar With Swiss Franc Sidelined -Coming safe-harbor flows favor the dollar, which rallies vs yen on SNB move
-Swiss move likely validates Japanese officials' own intervention
-SNB expected to convert massive amount of euros into dollarsNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--With the Swiss National Bank acting Tuesday to undermine the Swiss franc's role as a refuge from financial turmoil,
the U.S. dollar may regain its traditional status as a global safe haven.If traders do return to the dollar as a haven, they might do so begrudgingly--after all, the beleaguered greenback continues to earn close to zero interest rates and is prone to the risk of more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. But with the SNB declaring its intent to prevent the euro from falling below CHF1.20 against the franc, market participants who are fearful of a breakdown in the euro zone might find the dollar is their only hope.
Indeed, the dollar rallied Tuesday on the SNB news. It rose 0.7% against the euro on the day and gained 1% against the yen.
"The SNB has taken the Swiss currency out of the mix, and you are really down to two safe havens now, the dollar and the yen," said Andrew Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. Busch believes that the yen will lose badly in that match.
The Swiss move validates Japanese officials' own efforts to artificially prop up the dollar against the yen, Busch said, noting that the dollar has only traded below the Y76.50 level once since the last round of intervention to weaken the Japanese currency in early August. The dollar's resilience suggests a desire among traders not to grind the dollar lower for fear of more Japanese intervention in what could be an escalating global currency war.
The underlying appeal of the dollar at such times is the same reason why it has attracted haven-seeking inflows in the past: It is the world's undisputed primary reserve currency, courtesy of a giant, high-turnover pool of U.S. government bonds. On that basis, Nomura Securities ranked it at the top of a list of safe-haven currencies published on Monday, after which it ranked, in succession, the yen, the euro, the U.K. pound and the Swiss franc.
And since the SNB's euro floor will force it to build an unprecedented level of euro foreign exchange reserves, there is likely to be a big flow into dollars as it transfers those euros into U.S. assets. This would amount to prudent diversification of reserves, said Steven Englander, head of G-10 strategy at Citigroup in New York.
In total, the SNB could need between $500 billion and $1 trillion in foreign currency purchases as it commits to keep the euro above CHF1.20, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ strategist Derek Halpenny estimated Tuesday.
There is some speculation that large amounts of that money will move into smaller European currencies, such as the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona. But such currencies are too small to be attractive as safe havens, where a large holder of the currency could essentially become the market, said Englander.
The one risk to increased dollar-positive flows is that posed by the prospect of the Federal Reserve enacting another dollar-diluting stimulus program to pump up the U.S. economy. If that comes to pass, the search for a single currency safe haven will become even more difficult.