WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
quote:Op woensdag 8 december 2010 14:49 schreef rubje het volgende:
[..]
preciesen met Wikileaks wordt dat andermaal onderschreven hoe hypocriet die yanks eigenlijk zijn.
Je denkt dat Chinezen anders zijn??
idd die naieviteit. Ik denk dat de Chinezen nog wel erger zijn. Hoeven immers geen verantwoording af te leggen.quote:Op woensdag 8 december 2010 20:04 schreef Swetsenegger het volgende:
[..]
Outlook 2011 & the Next Decade: China, Is The Smart Money Right?
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.
The country has major infrastructure issues, troubling population dynamics, poorly aligned employment outcomes, inflation problems, a real estate bubble, an opaque and potentially insolvent banking system (had mark-to-market accounting been applied), geo-political problems with North Korea and Taiwan, and an underperforming stock market in 2010 (see stock comparison chart).
Smart Money Rushing Out
While the hot money is flooding into China, the smart local money is doing everything they can to get their money outside of China, which partly explains why Shanghai SE Composite has underperformed other markets for the past year or so (see Comparison Chart).
The many issues of China could conspire to become the biggest train wreck waiting to happen, and potentially dwarf any little budget problems in Europe by a factor of ten.
Big Trouble In Big China
China has a population related societal structural problem. The nation has tried to utilize the vast manpower to its advantage over the last two decades building a powerhouse manufacturing economy through the availability of low cost workers, which supplied the world with lower cost goods.
Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that the nation's infrastructure, quality jobs, food, and overall resources are too scarce to support such mass population, while achieving the government`s goal of a smooth transition to a developed middle class to sustain an internal demand model going forward.
If you think having riots in Greece over the pension retirement age being raised is bad, just wait till riots breaking out in Beijing and other cities over a 90 cent bowl of noodle soup now costing four dollars due to food shortages, and a runaway inflation problem.
Loose Lending = Non-performing Projects
This is only reinforced by some of the news events taking place over the last three months. Let`s start with the raising of banks reserve requirements by the central bank, which is the sixth such increase in 2010.
These measures are meant to curb the excess lending which has fueled much of the overbuilding and real estate speculation occurred over the past two years as China`s central bank initially wanted to avert a recession by artificially creating demand for workers and construction projects to replace lagging demand from the developed economies.
The problem is that too much lending has occurred, and bad lending at that. Because of the cheap available credit, now you have cement companies and manufacturing firms getting bank loans to invest in endeavors such as real estate, which is outside of their core expertise and competency.
Real Estate Misery Loves Company – China & Spain
The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.
This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.
So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.
The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.
A similar scenario could play out in China as well.
True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino
Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.
This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.
Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.
Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.
I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.
This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.
Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class
Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.
China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.
Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.
No Jobs for College Grads
For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.
China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.
The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste
This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.
In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.
8% Inflation in 2011
The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.
Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.
For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.
Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.
An Asian Contagion by China?
This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.
By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.
History Repeats Itself
Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.
By Dian L. Chu, EconForecast
China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.
The country has major infrastructure issues, troubling population dynamics, poorly aligned employment outcomes, inflation problems, a real estate bubble, an opaque and potentially insolvent banking system (had mark-to-market accounting been applied), geo-political problems with North Korea and Taiwan, and an underperforming stock market in 2010 (see stock comparison chart).
Smart Money Rushing Out
While the hot money is flooding into China, the smart local money is doing everything they can to get their money outside of China, which partly explains why Shanghai SE Composite has underperformed other markets for the past year or so (see Comparison Chart).
The many issues of China could conspire to become the biggest train wreck waiting to happen, and potentially dwarf any little budget problems in Europe by a factor of ten.
Big Trouble In Big China
China has a population related societal structural problem. The nation has tried to utilize the vast manpower to its advantage over the last two decades building a powerhouse manufacturing economy through the availability of low cost workers, which supplied the world with lower cost goods.
Nevertheless, the harsh reality is that the nation's infrastructure, quality jobs, food, and overall resources are too scarce to support such mass population, while achieving the government`s goal of a smooth transition to a developed middle class to sustain an internal demand model going forward.
If you think having riots in Greece over the pension retirement age being raised is bad, just wait till riots breaking out in Beijing and other cities over a 90 cent bowl of noodle soup now costing four dollars due to food shortages, and a runaway inflation problem.
Loose Lending = Non-performing Projects
This is only reinforced by some of the news events taking place over the last three months. Let`s start with the raising of banks reserve requirements by the central bank, which is the sixth such increase in 2010.
These measures are meant to curb the excess lending which has fueled much of the overbuilding and real estate speculation occurred over the past two years as China`s central bank initially wanted to avert a recession by artificially creating demand for workers and construction projects to replace lagging demand from the developed economies.
The problem is that too much lending has occurred, and bad lending at that. Because of the cheap available credit, now you have cement companies and manufacturing firms getting bank loans to invest in endeavors such as real estate, which is outside of their core expertise and competency.
Real Estate Misery Loves Company – China & Spain
The result is a bunch of excess inventory and poorly thought-out construction projects which have no means of recouping the initial investment needed to repay the bank loans.
This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.
So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.
The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.
A similar scenario could play out in China as well.
True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino
Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.
This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.
Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.
Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.
I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.
This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.
Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class
Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.
China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.
Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.
No Jobs for College Grads
For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.
China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.
The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste
This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.
In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.
8% Inflation in 2011
The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.
Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.
For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.
Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.
An Asian Contagion by China?
This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.
By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.
History Repeats Itself
Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.
Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole.
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Ze verhogen de rente ook, dat kan nog interessant worden. 
Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole.
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:27 schreef Perrin het volgende: En net als van voetbal, heeft iedereen verstand van macro-economie
Ik kwam ergens deze link tegen, iemand die actief geweest is met google earth en lege chinese steden heeft gezocht.
http://www.businessinside(...)ities-2010-12?slop=1
http://www.businessinside(...)ities-2010-12?slop=1
Tsja, de overheid legt targets op dat de economie jaarlijks 12% ofzo moet groeien en dat kunnen ze alleen maar bereiken door te blijven bouwen. Of je die gebouwen nu nodig hebt of niet.
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Daarnaast wil elke provinciebobo het beter doen dan zijn concurrent, dus worden er ook zelf opgelegde targets bovenop die van het centrale planburo gelegd.
Wat tot gevolg heeft dat de ene provincie met de andere concurreert ipv met het buitenland en ze nu bijvoorbeeld enorme overcapaciteit hebben in pc assemblage.
Wat tot gevolg heeft dat de ene provincie met de andere concurreert ipv met het buitenland en ze nu bijvoorbeeld enorme overcapaciteit hebben in pc assemblage.
