Wordt Ierland de volgende dominosteen?

Markets wary of Irish debt as fresh rescue looms

Ireland's bank rescue has begun to unravel despite a blanket debt guarantee for the country's top lenders, prompting concerns that Europe's credit crisis may be entering a second and more menacing phase.

The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, told the Irish parliament yesterday that he was exploring "all options" to shore up the banks after the collapse of their share prices over recent days.

While talk of a fresh bail-out has helped revive the battered stocks of Anglo Irish, Bank of Ireland and other lenders, it appears merely to have shifted the risk to the Irish state itself.

Michael Klawitter, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the cost of insuring Irish sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) has surged to 133 basis points. "The markets have begun to see a risk to the solvency of the Irish government. They are questioning whether it has the financial muscle to back up the guarantees," he said.

This is a disturbing pattern across Europe as the global credit crisis drags on, with extreme cases in Iceland, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary and Latvia. There are fears that investors could start to shun sovereign debt in Western states where banks have outgrown the underlying economy.

Ireland is vulnerable because financial services make up 9.8pc of GDP, including its 'Canary Dwarf' enclave of hedge funds. The liabilities of its lenders are twice Irish GDP. Britain, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria and Luxembourg are in the same boat.

Mr Cowen said the original ¤440bn (£368bn) bail-out agreed in September had been successful in containing a liquidity crisis but had since been overtaken by events in the global markets.

Officials from Ireland's treasury and central bank are scrambling to put together a new package, this time involving a direct infusion of money into the banks to raise core capital ratios to safer levels.

Dublin hopes to attract money from buy-out firms such as JC Flowers, but this is becoming ever harder as the Irish property crash plays havoc with the banks' asset books. The government may have to dip into its Pension Reserve Fund.

Ronnie O'Toole, chief economist at National Irish Bank, said construction was in free fall, dropping towards 20,000 homes a year from 90,000 at the peak of the bubble. Retail property prices have fallen 33pc and office prices have dropped 26pc.

Ulster Bank gave warning that Ireland's economy will contract by 4pc next year. As a member of the eurozone, Ireland cannot devalue or slash interest rates to cushion the downturn. Nor can it resort to a fiscal boost since the budget deficit is nearing 8pc of GDP.

Dr O'Toole said Ireland had low debt, a young population and would "get through this".

