WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
Chinese Banks: "An Accident Waiting to Happen"
Readers may recall that it wasn't all that long ago that China's banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent.
Even though the Western press has gotten excited about Chinese loan growth, seeing it as a sign of imminent recovery, appearances are deceiving. First, the government set targets, so loans had to be made, whether they made sense or not. Michael Pettis has reported some transactions were shams to meet the mandated goals. About 1/3 of the proceeds were estimated to go to the stock market, hardly a productive use. And the banking aurhorities themselves were recently reported to be trying to curtail loan growth, a confusing signal.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is even more dour, thanks to the reading a less than cheery reports from Fitch:
China's banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People's Republic cannot absorb the $1,000bn (£600bn) blitz of new lending issued since December.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
En de volgende
----------------------------
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Beijing's property prices are climbing at an unsustainable rate, with residential property in the city center leaping 6.5% in the past week alone, according to a report Friday in the state-run China Daily newspaper.
The report, which cited data from property broker Homelink, said some neighborhoods have seen demand for apartments at four times the number of units available.
"We used to talk about monthly price growth, but recently, it's more about daily change," the report quoted a Homelink broker as saying.
Developers such as Hong Kong-listed Soho China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:410 (HK:410 5.12, +0.21, +4.28%) are also worried about the run-up in prices.
"The bidders have gone irrational. A bubble in Beijing's property market is definitely there," the report quoted Soho founder and Chief Executive Pan Shiyi as saying.
The report said other large cities across China were seeing a similar phenomenon, with industry leaders now worried that the market is priming for a big drop at some point in the future.
"One thing we are concerned about is whether there is a new bubble being shaped. While people have a strong perception of excessive liquidity and further price growth, the possibility of a bubble is pretty big," it quoted Gu Yunchang, secretary-general of the China Real Estate Association, as saying
Money is leaking instead into Shanghai's stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing very little to help lift the world economy out of slump.
Chinese new bank loans worth about an estimated 1.16 trillion yuan ($170 billion) were invested in the stock market in the first five months of this year
Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous waters, but its latest report is even grimmer than bears had suspected....
"Future losses on stimulus could turn out to be larger than expected, and it is unclear what share the central and/or local governments ultimately will be willing or able to bear."
Note the phrase "able to bear". Fitch's "macro-prudential risk" indicator for China threatens to jump from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland, et al). This is a surprise to me but Michael Pettis from Beijing University says China's public debt may be as high as 50pc-70pc of GDP when "correctly counted".
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".
Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate...Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye....
China's Banking Regulatory Commission fired a warning shot last week. "The top priority at the moment is to stop explosive lending. Banks should carefully monitor the process of credit approval and allocation, and make sure that loans flow into the real economy," it said....
World trade may be stabilizing at last after contracting at faster rate than during the early Great Depression. But it will not rebound fast in a world where the US savings rate has risen to a 15-year high of 6.9pc. A trade policy based on the assumption that debtors in the Anglosphere and Europe's Club Med can ruin themselves for ever is absurd.
Andy Xie, a Sino-bear and commentator for Caijing, said Western analysts are in for a rude shock if they think that China's surging demand for raw materials implies genuine recovery.
Commodity speculators have been using cheap credit to play the arbitrage spread between futures and spot on the oil markets. They have even found ways to trade lumber to iron ore by sheer scale of leverage. "They've made everything open to speculation," he said.
Mr Xie thinks the spring recovery is an inventory spike, to be followed a double-dip downturn into next year as stimulus wears off.
Reformers know what must be done to boost consumption. China needs a welfare revolution. But creating a social security net takes time, and right now Beijing is facing a social crisis as 20m jobless workers retreat to the rural hinterland.
So the regime is resorting to hazardous methods to keep excess factories humming: issuing a "Buy China" decree: using a plethora of export subsidies; holding down the price of coke, bauxite, zinc and other resources to lower production costs (prompting a complaint from America and Europe); and suppressing the yuan, again.
Protectionism is a risky game for a country that lives off global trade and runs a surplus near 10pc of GDP. Mr Pettis said he fears China is nearing its "Smoot-Hawley moment", repeating the US tariff blunder of 1930 that brought the world crashing down on Washington's head.
Two facts stand out about China's green shoots. While the Shanghai composite index is up 70pc since November, Chinese imports are down 25pc from a year ago. China is still draining real stimulus from the global economy.