'Chinese economie riskeert harde landing'
AMSTERDAM - De Chinese economie leunt te veel op investeringen in vastgoed, wat na 2013 'een harde landing kan veroorzaken'.
Foto: NU.nl/Chris Heijmans
Dat stelt econoom Nouriel Roubini, die als een van de weinigen ook de wereldwijde economische crisis wist te voorspellen.
De investeringen in China zijn gestegen tot 50 procent van het bruto binnenlands product. "Dat betekent dat je uiteindelijk twee problemen zult hebben: kredieten die niet functioneren en een enorme overcapaciteit", aldus Roubini zaterdag in Singapore, zo meldt Bloomberg.
Bankencrisis
Eerder berekende kredietbeoordelingsbureau Fitch Ratings al dat China zestig procent kans heeft op een bankencrisis halverwege 2013, als gevolg van de hoeveelheid leningen en stijgende vastgoedprijzen.
Ondanks door de overheid ingestelde prijzenplafonds, hogere kredieteisen voor banken en een beperking van de aankoop van tweede huizen staan de vastgoedprijzen op recordhoogte.
Maatregelen
Volgens Roubini moeten de autoriteiten maatregelen nemen om de prijzen te controleren, de rente verder op te voeren en inflatie tegen te gaan.
"De beleidsuitdaging voor volgend jaar is om de groei van acht tot negen procent te handhaven en de inflatie te verminderen", aldus Roubini. "Na volgend jaar is de grotere uitdaging om investeringen in vaste activa en spaartegoeden te beperken en consumptie te verhogen."
De econoom zei verder dat er bewijs is voor een verdere vertraging van de wereldwijde economische groei en dat de olieprijs kan oplopen tot wel 150 dollar per vat, als de onrust in olieproducerende naties blijft bestaan.
-------------------------------
China is er nog niet..... nog lange niet.
AMSTERDAM - De Chinese economie leunt te veel op investeringen in vastgoed, wat na 2013 'een harde landing kan veroorzaken'.
Foto: NU.nl/Chris Heijmans
Dat stelt econoom Nouriel Roubini, die als een van de weinigen ook de wereldwijde economische crisis wist te voorspellen.
De investeringen in China zijn gestegen tot 50 procent van het bruto binnenlands product. "Dat betekent dat je uiteindelijk twee problemen zult hebben: kredieten die niet functioneren en een enorme overcapaciteit", aldus Roubini zaterdag in Singapore, zo meldt Bloomberg.
Bankencrisis
Eerder berekende kredietbeoordelingsbureau Fitch Ratings al dat China zestig procent kans heeft op een bankencrisis halverwege 2013, als gevolg van de hoeveelheid leningen en stijgende vastgoedprijzen.
Ondanks door de overheid ingestelde prijzenplafonds, hogere kredieteisen voor banken en een beperking van de aankoop van tweede huizen staan de vastgoedprijzen op recordhoogte.
Maatregelen
Volgens Roubini moeten de autoriteiten maatregelen nemen om de prijzen te controleren, de rente verder op te voeren en inflatie tegen te gaan.
"De beleidsuitdaging voor volgend jaar is om de groei van acht tot negen procent te handhaven en de inflatie te verminderen", aldus Roubini. "Na volgend jaar is de grotere uitdaging om investeringen in vaste activa en spaartegoeden te beperken en consumptie te verhogen."
De econoom zei verder dat er bewijs is voor een verdere vertraging van de wereldwijde economische groei en dat de olieprijs kan oplopen tot wel 150 dollar per vat, als de onrust in olieproducerende naties blijft bestaan.
-------------------------------
China is er nog niet..... nog lange niet.
China zal niet zo maar uithalen richting de Amerikaanse dollar en de Verenigde Staten van Noord-Amerika. Alles heeft bij China een dubbele agenda en ik zou,hoe mooi het ook allemaal klinkt,niet teveel op het China concept inzetten want als er iets is wat de afgelopen tientallen jaren wel is gebleken dan is dat de Amerikaanse economie er altijd weer bovenop komt.quote:Op maandag 8 december 2008 08:22 schreef Netstorm het volgende:
Indd.. als ze hun marktpositie kwijtraken en verovereren ze het maar weer terug met nuke's. Zijn net kleine kinderen op de basisschool die de baas willen blijven
Big fat bubble.quote:Moody's: schuld $540 miljard onderschat, gevaar voor Chinese banken
De schuld van lokale overheden ligt 3,5 biljoen yuan, of $540 miljard, hoger dan accountants hadden geschat. Dat kan banken met veel grotere verliezen opzadelen, hetgeen hun ratings in gevaar kan brengen.
Is Wall St. te koop denk je?quote:Op zondag 26 oktober 2008 07:54 schreef LXIV het volgende:
Als China slim is doen ze niet moeilijk maar kopen gewoon Wallstreet op. + de AEX. Daar hebben ze toch veel meer aan!
Je kan je ook afvragen of je wel boos moet zijn...quote:
Heb het eerste artilel gelezen, op zich wel bekend maar toch de moeite waard van het lezen
[..]
dit wist ik niet en verbaasd me dan ook.
Je kan je afvragen op wie je boos moet zijn: op de USA omdat ze slim gebruik maken van hun dollar. Of de sukkels die slaafs achter die dollar aan blijven lopen. Geef de amerikanen eens ongelijk.
Dat de Chinese munt niet internationaal verhandelbaar is heeft trouwens een goede reden.
Jij denkt dat goud ook uit een printer komt?quote:
[..]
en goud is maar goud. Niets anders dan papiergeld eigenlijk.
Je zou je kunnen afvragen of dat dan 'wetenschap' was...quote:
[..]
Wel leuk om te zien, dat je dit nu zegt, ik kan me je strategieen van maanden geleden nog herinneren dat bij een S&P van 1000 of was het 900 een goed instap moment zou zijn met de wetenschap die we toen hadden.
Dat speelt zeker mee. Eigenlijk een soort Marschall-plan II.quote:
[..]
Chinezen doorgronden is een kunst op zich. Ik kan wel een gokje wagen.
Het doet me denken aan een verdeel en heers politiek. China krijgt op deze manier voet aan de grond in Europa (De Atheense haven is niet zo ver van het olierijke middenoosten), zet de Europese Unie met al hun voorwaarden te kakken, en trekt ook nog een kleine lange neus naar Amerika als redder van een natie uit het kamp van de US.
Daarnaast vind China de Amerikaanse hegemonie in de financiële markten via de dollar niet zo prettig, en de euro biedt een mooi alternatief als handelsmunt.
