Al-Qaeda en de revoluties in het Midden-Oosten

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Op maandag 21 maart 2011 09:50 schreef Muridae het volgende:
We hebben deze groepen teveel eer gegeven dan ze verdienen, de bevolking van het Midden-Oosten laat nu duidelijk zien hoe weinig invloed Al-Qaeda nog op dit moment heeft.

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Op maandag 21 maart 2011 10:27 schreef Zolcon het volgende:
Al-Qaeda is geen grote goed opgezette organisatie. Het is een groepje extreme fundamentalisten met geld. Ze beschikken niet over de middelen om ook maar enige rol te spelen in dit soort processen. Hun invloed wordt vaker overdreven.

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Bin Laden Is Winning
Osama Bin Ladens 1996 fatwa against America was the first domino in a chain of events that was meant to accomplish three goals.

1) Unify Muslims in a war against Western civilization

2) Topple the governments of the Muslim world, and replace them with fully Islamist regimes.

3) Build a regional and then global Muslim Caliphate

Phase 2 is now well under way. And America and European warplanes are bombing Libya to help clear the way for it. Just as we already did in Yugoslavia and Iraq. It is unknown whether Bin Laden is still alive or not, but his goals are being met. Muslims now see the defeat of Western civilization as an important and an achievable goal. Our democracy and nation building efforts have toppled much of the old order, and those best positioned to benefit from it are the Islamists.

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What did we do wrong? For one we have never stopped refighting World War 2. Treating Korea and Vietnam as if they were parts of Europe was bad enough, but throwing the Marshall Plan at the Muslim world is completely unforgivable. After WW2 we could at least rely on being able to roll back Germany, Italy and Japan to their pre-Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo states. But what in the world did we think we were rolling Iraq or Afghanistan back to? The stone age. The Abbasid Caliphate?

Had we set out to smash the armed forces and industrial bases of the Axis of Evil, we would have been done long ago with a fraction of the casualties. Not only would we have dealt terrorist supporting regimes a major setback, but we would have limited our exposure to their culture and denied them the time necessary to form a working insurgency. Instead we assumed that reforming and rebuilding Iraq would turn it into a model of democracy for the region. And unsurprisingly, the surviving members of the Axis of Evil, made sure to amp up the terrorism, turning the nation building project into an occupation and finally a long series of compromises leading to a withdrawal.

But the falling dominoes didnt end there. We took Saddam out of play, but left Iran in the game. And Iran used its new freedom of action to gain regional influence and power. Then in a final topper, a new administration championed democracy in the Muslim world, which isolated Western allied regimes, and allowed the Islamists in an alliance with Iran to topple even Cairo. And thats how we reached Phase 2.

This is what Bin Laden wanted back in 1996. He may never replace the Saudi royals, but if hes alive, then hes closer to it than ever. And its our work that got him there.

We applied Western standards to non-Western states without realizing that the outcomes would be completely different than what we expected. Countless analysts are still applying the 1848 model to Arab regimes right now. The realization has still not dawned on them that the Middle East is not Europe and that their values are not universal, so instead of experiencing events, they are romanticizing them by marrying them with their own historical myths.

By pushing us, Bin Laden set a chain of events in motion. No one could have predicted the exact trajectory of them, but in the general sense, he sought to move the Muslim world toward an armed Jihad against the West with the aim of overthrowing Middle East governments and building a caliphate over their bones. He could not have foreseen how much of his work we would do for him, though after we bombed Yugoslavia to create a KLA terrorist state, perhaps he did. It makes no difference.

Bin Ladens overall goal was to shift the conflict from the soft demographic and cultural invasions, to a violent campaign. A conflict that would bring the West into direct collision with Muslims and their governments. This conflict has accelerated Western resistance and subjugation, as it has accelerated Muslim violence and conquest. Today there is much wider Western and Muslim awareness of the Clash of Civilizations. Muslims are no longer content with a long term demographic and cultural victory they want short term conquest as well. And Westerners who have previously been voiceless in the face of the Islamization of Europe and America, have found their voice in response to 9/11 and 7/7.

Now as the conflict heads into the second phase, a new dimension will be added to it. The rise of a Caliphate will swamp any nonsense about a tiny minority of extremists. Westerners and Muslims both will be forced to confront the reality of Islam. And forced to make a choice.

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Op maandag 21 maart 2011 10:27 schreef Zolcon het volgende:
Al-Qaeda is geen grote goed opgezette organisatie. Het is een groepje extreme fundamentalisten met geld. Ze beschikken niet over de middelen om ook maar enige rol te spelen in dit soort processen. Hun invloed wordt vaker overdreven.

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:08 schreef Ronaldsen het volgende:

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Er is nauwelijks sprake van een organisatie, al Qaeda is voornamelijk een Amerikaans verzinsel.

Volgens mij had ik dit al eerder gepost, maar is m'n reply verwijderd?

Als je op YouTube zoekt op BBC al Qaeda vind je wel een mooie documentaire hierover

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:13 schreef Hans_van_Baalen het volgende:

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Mensen die bestaan kan je niet verzinnen.

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:15 schreef Ronaldsen het volgende:

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Een verzamelnaam voor een groepje terroristen kun je wel degelijk verzinnen, al Qaeda bestaat niet als gestructureerde organisatie.

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:15 schreef Ronaldsen het volgende:

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Een verzamelnaam voor een groepje terroristen kun je wel degelijk verzinnen, al Qaeda bestaat niet als gestructureerde organisatie.

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:24 schreef Hans_van_Baalen het volgende:

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Kan best zijn, maar ze hebben een grote aanhang, wijdverspreid netwerk en draagvlak in bepaalde gebieden in het MO. Dat is allemaal niet verzonnen door de VS.

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Op dinsdag 22 maart 2011 22:32 schreef Ronaldsen het volgende:

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Maar ja heb je er concrete feiten of cijfers van? Het blijft toch altijd een mystiek vaag clubje dat zogenaamd gefinancieerd wordt door bin laden.

Het enige punt waarin ik het me je eens ben, is het vrij grote draagvlak, met name in bepaalde gebieden in Afghanistan, Pakistan en het Arabische schiereiland.