If the world's biggest surplus state ($400bn) is too structurally deformed to help offset the demand shock as Western debtors retrench, we are trapped in a long deflation slump.
=========================================
Zijn eigenlijk 3 blog postings in elkaar verweven (connect the dots).
En de next green spot zou uit China moeten komen...... don't think so.
Toen de export in elkaar klapte was al duidelijk dat de geweldige groeicijfers van China marked to myth waren.
De huizenmarktgetallen en de aandelen grafieken zijn de planeet *Zork*.
Qua GDP doen ze het nog aardig.... maar niet erg lang onder deze condities.
Dit zou wel eens the 'next shoe to drop' kunnen worden.
Readers may recall that it wasn't all that long ago that China's banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent.
Even though the Western press has gotten excited about Chinese loan growth, seeing it as a sign of imminent recovery, appearances are deceiving. First, the government set targets, so loans had to be made, whether they made sense or not. Michael Pettis has reported some transactions were shams to meet the mandated goals. About 1/3 of the proceeds were estimated to go to the stock market, hardly a productive use. And the banking aurhorities themselves were recently reported to be trying to curtail loan growth, a confusing signal.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is even more dour, thanks to the reading a less than cheery reports from Fitch:
China's banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People's Republic cannot absorb the $1,000bn (£600bn) blitz of new lending issued since December.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
En de volgende
----------------------------
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Beijing's property prices are climbing at an unsustainable rate, with residential property in the city center leaping 6.5% in the past week alone, according to a report Friday in the state-run China Daily newspaper.
The report, which cited data from property broker Homelink, said some neighborhoods have seen demand for apartments at four times the number of units available.
"We used to talk about monthly price growth, but recently, it's more about daily change," the report quoted a Homelink broker as saying.
Developers such as Hong Kong-listed Soho China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:410 (HK:410 5.12, +0.21, +4.28%) are also worried about the run-up in prices.
"The bidders have gone irrational. A bubble in Beijing's property market is definitely there," the report quoted Soho founder and Chief Executive Pan Shiyi as saying.
The report said other large cities across China were seeing a similar phenomenon, with industry leaders now worried that the market is priming for a big drop at some point in the future.
"One thing we are concerned about is whether there is a new bubble being shaped. While people have a strong perception of excessive liquidity and further price growth, the possibility of a bubble is pretty big," it quoted Gu Yunchang, secretary-general of the China Real Estate Association, as saying
Money is leaking instead into Shanghai's stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing very little to help lift the world economy out of slump.
Chinese new bank loans worth about an estimated 1.16 trillion yuan ($170 billion) were invested in the stock market in the first five months of this year
Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous waters, but its latest report is even grimmer than bears had suspected....
"Future losses on stimulus could turn out to be larger than expected, and it is unclear what share the central and/or local governments ultimately will be willing or able to bear."
Note the phrase "able to bear". Fitch's "macro-prudential risk" indicator for China threatens to jump from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland, et al). This is a surprise to me but Michael Pettis from Beijing University says China's public debt may be as high as 50pc-70pc of GDP when "correctly counted".
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".
Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate...Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye....
China's Banking Regulatory Commission fired a warning shot last week. "The top priority at the moment is to stop explosive lending. Banks should carefully monitor the process of credit approval and allocation, and make sure that loans flow into the real economy," it said....
World trade may be stabilizing at last after contracting at faster rate than during the early Great Depression. But it will not rebound fast in a world where the US savings rate has risen to a 15-year high of 6.9pc. A trade policy based on the assumption that debtors in the Anglosphere and Europe's Club Med can ruin themselves for ever is absurd.
Andy Xie, a Sino-bear and commentator for Caijing, said Western analysts are in for a rude shock if they think that China's surging demand for raw materials implies genuine recovery.
Commodity speculators have been using cheap credit to play the arbitrage spread between futures and spot on the oil markets. They have even found ways to trade lumber to iron ore by sheer scale of leverage. "They've made everything open to speculation," he said.
Mr Xie thinks the spring recovery is an inventory spike, to be followed a double-dip downturn into next year as stimulus wears off.
Reformers know what must be done to boost consumption. China needs a welfare revolution. But creating a social security net takes time, and right now Beijing is facing a social crisis as 20m jobless workers retreat to the rural hinterland.