(Collapse van de dollar zonder alternatief zou instorting van de wereldhandel betekenen, vandaar dat de dollar vroeger zoveel gesteund werd.)
Een bubble in China omdat een Amerikaans rating-bureau dat zegt...quote:
Je kan je afvragen hoe waardevol (en objectief) de praatjes van Moody's eigenlijk zijn.
Als je de tekst had gelezen werd je duidelijk dat de lokale Chinese overheid de laatste jaren een schuld van 2,2 triljoen dollar heeft opgebouwd! En dat is waarschijnlijk nog meer door boekhoudkundige regels! Dat Moodys dat rapporteerd doet er niet toe.quote:
Een bubble in China omdat een Amerikaans rating-bureau dat zegt...
Je kan je afvragen hoe waardevol (en objectief) de praatjes van Moody's eigenlijk zijn.
De Chinese overheid stuurt hier natuurlijk op aan om een bepaalde economische groei te behouden. Je kunt je vraagtekens zetten hoe veel van die groei duurzaam is en welke gevolgen het heeft voor de toekomst. Naast die schuldenexplosie zijn er meer onevenwichtigheden in de Chinese economie te vinden (o.a. in dit topic genoemd), die nooit duurzaam kunnen zijn en toekomstige gevolgen gaan hebben. Een big fat bubble als je het mij vraagt.
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
quote:
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Ik ben het ook helemaal eens met die laatste zin:
quote:Personally, it reminds me of the prophetic words attributed to Louis XV, a resident of the original Versailles: ”après nous, le déluge” — or to paraphrase, “when this is over, all hell’s gonna break loose.”
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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http://fd.nl/economie-pol(...)-voor-chinese-importquote:Nieuw record voor Chinese import
De Chinese import bereikte afgelopen maand een recordhoogte, terwijl ook de export beter was dan verwacht. Het handelsoverschot kromp en China lijkt de problemen in Europa en de VS goed te kunnen weerstaan.
De import steeg in augustus met 30,2% ten opzichte van een jaar eerder tot $155,6 mrd. De export groeide met 24,5% iets minder snel, waardoor het handelsoverschot verkleind werd tot $17,76 mrd. In juli was dat nog $31,5 mrd.
Tegelijkertijd nam de inflatie vorige maand af, nadat die op het hoogste punt in drie jaar stond. Volgens persbureau Bloomberg lijkt China erin te slagen de inflatie te beperken zonder de economische groei te smoren. De economie groeit er bovendien behoorlijk, terwijl de VS en Europa worstelen met hun economieën.
Volgens de Amerikaanse bank Citigroup komt de economische groei in China dit jaar uit op 9%, zeker vijf maal hoger dan in de VS of Europa.
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.quote:
Hoe investeert een Chinees staatsbedrijf (in dit geval een pharmaceut die westerse geneesmiddelen kopieert) het geld dat Beijing hem toeschuift?
Nou, bijvoorbeeld door voor zichzelf een hoofdkantoor uit marmer en goud te bouwen waar Versailles bij verbleekt:
http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/apres-nous-le-deluge/
Het is gewoon China's gouden eeuw! Dan krijg je dat soort dingen. Hebben wij ook gedaan toen het kon.
The End Times are wild
Het is wel duidelijk waar de grondstoffen bubble vandaan komt. En allemaal gefinancierd met bad debt
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Waarom zou China moeten crashen dan?quote:
Het is wel duidelijk waar de grondstoffen bubble vandaan komt. En allemaal gefinancierd met bad debt
Ik geloof nog steeds dat de komende crash van China mogelijk de nekslag wordt voor de economie, vooral omdat China de kurk is waar equity en grondstoffen markten nog steeds op drijven. De geringe media coverage suggereert ook dat dit probleem voor veel investeerders een "black swan" gaat worden, net zoals de subprime crisis dat was (ook dat kon je makkelijk zien aankomen, maar werd grotendeels genegeerd).
The End Times are wild
Kijk eens even waar de GDP groei vandaan komt en hoe het wordt gefinancierd...quote:
[..]
Waarom zou China moeten crashen dan?
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Die 30x30's ogen minder mooi maar hebben weer andere voordelen.quote:
[..]
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Ja maar das ook omdat natuursteen daar gewoon gewonnen kan worden. Hier moet goed natuursteen soms helemaal geimporteerd worden uit andere landen. Maar ook hier gaan die lelijke tegels steeds vaker weg.quote:
[..]
Toch pakken die Chinezen dat een stuk beter aan. In Shanghai heeft zelfs het meest lullige station natuurstenen vloeren. In Nederland liggen er 30x30 betontegels in Amsterdam Centraal.
Maar inderdaad. China gaat momenteel echt razend hard. Neem bijvoorbeeld Tianjin. De foto's hieronder laten slechts 1 projectgebied zien van de twee die nu in aanbouw zijn in die stad. Toch zijn alleen in dit project waarschijnlijk al meer gebouwen in aanbouw dat in heel Nederland. Als je dan kijkt naar hoeveel er in China als geheel gaande is val je echt achterover. Dit is volgens mij niet eens het grootste project wat gaande is.
En dit moet er dan over een aantal jaar staan:
[ Bericht 15% gewijzigd door Eyjafjallajoekull op 10-09-2011 16:20:45 ]
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
quote:Op zaterdag 10 september 2011 16:12 schreef Eyjafjallajoekull het volgende:
En dit moet er dan over een aantal jaar leegstaan:
Op donderdag 6 september 2012 @ 21:41 schreef Shakkara het volgende:
Uiteraard is het volgens Rutte en consorten de schuld van een imaginair links kabinet dat we ooit ergens in het verleden gehad schijnen te hebben.
Uiteraard is het volgens Rutte en consorten de schuld van een imaginair links kabinet dat we ooit ergens in het verleden gehad schijnen te hebben.
Ja daar hoor je veel over. Dat zal ook zeker het geval zijn op sommige plekken maar vergeet niet dat er naar schatting 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad gaan verhuizen in de komende decennia. Dat zijn een hoop mensen die werk en huisvesting zullen willen. Plus dat het gebied wat je hierboven ziet vast zit aan een bestaande stad van een paar miljoen inwoners die ook nog eens erg belangrijk is voor China. Relatief gezien is bovenstaand project hetzelfde als de zuid-as is voor Amsterdam.quote:
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland? als over 50 jaar ongeveer 1 miljard mensen in de stad wonen in china, heb je nog 400 a 500 miljoen mensen op het platteland wonen. Alsnog een derde. Meer dan genoeg. Sterker nog, volgens mij is 10% nog voldoende...quote:
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
Opgeblazen gevoel of winderigheid? Zo opgelost met Rennie!
