Hurricane Season 2010 - Things are about to change...

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WEATHER Bureau forecasters predict Cyclone Ului will turn south today, tracking parallel with the Queensland coast.
But the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has the cyclone easing and veering towards the coast in an area between Fraser Island and Airlie Beach on Friday.

Ului was situated south of the Solomon Islands yesterday, 1400km northeast of Mackay and moving west-southwest at 7km/h. That is about half its speed of the previous day.

Forecaster Geoff Doueal said it was common for models to disagree.

"There's not much (weather conditions) steering this at the moment, so it's a wait and see," he said.

Ului drifted slowly west yesterday, but its longer-term track remained uncertain.

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2010 Atlantic hurricane season could rank in the top ten

The upcoming hurricane season could be a top ten active year, a stark contrast from the relatively calm 2009 season.

AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts a total of 16-18 storms this season. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season.

The season should start early with one or two threats by early July, and stay late with additional threats extending well into October.


His forecast team expects at least six storms to impact the United States coastline--slightly more than one out of every three. In a normal year, one out of every five named storms (20 percent) in the Atlantic basin impacts the United States. In the 2005 season, 36 percent of the storms affected the United States, while 50 percent impacted the U.S. in 1998 and 2008.

"From the standpoint of number of storm threats from the tropics to the U.S. coastline, we will at least rival 2008, and in the extreme case, this season could end up in a category only exceeded by 2005," Bastardi said.

Bastardi observes a rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico and the collapsing El Nino pattern, which were both characteristics of the 1998 and 2005 seasons.

Named storms moving through the Gulf of Mexico can cause major disruption to both oil and gas production. In 2008, shutdown of production caused a decline in production of 62 million barrels of oil and 408 billion cubic feet of gas. In the record-setting season of 2005, nearly three months of production time was lost.

According to Bastardi, the Atlantic basin looks "textbook" for a major season, with many long track storms that make their way from off the coast of Africa into the western Atlantic and Caribbean heading toward the U.S. coastline.


He adds that in the heart of the season, there will be a "congregation of tracks," or a concentrated area where many of the storm tracks will pass through.

"I believe there will be a bunching of tracks in the area around the Antilles and into the Bahamas," he said.

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

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Tropical cyclone could hit India and Bangladesh
Meteorologists are warning a tropical cyclone could hit the east coast of India and Bangladesh putting thousands of homes and scores of lives at risk.

Officials have issued a cyclone alert at ports in the eastern state of Orissa and begun preparations for mass evacuations amid fears of flooding.

Authorities in Bangladesh have also warned fishing boats to stay close to shore and not to venture into deep water.

Early monsoon rains increase the prospect of better rice, corn and soybean crops but cyclones are a regular hazard through the summer months.

India is battered regularly during the stormy season in the Bay of Bengal between April and November.

Last year, 169 people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Aila. Millions more living in India and Bangladesh had their lives disrupted.

And last month, a nor'wester – large storm systems that develop in the Bay of Bengal during the summer – struck the states of Bihar and West Bengal, killing 137 people and leaving thousands of people homeless.

The latest cyclone, named Laila, is gusting at up to 40mph but is still some 400 miles east of Chennai.

Forecasts suggest it could reach speeds of 120mph and – if it continues on course – hit land on Thursday in Andhra Pradesh, home to steel plants and oil refineries and ports.

"The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move initially in a north-westerly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast," said a statement issued by the The India Meteorological Department.

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India evacuates 40,000 as cyclone approaches southern state


NEW DELHI, May 20 (Xinhua) -- Indian authorities have evacuated over 40,000 people from coastal areas of southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh in the anticipation of cyclone Laila which is expected to land in the state, said officials Thursday.

However, cyclonic storm Laila is showing signs of weakening before hitting the seashore, said Indian meteorological officials.

Heavy rains with gales has killed 10 people and crippled life in the coastal region of the state, as the cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh by Thursday afternoon.

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Cyclone Laila moves towards Orissa, rains in Andhra

Cyclone Laila weakened ahead of landfall about 30 km from Bapatla in Guntur district in Andhra Pradesh on Thursday but still left 16 people dead, flooded thousands of homes, snapped power supply in many areas and threw rail and road traffic out of gear in the coastal region of the state.

Though Laila's intensity reduced considerably, the winds blowing at a speed of 90-95 kmph continue to leave behind a trail of destruction, though not of the level that was feared before it made the landfall.

It rained all night in most parts of Bapatla in Guntur and even now it is raining, accompanied by strong winds.

While the depression is moving towards Orissa now, the Meteorological department has said that vigil should continue in coastal Andhra Pradesh today as well.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall activity is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and Orissa during next 24 hours. (After striking Andhra, Cyclone Laila heads towards Orissa)


The sea condition will be very rough along and off Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen have been are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hours.

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Tropical Cyclone Laila hovered over the eastern coastline of India and the Bay of Bengal, and skirted Sri Lanka on May 19, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. Spanning hundreds of kilometers, the storm extends a spiral arm toward the northeast, covering much of India’s coast. In the south, the storm spans most of southern India.
On May 19, 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Laila had maximum sustained winds of 65 knots (120 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 80 knots (150 kilometers per hour). Roughly 80 nautical miles (150 kilometers) northeast of the coastal city of Chennai (Madras), the storm had moved toward the north-northwest over the previous several hours.
As Laila traveled along the Indian coastline, both the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory reported severe flooding, including some casualties, in India and Sri Lanka. Some of the flooding, however, occurred before Laila developed into a named storm, and was associated with other weather fronts.

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Doden na overstromingen Sri Lanka
Bij overstromingen en aardverschuivingen als gevolg van zware regenval zijn in Sri Lanka zeker twintig mensen om het leven gekomen. Dat heeft de Sri Lankaanse regering vrijdag gezegd. De meeste doden vielen in het westelijke district Gampaha.

Volgens de regering zijn veel huizen ondergelopen en zijn wegen weggespoeld. De marine probeert mensen die vast zitten te redden en helpt bij de verspreiding van hulpgoederen.

Trouw

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Dodental cycloon India gestegen
(Novum/AP) - Het dodental als gevolg van een krachtige cycloon die het zuidoosten van India heeft getroffen is gestegen naar 23. Donderdagnacht kwamen vier mensen om het leven bij een aardverschuiving in de stad Vijawyada.

Slagregens geselden woensdag het kustgebied van de deelstaat Andhra Pradesh en winden van honderd kilometer per uur rukten bomen en elektriciteitsmasten uit de grond. De storm zorgde voor aardverschuivingen in het kuststadje Bapatla. Golven van meer dan drie meter hoog troffen de Indiase kust.

Op voorhand werden meer dan vijftigduizend mensen geëvacueerd uit vrees voor mogelijk de ergste storm in veertien jaar. Toch verloren sinds woensdag 23 mensen het leven. Zeker 55 vissers worden vermist. Zes districten hadden te kampen met stroomuitval en honderden dorpen werden tien uur lang in duisternis gehuld.

In het noorden van India kwamen tien mensen om het leven bij een krachtig onweer. Zes mensen overleden toen hun huis vlakbij het dorp Allahabad in de deelstaat Uttar Pradesh instortte.

Trouw

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An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.

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Op zaterdag 22 mei 2010 13:57 schreef Vogue het volgende:
Da's extreem vroeg Op de site van National Hurricane Center staat nog niets overigens.