So the regime is resorting to hazardous methods to keep excess factories humming: issuing a "Buy China" decree: using a plethora of export subsidies; holding down the price of coke, bauxite, zinc and other resources to lower production costs (prompting a complaint from America and Europe); and suppressing the yuan, again.
Protectionism is a risky game for a country that lives off global trade and runs a surplus near 10pc of GDP. Mr Pettis said he fears China is nearing its "Smoot-Hawley moment", repeating the US tariff blunder of 1930 that brought the world crashing down on Washington's head.
Two facts stand out about China's green shoots. While the Shanghai composite index is up 70pc since November, Chinese imports are down 25pc from a year ago. China is still draining real stimulus from the global economy.
If the world's biggest surplus state ($400bn) is too structurally deformed to help offset the demand shock as Western debtors retrench, we are trapped in a long deflation slump.
=========================================
Zijn eigenlijk 3 blog postings in elkaar verweven (connect the dots).
En de next green spot zou uit China moeten komen...... don't think so.
Toen de export in elkaar klapte was al duidelijk dat de geweldige groeicijfers van China marked to myth waren.
De huizenmarktgetallen en de aandelen grafieken zijn de planeet *Zork*.
Qua GDP doen ze het nog aardig.... maar niet erg lang onder deze condities.
Dit zou wel eens the 'next shoe to drop' kunnen worden.
Heb altijd gewaarschuwd voor China...bij deze nogmaals!quote:Op zaterdag 4 juli 2009 07:13 schreef Drugshond het volgende:
Chinese Banks: "An Accident Waiting to Happen"
Readers may recall that it wasn't all that long ago that China's banks were sitting on big losses and the analysts debated how bad the mess was. In 2003, for instance, the damage was pegged at $500 billion, a stunning figure given the size of the economy, and meant the banking system was insolvent.
Even though the Western press has gotten excited about Chinese loan growth, seeing it as a sign of imminent recovery, appearances are deceiving. First, the government set targets, so loans had to be made, whether they made sense or not. Michael Pettis has reported some transactions were shams to meet the mandated goals. About 1/3 of the proceeds were estimated to go to the stock market, hardly a productive use. And the banking aurhorities themselves were recently reported to be trying to curtail loan growth, a confusing signal.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is even more dour, thanks to the reading a less than cheery reports from Fitch:
China's banks are veering out of control. The half-reformed economy of the People's Republic cannot absorb the $1,000bn (£600bn) blitz of new lending issued since December.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
En de volgende
----------------------------
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Beijing's property prices are climbing at an unsustainable rate, with residential property in the city center leaping 6.5% in the past week alone, according to a report Friday in the state-run China Daily newspaper.
The report, which cited data from property broker Homelink, said some neighborhoods have seen demand for apartments at four times the number of units available.
"We used to talk about monthly price growth, but recently, it's more about daily change," the report quoted a Homelink broker as saying.
Developers such as Hong Kong-listed Soho China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:410 (HK:410 5.12, +0.21, +4.28%) are also worried about the run-up in prices.
"The bidders have gone irrational. A bubble in Beijing's property market is definitely there," the report quoted Soho founder and Chief Executive Pan Shiyi as saying.
The report said other large cities across China were seeing a similar phenomenon, with industry leaders now worried that the market is priming for a big drop at some point in the future.
"One thing we are concerned about is whether there is a new bubble being shaped. While people have a strong perception of excessive liquidity and further price growth, the possibility of a bubble is pretty big," it quoted Gu Yunchang, secretary-general of the China Real Estate Association, as saying
Money is leaking instead into Shanghai's stock casino, or being used to keep bankrupt builders on life support. It is doing very little to help lift the world economy out of slump.
[ afbeelding ]
Chinese new bank loans worth about an estimated 1.16 trillion yuan ($170 billion) were invested in the stock market in the first five months of this year
Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous waters, but its latest report is even grimmer than bears had suspected....
"Future losses on stimulus could turn out to be larger than expected, and it is unclear what share the central and/or local governments ultimately will be willing or able to bear."
Note the phrase "able to bear". Fitch's "macro-prudential risk" indicator for China threatens to jump from category 1 (safe) to category 3 (Iceland, et al). This is a surprise to me but Michael Pettis from Beijing University says China's public debt may be as high as 50pc-70pc of GDP when "correctly counted".