Probleem is alleen dat die boeren geen geld hebben, dus hoe kunnen die kopen..... subprime the Chineese way ?quote:
Wie gaat al die mensen te eten geven, vraag ik me dan af. 500 miljoen mensen van het platteland naar de stad betekent dus een flinke vermindering van de voedselproductie.
4% van de bevolking en we hebben flinke overschotten. Daarentegen zijn Nederlandse boeren zo'n beetje de meest efficiënte boeren op aarde.quote:
[..]
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland? als over 50 jaar ongeveer 1 miljard mensen in de stad wonen in china, heb je nog 400 a 500 miljoen mensen op het platteland wonen. Alsnog een derde. Meer dan genoeg. Sterker nog, volgens mij is 10% nog voldoende...
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Zet er een westers farmaceutisch bedrijf naast, en ik ben zeer bereid om daar te gaan wonen/werken!quote:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
Een Ponzi-schemequote:China Home Prices Rise, Challenge Curbs
China’s August new-home prices rose in all 70 cities monitored for the first time this year, undercutting government efforts to cool the market through higher down-payments and mortgage rates.
Prices in Beijing advanced 1.9 percent from a year ago, while those in Shanghai, the nation’s financial center, increased 2.8 percent, the statistics bureau said on its website yesterday. New home prices climbed in 67 out of 70 cities in the first half this year and were up in all but two in July.
China’s measures to control its property market are at a critical stage and the nation needs to focus efforts on curbing price increases in less affluent cities after limiting home purchases by each family in metropolitan areas including Beijing and Shanghai, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Sept. 1. Only two cities responded to the government’s July call for added restrictions on housing purchases, as local governments rely on land sales to pay mounting debt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/(...)overnment-curbs.html
"If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans"
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Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.quote:
[..]
4% van de bevolking en we hebben flinke overschotten. Daarentegen zijn Nederlandse boeren zo'n beetje de meest efficiënte boeren op aarde.
For great justice!
Automatisering is heel makkelijk bij het vlakke land landbouw zoals we in NL kennen, maar terrassen landbouw met rijstvelden daar krijg je geen tractoren in de kleine terrassen.quote:
[..]
Automatisering. Hoeveel procent van de bevolking verzorgt het eten in Nederland?
Het kan altijd nog uit steenkolen of het mestoverschot gewonnen worden.quote:Op maandag 19 september 2011 10:01 schreef Q. het volgende:
[..]
Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.
1/10 Van de rappers dankt zijn bestaan in Amerika aan de Nederlanders die zijn voorouders met een cruiseschip uit hun hongerige landen ophaalde om te werken op prachtige plantages.
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
"Oorlog is de overtreffende trap van concurrentie."
Klopt, Nederlandse boeren zijn zo efficient omdat ze mensenkracht vervangen hebben voor machinekracht. Maar dat kost wel veel olie en gas.quote:
[..]
Gevoed door een grote hoeveelheid olie en kunstmest. Zodra die moeilijker leverbaar worden wordt de onderhoudbaarheid van de bevolking een stuk lastiger.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." - Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool." - William Shakespeare (1564 - 1616)
Slik je zoveel pillen?quote:
Zet er een westers farmaceutisch bedrijf naast, en ik ben zeer bereid om daar te gaan wonen/werken!
quote:
[..]
Klopt, Nederlandse boeren zijn zo efficient omdat ze mensenkracht vervangen hebben voor machinekracht. Maar dat kost wel veel olie en gas.
Daarom is de komende energie crisis veel destructiever dan de kredietcrisis. Als wij niet snel de technologie benutten om ons te voorzien van duurzame energie zal de mensheid de komende 50 jaar decimeren. Kun je nagaan wat dat voor de onroerend goed zeepbel gaat betekenen
"No, I do not believe in patents. I believe that patents make other people dis-incentied in coming up with new thing" - Thomas Peterffy
China Loan Shark Market Crashes; Scores of Chinese Business Owners Unable to Pay Black Market Loans Commit Suicide or Disappear
Here is an interesting email from reader "Kevin" regarding the crashing loan-shark market in China.
========================================
Hello Mish
I am a long time reader and want to bring to your attention on a new development in China: private business owners are disappearing or jumping off buildings because they can no longer pay off black market shark loans.
According to national new paper Economics Information (part of state media Xinhua), on 9/22, Hu Fulin, owner of the biggest eyeglass manufacture of the city of Wenzhou disappeared, leaving behind 2 billion RMB debt.
On 9/25, 3 more business owners in Wenzhou disappeared (owners of copper, steel and shoe manufacture).
On 9/27, owner of "Zhengdeli", a shoe manufacture jumped off of a 22 story building and killed himself.
Since April this year 29 private business owners have disappeared, all of them had over 100 million RMB businesses. 11 of the 29 owned shoe manufacturing businesses.
An analyst from China Investment (China's Sovereign investment fund) pointed out that it's because they are squeezed by a rapid increase of component and labor costs. A rising RMB is also a reason why many export oriented companies are hit. In August, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou Small-Medium Business Development Association said the profit margin of Small-Medium businesses in Wenzhou has dropped to under 5% and absent of policy changes, 40% of businesses in Wenzhou will go out of business by next Spring Festival (late Jan 2012)
The complete article is here (in Chinese): http://www.jjckb.cn/2011-09/29/content_334954.htm.
Another article http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20110929/005910558780.shtml (titled: China's Shark Loans Crashing; "Grey Finance" Brewing the Chinese Crisis) states that most of those owners have borrowed "private" loans (typically 70% of all loans), with MONTHLY interest rate ranging from 3% to 10%.
About 89% of families/individuals and 59% of companies in Wenzhou participated in such "private loan" schemes. In Erdos (the ghost city you blogged many times), such "private loans" are more than 200 billion RMB with annual interest rate over 60%. Now they are crashing, causing rampant unfinished real estate projects in Erdos.
Note that Wenzhou is one of riches cities in China (No. 3 in disposable income per capita), and is considered the "Birthplace of China's Private Economy". Wenzhou people are among the first that got in trades, manufacturing, export, and in recent years real estate investment/speculation. The Wenzhou economy is considered the "weathercock" of Chinese economy.
========================================
Loan Shark Credit Crisis Brewing
Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Gray Chinese-style financial credit crisis brewing area
"Economic Information Daily" correspondent from the multi-confirmed the day before and then there were two causes of Wenzhou City, inability to repay loan sharks and jumping events. According to informed sources, the two business owners are the local shoe factory owner, debt of millions.