Bron: Telegraph.co.uk

SeLang	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 12:21
	quote: Markets wary of Irish debt as fresh rescue looms Ireland's bank rescue has begun to unravel despite a blanket debt guarantee for the country's top lenders, prompting concerns that Europe's credit crisis may be entering a second and more menacing phase. The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, told the Irish parliament yesterday that he was exploring "all options" to shore up the banks after the collapse of their share prices over recent days. While talk of a fresh bail-out has helped revive the battered stocks of Anglo Irish, Bank of Ireland and other lenders, it appears merely to have shifted the risk to the Irish state itself. Michael Klawitter, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the cost of insuring Irish sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) has surged to 133 basis points. "The markets have begun to see a risk to the solvency of the Irish government. They are questioning whether it has the financial muscle to back up the guarantees," he said. This is a disturbing pattern across Europe as the global credit crisis drags on, with extreme cases in Iceland, Ukraine, Russia, Hungary and Latvia. There are fears that investors could start to shun sovereign debt in Western states where banks have outgrown the underlying economy. Ireland is vulnerable because financial services make up 9.8pc of GDP, including its 'Canary Dwarf' enclave of hedge funds. The liabilities of its lenders are twice Irish GDP. Britain, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria and Luxembourg are in the same boat. Mr Cowen said the original ¤440bn (£368bn) bail-out agreed in September had been successful in containing a liquidity crisis but had since been overtaken by events in the global markets. Officials from Ireland's treasury and central bank are scrambling to put together a new package, this time involving a direct infusion of money into the banks to raise core capital ratios to safer levels. Dublin hopes to attract money from buy-out firms such as JC Flowers, but this is becoming ever harder as the Irish property crash plays havoc with the banks' asset books. The government may have to dip into its Pension Reserve Fund. Ronnie O'Toole, chief economist at National Irish Bank, said construction was in free fall, dropping towards 20,000 homes a year from 90,000 at the peak of the bubble. Retail property prices have fallen 33pc and office prices have dropped 26pc. Ulster Bank gave warning that Ireland's economy will contract by 4pc next year. As a member of the eurozone, Ireland cannot devalue or slash interest rates to cushion the downturn. Nor can it resort to a fiscal boost since the budget deficit is nearing 8pc of GDP. Dr O'Toole said Ireland had low debt, a young population and would "get through this". Bron: Telegraph.co.uk
Emu	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 12:50
	Ierland is gevaarlijk nu ja, als ze niet de euro hanteerden waren ze al lang in de problemen gekomen, nu kunnen ze er mss nog aan ontsnappen. Hun buitenlandse schulden zijn erg groot. External debt (% of GDP) Ierland 960.86% Nederland 352.75% België 348.74% Frankrijk 211.86% Duitsland 159.92%
pberends	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 13:00
	Dan staat Nederland er ook niet rooskleurig voor... alhoewel wij vast en zeker ook enorme schuldeisers zijn aan het buitenland.
Goverman	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 13:56
	tot op heden heeft Nederland nog altijd schulden afbetaald, zelfs in WOII. Een en ander betekent ook dat buitenlanders graag geld aan Nederland uitgeven, omdat Nederland een uitstekende reputatie heeft als het gaat om bedragen terugbetalen.
NLweltmeister	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 14:15
	Letland is ook aan het omvallen., die riepen van de week al om steun
henkway	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 14:35
	Zal dit leiden tot het uiteenvallen van de EU??
pberends	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 15:47
	quote: Op zondag 23 november 2008 14:35 schreef henkway het volgende: Zal dit leiden tot het uiteenvallen van de EU?? Alsof die Amerikaanse staten niet aan't omvallen zijn. Heel veel staten hebben enorme tekorten die ze op dit moment niet meer kunnen financieren.
HiZ	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 19:41
	quote: Op zondag 23 november 2008 14:35 schreef henkway het volgende: Zal dit leiden tot het uiteenvallen van de EU?? Zucht, daar gaan we weer. Wanneer gaan mensen eindelijk eens begrijpen dat de EU/EMU combinatie zijn leden juist beschermt tegen de marktschommelingen. Als er één ding is wat we nu niet kunnen missen is het hebben van een echte serieuze reserve-valuta als 'ons' geld.
Drugshond	zondag 23 november 2008 @ 20:02
	quote: Op zondag 23 november 2008 14:35 schreef henkway het volgende: Zal dit leiden tot het uiteenvallen van de EU?? Dit nog niet.... maar omgekeerd laat het wel zien dat de EU te snel van stapel is gelopen. Met de genzen van de EEG waren we beter af.
RemcoDelft	maandag 24 november 2008 @ 10:18
	Hetzelfde kan je stellen voor Nederland: Wouter Bos die heel leuk 200 miljard euro garant wil staan voor onderlinge leningen, in de hoop het vertrouwen te redden, in de hoop dat het daardoor niet nodig is om garant te staan! Maar als er serieus stront aan de knikker is, verdubbelt de staatsschuld, nog afgezien van de garanties voor buitenlandse spaartegoeden (bij ING alleen al honderden miljarden), en dan gaat Nederland ook over de kop. Jammer dat de overheid zichzelf nu in gevaar brengt om banken te redden...
icecreamfarmer_NL	maandag 24 november 2008 @ 13:46
	quote: Op zondag 23 november 2008 12:50 schreef Emu het volgende: Ierland is gevaarlijk nu ja, als ze niet de euro hanteerden waren ze al lang in de problemen gekomen, nu kunnen ze er mss nog aan ontsnappen. Hun buitenlandse schulden zijn erg groot. External debt (% of GDP) Ierland 960.86% Nederland 352.75% België 348.74% Frankrijk 211.86% Duitsland 159.92% apart we hadden toch maar 40% van het bnp aan schulden