The regime is so hellbent on meeting its growth target of 8pc that it has given banks an implicit guarantee for what Fitch calls a "massive lending spree".
Bank exposure to corporate debt has reached $4,200bn. It is rising at a 30pc rate, even as profits contract at a 35pc rate...Roll-over risk is rocketing. China's monetary stimulus since November is arguably more extreme than the post-Lehman printing of the US Federal Reserve, though less obvious to the untrained eye....
China's Banking Regulatory Commission fired a warning shot last week. "The top priority at the moment is to stop explosive lending. Banks should carefully monitor the process of credit approval and allocation, and make sure that loans flow into the real economy," it said....
World trade may be stabilizing at last after contracting at faster rate than during the early Great Depression. But it will not rebound fast in a world where the US savings rate has risen to a 15-year high of 6.9pc. A trade policy based on the assumption that debtors in the Anglosphere and Europe's Club Med can ruin themselves for ever is absurd.
Andy Xie, a Sino-bear and commentator for Caijing, said Western analysts are in for a rude shock if they think that China's surging demand for raw materials implies genuine recovery.
Commodity speculators have been using cheap credit to play the arbitrage spread between futures and spot on the oil markets. They have even found ways to trade lumber to iron ore by sheer scale of leverage. "They've made everything open to speculation," he said.
Mr Xie thinks the spring recovery is an inventory spike, to be followed a double-dip downturn into next year as stimulus wears off.
Reformers know what must be done to boost consumption. China needs a welfare revolution. But creating a social security net takes time, and right now Beijing is facing a social crisis as 20m jobless workers retreat to the rural hinterland.
So the regime is resorting to hazardous methods to keep excess factories humming: issuing a "Buy China" decree: using a plethora of export subsidies; holding down the price of coke, bauxite, zinc and other resources to lower production costs (prompting a complaint from America and Europe); and suppressing the yuan, again.
Protectionism is a risky game for a country that lives off global trade and runs a surplus near 10pc of GDP. Mr Pettis said he fears China is nearing its "Smoot-Hawley moment", repeating the US tariff blunder of 1930 that brought the world crashing down on Washington's head.
Two facts stand out about China's green shoots. While the Shanghai composite index is up 70pc since November, Chinese imports are down 25pc from a year ago. China is still draining real stimulus from the global economy.
If the world's biggest surplus state ($400bn) is too structurally deformed to help offset the demand shock as Western debtors retrench, we are trapped in a long deflation slump.
=========================================
Zijn eigenlijk 3 blog postings in elkaar verweven (connect the dots).
En de next green spot zou uit China moeten komen...... don't think so.
Toen de export in elkaar klapte was al duidelijk dat de geweldige groeicijfers van China marked to myth waren.
De huizenmarktgetallen en de aandelen grafieken zijn de planeet *Zork*.
Qua GDP doen ze het nog aardig.... maar niet erg lang onder deze condities.
[ afbeelding ]
Dit zou wel eens the 'next shoe to drop' kunnen worden.
Recovery
Investors should buy emerging-market equities rather than European stocks to benefit from China’s stimulus measures and a rally in commodities, Fortis Investments strategists Joost van Leenders said yesterday, adding to his already “overweight” position in developing economies. Fortis manages about $240 billion.
---------------------------------
rally in what..... zowel voor - tijdens - en na de olympische spelen was duidelijk dat Beijing not the place to be was.
Investors should buy emerging-market equities rather than European stocks to benefit from China’s stimulus measures and a rally in commodities, Fortis Investments strategists Joost van Leenders said yesterday, adding to his already “overweight” position in developing economies. Fortis manages about $240 billion.
---------------------------------
rally in what..... zowel voor - tijdens - en na de olympische spelen was duidelijk dat Beijing not the place to be was.
Soms moet ik het wel nageven.... bij positieve berichten zoek de negatieve op... and versa. Zolang er fast cash fast kings rondlopen zullen we voorlopig nog niet verlost zijn van dit topic.
Dubai (and who is holding thje bag scenario). It's there.
Dubai (and who is holding thje bag scenario). It's there.