Since April this year, Wenzhou, missing more than 80 business owners, the company closed, the event staff pay talks, since September alone, there are up to 25 cases. A local lender told reporters, "At present, only the flight of capital Longwan area estimated to have 100 million or more, many SMEs liabilities, the banks accounted for 30%, accounting for 70% civil usury."
Crazy expansion of private lending market chaos
Some sharks can reach up to 180% per annum. ... "many companies debt snowball, private lending market has not been given attention now has about 25% local to 30% of companies in trouble, some in the suspension or semi-shutdown state, but by the end of this class companies are more likely accounted for 40% to 50%. "
Financial Earthquake Triggered by Loan Shark Business
Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider loan-sharking business owners who jumped to escape
September 22, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Jiang Xintai largest optical company chairman Hu Fulin liabilities 2 billion fled, triggering a major earthquake Wenzhou business. Wenzhou Zhou German SME Development Association president, said Hu Fulin liabilities involving nearly ten thousand people, dozens of companies, including upstream and downstream Nobuyasu and creditors, the incident is still fermenting, the impact will be further expanded.
Hu Fulin fled after the September 25 Wenzhou enterprises have three big boss fled; afternoon of September 27, Wenzhou shoe boss is profit because of debt problems from Wenzhou Shun Building, 22 Floor, Jin jumped to death.
The translations are choppy, but the ideas very easy to spot.
$SSEC - Shanghai Exchange -Daily Chart
China is down another 1% (not reflected in the above chart), to 2368 as of 2:00 AM Thursday. It closed at 2365.
The Shanghai stock market depicts a credit bubble that collapsed in 2008, partially rebounded, and is sinking once again.
China did not decouple from the global economy, nor is there any reason to believe it will, or should. China's debt bubble, housing bubble, and copper Ponzi financing schemes are collapsing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owke.... feest in China dus.
Here is an interesting email from reader "Kevin" regarding the crashing loan-shark market in China.
========================================
Hello Mish
I am a long time reader and want to bring to your attention on a new development in China: private business owners are disappearing or jumping off buildings because they can no longer pay off black market shark loans.
According to national new paper Economics Information (part of state media Xinhua), on 9/22, Hu Fulin, owner of the biggest eyeglass manufacture of the city of Wenzhou disappeared, leaving behind 2 billion RMB debt.
On 9/25, 3 more business owners in Wenzhou disappeared (owners of copper, steel and shoe manufacture).
On 9/27, owner of "Zhengdeli", a shoe manufacture jumped off of a 22 story building and killed himself.
Since April this year 29 private business owners have disappeared, all of them had over 100 million RMB businesses. 11 of the 29 owned shoe manufacturing businesses.
An analyst from China Investment (China's Sovereign investment fund) pointed out that it's because they are squeezed by a rapid increase of component and labor costs. A rising RMB is also a reason why many export oriented companies are hit. In August, Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou Small-Medium Business Development Association said the profit margin of Small-Medium businesses in Wenzhou has dropped to under 5% and absent of policy changes, 40% of businesses in Wenzhou will go out of business by next Spring Festival (late Jan 2012)
The complete article is here (in Chinese): http://www.jjckb.cn/2011-09/29/content_334954.htm.
Another article http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20110929/005910558780.shtml (titled: China's Shark Loans Crashing; "Grey Finance" Brewing the Chinese Crisis) states that most of those owners have borrowed "private" loans (typically 70% of all loans), with MONTHLY interest rate ranging from 3% to 10%.
About 89% of families/individuals and 59% of companies in Wenzhou participated in such "private loan" schemes. In Erdos (the ghost city you blogged many times), such "private loans" are more than 200 billion RMB with annual interest rate over 60%. Now they are crashing, causing rampant unfinished real estate projects in Erdos.
Note that Wenzhou is one of riches cities in China (No. 3 in disposable income per capita), and is considered the "Birthplace of China's Private Economy". Wenzhou people are among the first that got in trades, manufacturing, export, and in recent years real estate investment/speculation. The Wenzhou economy is considered the "weathercock" of Chinese economy.
========================================
Loan Shark Credit Crisis Brewing
Courtesy of Google Translate please consider Gray Chinese-style financial credit crisis brewing area
"Economic Information Daily" correspondent from the multi-confirmed the day before and then there were two causes of Wenzhou City, inability to repay loan sharks and jumping events. According to informed sources, the two business owners are the local shoe factory owner, debt of millions.
Since April this year, Wenzhou, missing more than 80 business owners, the company closed, the event staff pay talks, since September alone, there are up to 25 cases. A local lender told reporters, "At present, only the flight of capital Longwan area estimated to have 100 million or more, many SMEs liabilities, the banks accounted for 30%, accounting for 70% civil usury."
Crazy expansion of private lending market chaos
Some sharks can reach up to 180% per annum. ... "many companies debt snowball, private lending market has not been given attention now has about 25% local to 30% of companies in trouble, some in the suspension or semi-shutdown state, but by the end of this class companies are more likely accounted for 40% to 50%. "
Financial Earthquake Triggered by Loan Shark Business
Also courtesy of Google Translate, please consider loan-sharking business owners who jumped to escape
September 22, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Jiang Xintai largest optical company chairman Hu Fulin liabilities 2 billion fled, triggering a major earthquake Wenzhou business. Wenzhou Zhou German SME Development Association president, said Hu Fulin liabilities involving nearly ten thousand people, dozens of companies, including upstream and downstream Nobuyasu and creditors, the incident is still fermenting, the impact will be further expanded.
Hu Fulin fled after the September 25 Wenzhou enterprises have three big boss fled; afternoon of September 27, Wenzhou shoe boss is profit because of debt problems from Wenzhou Shun Building, 22 Floor, Jin jumped to death.
The translations are choppy, but the ideas very easy to spot.
$SSEC - Shanghai Exchange -Daily Chart
China is down another 1% (not reflected in the above chart), to 2368 as of 2:00 AM Thursday. It closed at 2365.
The Shanghai stock market depicts a credit bubble that collapsed in 2008, partially rebounded, and is sinking once again.
China did not decouple from the global economy, nor is there any reason to believe it will, or should. China's debt bubble, housing bubble, and copper Ponzi financing schemes are collapsing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Owke.... feest in China dus.
Property Prices Collapse in China. Is This a Crash?
Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.
What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices. Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.
They were wrong. After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.” Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory. One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.
Citi’s Oscar Choi believes prices will decline another 10% next year, but that’s a conservative estimate. Even state-funded experts are more pessimistic. For example, Cao Jianhai of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences sees price cuts of 50% on homes if the government continues its cooling measures.
When Beijing’s pet analysts are saying prices could halve in a few months, we can be sure they are thinking the eventual sell-off will be worse. In any event, the markets are bracing for trouble. Investors are dumping both the bonds and the shares of Chinese developers, and legendary bear Jim Chanos, citing the property market, late last month said he is still not covering his short positions on China.
One does not have to agree that China will be “Dubai times 1,000—or worse”—Chanos’s memorable phrase—to understand that the unwinding of “the biggest housing bubble ever created” will be especially painful. Analysts have great confidence in Beijing’s technocrats because they managed to continue to manufacture growth through the global downturn, but most of us seem to forget that the Chinese, through massive stimulus, created even bigger challenges for themselves. At the moment, Beijing has yet to resolve two intractable problems: persistent inflation and artificially high property prices.
The dominant narrative at the moment is that China’s economic managers will skillfully deflate the property bubble and land the economy softly. As Time observes, “Many observers say a sharp economic decline won’t be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012.”
Won’t be permitted? It is true that Beijing’s technocrats have had the advantage of working in a semi-closed system that has allowed them to use the considerable resources of the state to achieve outcomes not possible in freer economies. Nonetheless, they can continue to do so—in other words, defy economic principles—only as long as market participants—in this case builders, local officials, and homeowners—cooperate.
The last four weeks, however, must have been a sobering period for Premier Wen, and not only because developers began to lose their nerve. For one thing, recent purchasers have taken to the streets because they had suffered losses even before taking possession of their homes. A crowd of about 300 people in Shanghai smashed windows at the sales office of Longfor Properties on October 22, two days after the builder had ended a sales promotion on a project. The protestors had bought properties in earlier phases of the same project at prices as much as 30% higher than the discounted ones.
And then, on the 23rd, a smaller crowd—on the same street—demonstrated against another developer, Greenland Group. Protesters were injured in Shanghai at another demonstration, this time against a unit of China Overseas Holdings. There were also protests against builders in Beijing and in other cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing.
The cities of Hangzhou and Hefei have reportedly told developers to limit discounts to 20% to avoid unrest, but the attempt to establish fiat prices will not work for long because many builders face insolvency.
Moreover, Premier Wen has to be concerned that sometimes he cannot control his own cities, which have flouted his decrees by removing curbs on property ownership. Nanjing defied Beijing and relaxed mortgage rules, as did Anhui province. At least in Foshan, a city in Guangdong, central authorities apparently convinced local leaders to rescind their earlier decision to scrap centrally mandated curbs.
The overriding reality is that, because of Beijing’s stimulus spending, there are too many properties and not enough buyers at this time. The market will have to arrive at equilibrium at some point, but what is surprising is the rapidity at which this is now happening. In common parlance, it’s called a crash.
Residential property prices are in freefall in China as developers race to meet revenue targets for the year in a quickly deteriorating market. The country’s largest builders began discounting homes in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen in recent weeks, and the trend has now spread to second- and third-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei, and Chongqing. In Chongqing, for instance, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa cut asking prices 32% at its Cape Coral project. “The price war has begun,” said Alan Chiang Sheung-lai of property consultant DTZ to the South China Morning Post.
What started slowly in September turned into a rout by the middle of last month—normally a good period for sales—when Shanghai developers started to slash asking prices. Analysts then expected falling property values to move Premier Wen Jiabao to relax tightening measures, such as increases in mortgage rates and prohibitions on second-home purchases, intended to cool the market.
They were wrong. After a State Council meeting on October 29, Mr. Wen affirmed his policy, stating that local authorities should continue to “strictly implement the central government’s real estate policies in the coming months to let citizens see the results of the curbs.” Then, the selling began in earnest as “desperate” developers competed among themselves to unload inventory. One builder—Excellence Group—even said it would sell flats in Huizhou at its development cost.
Citi’s Oscar Choi believes prices will decline another 10% next year, but that’s a conservative estimate. Even state-funded experts are more pessimistic. For example, Cao Jianhai of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences sees price cuts of 50% on homes if the government continues its cooling measures.
When Beijing’s pet analysts are saying prices could halve in a few months, we can be sure they are thinking the eventual sell-off will be worse. In any event, the markets are bracing for trouble. Investors are dumping both the bonds and the shares of Chinese developers, and legendary bear Jim Chanos, citing the property market, late last month said he is still not covering his short positions on China.
One does not have to agree that China will be “Dubai times 1,000—or worse”—Chanos’s memorable phrase—to understand that the unwinding of “the biggest housing bubble ever created” will be especially painful. Analysts have great confidence in Beijing’s technocrats because they managed to continue to manufacture growth through the global downturn, but most of us seem to forget that the Chinese, through massive stimulus, created even bigger challenges for themselves. At the moment, Beijing has yet to resolve two intractable problems: persistent inflation and artificially high property prices.
The dominant narrative at the moment is that China’s economic managers will skillfully deflate the property bubble and land the economy softly. As Time observes, “Many observers say a sharp economic decline won’t be permitted to happen before the change of leadership in 2012.”
Won’t be permitted? It is true that Beijing’s technocrats have had the advantage of working in a semi-closed system that has allowed them to use the considerable resources of the state to achieve outcomes not possible in freer economies. Nonetheless, they can continue to do so—in other words, defy economic principles—only as long as market participants—in this case builders, local officials, and homeowners—cooperate.
The last four weeks, however, must have been a sobering period for Premier Wen, and not only because developers began to lose their nerve. For one thing, recent purchasers have taken to the streets because they had suffered losses even before taking possession of their homes. A crowd of about 300 people in Shanghai smashed windows at the sales office of Longfor Properties on October 22, two days after the builder had ended a sales promotion on a project. The protestors had bought properties in earlier phases of the same project at prices as much as 30% higher than the discounted ones.
And then, on the 23rd, a smaller crowd—on the same street—demonstrated against another developer, Greenland Group. Protesters were injured in Shanghai at another demonstration, this time against a unit of China Overseas Holdings. There were also protests against builders in Beijing and in other cities, Hangzhou and Nanjing.
The cities of Hangzhou and Hefei have reportedly told developers to limit discounts to 20% to avoid unrest, but the attempt to establish fiat prices will not work for long because many builders face insolvency.
Moreover, Premier Wen has to be concerned that sometimes he cannot control his own cities, which have flouted his decrees by removing curbs on property ownership. Nanjing defied Beijing and relaxed mortgage rules, as did Anhui province. At least in Foshan, a city in Guangdong, central authorities apparently convinced local leaders to rescind their earlier decision to scrap centrally mandated curbs.