Hmm dat is wel nieuw voor mij, ik wist van de massale werkeloosheid en hoe penibel de sociale situatie is maar dat ze zoveel leenden niet
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Als je het laatste plaatje van de OP pakt hoeveel debt (structureel tekort) zou het kosten om op 80 % GDP te geraken.
Ik schat zo'n 1,5 miljard yuan. En dat lijkt me wel erg weinig. China is vergelijkbaar met een economie van Duitsland met wellicht Frankrijk erbij.
Iets zegt me dat die cijfers niet volledig zijn.
Ik schat zo'n 1,5 miljard yuan. En dat lijkt me wel erg weinig. China is vergelijkbaar met een economie van Duitsland met wellicht Frankrijk erbij.
Iets zegt me dat die cijfers niet volledig zijn.
Dit verhaal heeft een beetje dezelfde strekking als een eerder topic:
De nieuwe China en commodities bubble
China is een paar enorme bubbles aan het opblazen en de Chinese machthebbers zullen nog wel wat extra olie op het vuur gooien na het zien van de demonstraties in Iran (hun grootste angst is sociale onrust en het verliezen van hun macht).
Het verbaast me elke keer weer als ik de grootste westerse kapitalisten enthousiaste verhalen zie ophangen over de kansen in China. Waar komt toch dat blinde vertrouwen in een planeconomie opeens vandaan?
En zoals de TT al zegt: je kunt erop wachten dat dit gaat eindigen in een catastrofe voor de Chinese banken die momenteel gedwongen door de staat hun eigen subprime crisis aan het creeren zijn. Iemand trek in Chinese aandelen?
De nieuwe China en commodities bubble
China is een paar enorme bubbles aan het opblazen en de Chinese machthebbers zullen nog wel wat extra olie op het vuur gooien na het zien van de demonstraties in Iran (hun grootste angst is sociale onrust en het verliezen van hun macht).
Het verbaast me elke keer weer als ik de grootste westerse kapitalisten enthousiaste verhalen zie ophangen over de kansen in China. Waar komt toch dat blinde vertrouwen in een planeconomie opeens vandaan?
En zoals de TT al zegt: je kunt erop wachten dat dit gaat eindigen in een catastrofe voor de Chinese banken die momenteel gedwongen door de staat hun eigen subprime crisis aan het creeren zijn. Iemand trek in Chinese aandelen?
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
Welnee, gewoon hier verder. Die andere ging toch offtopic.quote:
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
Omdat China het voorbeeld is voor het nieuwe economische systeem. We gaan richting wereldwijd socialisme met een groen sausje.quote:Op zondag 5 juli 2009 20:00 schreef SeLang het volgende:
Dit verhaal heeft een beetje dezelfde strekking als een eerder topic:
De nieuwe China en commodities bubble
China is een paar enorme bubbles aan het opblazen en de Chinese machthebbers zullen nog wel wat extra olie op het vuur gooien na het zien van de demonstraties in Iran (hun grootste angst is sociale onrust en het verliezen van hun macht).
Het verbaast me elke keer weer als ik de grootste westerse kapitalisten enthousiaste verhalen zie ophangen over de kansen in China. Waar komt toch dat blinde vertrouwen in een planeconomie opeens vandaan?
En zoals de TT al zegt: je kunt erop wachten dat dit gaat eindigen in een catastrofe voor de Chinese banken die momenteel gedwongen door de staat hun eigen subprime crisis aan het creeren zijn. Iemand trek in Chinese aandelen?
Oeps zie FB.quote:Op zondag 5 juli 2009 20:09 schreef SeLang het volgende:
[..]
Welnee, gewoon hier verder. Die andere ging toch offtopic.
Oh, en btw: de Chinese aandelenindices zijn zeer zwaar overwogen in financials.
De FTSE/ Xinhua China 25 index (veel gebruikt in China tracker ETF's) bestaat op dit moment voor 51% uit financials
T'is maar even dat je weet waar je in belegt als je achter de China hype aanloopt....
De FTSE/ Xinhua China 25 index (veel gebruikt in China tracker ETF's) bestaat op dit moment voor 51% uit financials
T'is maar even dat je weet waar je in belegt als je achter de China hype aanloopt....
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
Mijn reisverslagen
Mijn reisverslagen
Interessant topic. Zeker die vergelijking van Chinees protectionism met die smoot-Hawley act.
Volgen maar.
Volgen maar.
'La operación fue, perfecta' Betancourt
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