The overriding reality is that, because of Beijing’s stimulus spending, there are too many properties and not enough buyers at this time. The market will have to arrive at equilibrium at some point, but what is surprising is the rapidity at which this is now happening. In common parlance, it’s called a crash.
Fake Disneyland
China’s deserted fake Disneyland
Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST
By David Gray
Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks – the Great Wall of China – sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.
Situated on an area of around 100 acres, and 45 minutes drive from the center of Beijing, are the ruins of ‘Wonderland’. Construction stopped more than a decade ago, with developers promoting it as ‘the largest amusement park in Asia’. Funds were withdrawn due to disagreements over property prices with the local government and farmers. So what is left are the skeletal remains of a palace, a castle, and the steel beams of what could have been an indoor playground in the middle of a corn field.
Pulling off the expressway and into the car park, I expected to be stopped by the usual confrontational security guards. But there was absolutely no one to be seen. I walked through one of the few entrances not boarded up, and instantly started coughing. In front of me were large empty rooms and discarded furniture, all covered in a thick layer of dust, along with an eerie silence that gave the place a haunted feeling – an emotion not normally associated with a children’s playground.
Once outside again, I came across some farmers who originally owned the land and are now using it to once again to grow their crops. Their tracks and plantations can be seen running through and surrounding the uncompleted buildings. Walking further, I came across a rather farcical sight of some farmers digging a well next to a castle; a moment I will always savor as a photographer in a place like China where castles are not in huge supply. I explained this to the farmers and they just shrugged their shoulders, oblivious to a photographer’s happiness. I asked them what happened, and they simply answered the developers ran out of money, and they are getting back to doing what they do best. They are even slowly starting to plant trees and build shelters near the buildings, adding they think it is now safe to think the developers are never coming back. This I can believe, as the absence of any security (something very rare in China) leads one to think that even the developers have given up on what is already there.
All these structures of rusting steel and decaying cement, are another sad example of property development in China involving wasted money, wasted resources and the uprooting of farmers and their families. It is a reflection of the country’s property market which many analysts say the government must keep tightening steps in place. The worry is a massive increase in inflation and a speculative bubble that might burst, considering that property sales contribute to around 10 percent of China’s growth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crash in Progress, Pollyannas Proven Wrong
China's property bubble is clearly in free-fall. Just as happened in the United States, developers are offering "free" cars, BMW's no less, for those willing to take the plunge.
The numerous Pollyannas who said this would not happen have been proven wrong. China did not "decouple" and home prices cannot stay elevated over wages and rental prices forever.
China’s deserted fake Disneyland
Dec 12, 2011 11:52 EST
By David Gray
Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks – the Great Wall of China – sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it.
Situated on an area of around 100 acres, and 45 minutes drive from the center of Beijing, are the ruins of ‘Wonderland’. Construction stopped more than a decade ago, with developers promoting it as ‘the largest amusement park in Asia’. Funds were withdrawn due to disagreements over property prices with the local government and farmers. So what is left are the skeletal remains of a palace, a castle, and the steel beams of what could have been an indoor playground in the middle of a corn field.
Pulling off the expressway and into the car park, I expected to be stopped by the usual confrontational security guards. But there was absolutely no one to be seen. I walked through one of the few entrances not boarded up, and instantly started coughing. In front of me were large empty rooms and discarded furniture, all covered in a thick layer of dust, along with an eerie silence that gave the place a haunted feeling – an emotion not normally associated with a children’s playground.
Once outside again, I came across some farmers who originally owned the land and are now using it to once again to grow their crops. Their tracks and plantations can be seen running through and surrounding the uncompleted buildings. Walking further, I came across a rather farcical sight of some farmers digging a well next to a castle; a moment I will always savor as a photographer in a place like China where castles are not in huge supply. I explained this to the farmers and they just shrugged their shoulders, oblivious to a photographer’s happiness. I asked them what happened, and they simply answered the developers ran out of money, and they are getting back to doing what they do best. They are even slowly starting to plant trees and build shelters near the buildings, adding they think it is now safe to think the developers are never coming back. This I can believe, as the absence of any security (something very rare in China) leads one to think that even the developers have given up on what is already there.
All these structures of rusting steel and decaying cement, are another sad example of property development in China involving wasted money, wasted resources and the uprooting of farmers and their families. It is a reflection of the country’s property market which many analysts say the government must keep tightening steps in place. The worry is a massive increase in inflation and a speculative bubble that might burst, considering that property sales contribute to around 10 percent of China’s growth.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Crash in Progress, Pollyannas Proven Wrong
China's property bubble is clearly in free-fall. Just as happened in the United States, developers are offering "free" cars, BMW's no less, for those willing to take the plunge.
The numerous Pollyannas who said this would not happen have been proven wrong. China did not "decouple" and home prices cannot stay elevated over wages and rental prices forever.
China's epic hangover begins
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.
The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.
The question is whether the People's Bank can do any better than the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan at deflating a credit bubble.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, almost as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.
contracts as global demand slows
"The BRICs are falling like bricks and the crises are home-blown, caused by their own boom-bust credit cycles. Industrial production is already falling in India, and Brazil will soon follow."
"There is so much spare capacity that they will start dumping goods, risking a deflation shock for the rest of the world. It no surpise that China has just imposed tariffs on imports of GM cars. I think it is highly likely that China will devalue the yuan next year, risking a trade war," he said.
China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite the trade surplus. Hot money is flowing out of the country. "One-way capital inflow or one-way bets on a yuan rise have become history. Our foreign reserves are basically falling every day," said Li Yang, a former central bank rate-setter.
The reserve loss acts as a form of monetary tightening, exactly the opposite of the effect during the boom. The reserves cannot be tapped to prop up China's internal banking system. To do so would mean repatriating the money – now in US Treasuries and European bonds – pushing up the yuan at the worst moment.
The economy is badly out of kilter. Consumption has fallen from 48pc to 36pc of GDP since the late 1990s. Investment has risen to 50pc of GDP. This is off the charts, even by the standards of Japan, Korea or Tawian during their catch-up spurts. Nothing like it has been seen before in modern times.
Fitch Ratings said China is hooked on credit, but deriving ever less punch from each dose. An extra dollar in loans increased GDP by $0.77 in 2007. It is $0.44 in 2011. "The reality is that China's economy today requires significantly more financing to achieve the same level of growth as in the past," said China analyst Charlene Chu.
Ms Chu warned that there had been a "massive build-up in leverage" and fears a "fundamental, structural erosion" in the banking system that differs from past downturns. "For the first time, a large number of Chinese banks are beginning to face cash pressures. The forthcoming wave of asset quality issues has the potential to become uglier than in previous episodes".
Investors had thought China was immune to a property crash because mortgage finance is just 19pc of GDP. Wealthy Chinese often buy two, three or more flats with cash to park money because they cannot invest overseas and bank deposit rates have been minus 3pc in real terms this year.
But with price to income levels reaching nosebleed levels of 18 in East coast cities, it is clear that appartments – often left empty – have themselves become a momentum trade.
Professor Patrick Chovanec from Beijing's Tsinghua School of Economics said China's property downturn began in earnest in August when construction firms reported that unsold inventories had reached $50bn. It has now turned into "a spiral of downward expectations".
A fire-sale is under way in coastal cities, with Shanghai developers slashing prices 25pc in November – much to the fury of earlier buyers, who expect refunds. This is spreading. Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. China Real Estate Index reports that prices dropped by just 0.3pc in the top 100 cities last month, but this looks like a lagging indicator. Meanwhile, the slowdown is creeping into core industries. Steel output has buckled.
Beijing was able to counter the global crunch in 2008-2009 by unleashing credit, acting as a shock absorber for the whole world. It is doubtful that Beijing can pull off this trick a second time.
"If investors go for growth at all costs again they are likely to find that it works even less than before and inflation returns quickly with a vengeance," said Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research.
The International Monetary Fund's Zhu Min says loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years, including off-books lending.
This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth in the five years preceeding Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or the US housing bubble from 2002 to 2007. Each of these booms saw loan growth of near 50 percentage points of GDP.
The IMF said in November that lenders face a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities", warning if hit with multiple shocks, "the banking system could be severely impacted".
Mark Williams from Capital Economics said the great hope was that China would use its credit spree after 2008 to buy time, switching from chronic over-investment to consumer-led growth. "It hasn't work out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how little progress has been made. China may ride out the storm over the next few months, but the dangers of over-capacity and bad debt will only intensify".
In truth, China faces an epic deleveraging hangover, like the rest of us.
===========================================================
'Chinese beleggers halen banken leeg'
SJANGHAI - Chinese beleggers hebben in de eerste 10 dagen van december honderden miljarden yuans van rekeningen bij Chinese banken gehaald.
Ze zouden teleurgesteld zijn dat de koers van de yuan niet stijgt en daarom hun geld wegsluizen.
De banken zagen in totaal 400 miljard yuan (48 miljard euro) weggehaald worden, waarvan de helft van rekeningen van de Bank of China, aldus de krant 21st Century Business Herald vrijdag.
Door de recessie in de eurozone en de moeilijke economische omstandigheden in de Verenigde Staten krijgt de Chinese export het moeilijker. Een duurdere yuan zou die problemen alleen maar versterken, zodat wordt verwacht dat Chinese beleidsmakers willen voorkomen dat de koers van de yuan verder stijgt.
Dollars
De investeerders, die hadden gerekend op een stijgende yuan en deze daarom hadden aangekocht, zien hun gedroomde koerswinsten nu in rook opgaan en ruilen hun yuans daarom massaal in voor dollars.
Deze valuta wordt door de onzekere vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie nu als veilige haven beschouwd.
De opname van de honderden miljarden yuans lijkt invloed te hebben op de kredietverlening in China. Tijdens de eerste 10 dagen van december gaven de vier grootste Chinese banken slechts voor 30 miljard yuan aan leningen. In de gehele maand november werd nog voor ruim 560 miljard yuan aan krediet verleend.
================================================
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.
The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.
The question is whether the People's Bank can do any better than the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan at deflating a credit bubble.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, almost as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.
"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.
contracts as global demand slows
"The BRICs are falling like bricks and the crises are home-blown, caused by their own boom-bust credit cycles. Industrial production is already falling in India, and Brazil will soon follow."
"There is so much spare capacity that they will start dumping goods, risking a deflation shock for the rest of the world. It no surpise that China has just imposed tariffs on imports of GM cars. I think it is highly likely that China will devalue the yuan next year, risking a trade war," he said.
China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite the trade surplus. Hot money is flowing out of the country. "One-way capital inflow or one-way bets on a yuan rise have become history. Our foreign reserves are basically falling every day," said Li Yang, a former central bank rate-setter.
The reserve loss acts as a form of monetary tightening, exactly the opposite of the effect during the boom. The reserves cannot be tapped to prop up China's internal banking system. To do so would mean repatriating the money – now in US Treasuries and European bonds – pushing up the yuan at the worst moment.
The economy is badly out of kilter. Consumption has fallen from 48pc to 36pc of GDP since the late 1990s. Investment has risen to 50pc of GDP. This is off the charts, even by the standards of Japan, Korea or Tawian during their catch-up spurts. Nothing like it has been seen before in modern times.
Fitch Ratings said China is hooked on credit, but deriving ever less punch from each dose. An extra dollar in loans increased GDP by $0.77 in 2007. It is $0.44 in 2011. "The reality is that China's economy today requires significantly more financing to achieve the same level of growth as in the past," said China analyst Charlene Chu.
Ms Chu warned that there had been a "massive build-up in leverage" and fears a "fundamental, structural erosion" in the banking system that differs from past downturns. "For the first time, a large number of Chinese banks are beginning to face cash pressures. The forthcoming wave of asset quality issues has the potential to become uglier than in previous episodes".
Investors had thought China was immune to a property crash because mortgage finance is just 19pc of GDP. Wealthy Chinese often buy two, three or more flats with cash to park money because they cannot invest overseas and bank deposit rates have been minus 3pc in real terms this year.
But with price to income levels reaching nosebleed levels of 18 in East coast cities, it is clear that appartments – often left empty – have themselves become a momentum trade.
Professor Patrick Chovanec from Beijing's Tsinghua School of Economics said China's property downturn began in earnest in August when construction firms reported that unsold inventories had reached $50bn. It has now turned into "a spiral of downward expectations".
A fire-sale is under way in coastal cities, with Shanghai developers slashing prices 25pc in November – much to the fury of earlier buyers, who expect refunds. This is spreading. Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. China Real Estate Index reports that prices dropped by just 0.3pc in the top 100 cities last month, but this looks like a lagging indicator. Meanwhile, the slowdown is creeping into core industries. Steel output has buckled.
Beijing was able to counter the global crunch in 2008-2009 by unleashing credit, acting as a shock absorber for the whole world. It is doubtful that Beijing can pull off this trick a second time.
"If investors go for growth at all costs again they are likely to find that it works even less than before and inflation returns quickly with a vengeance," said Diana Choyleva from Lombard Street Research.
The International Monetary Fund's Zhu Min says loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years, including off-books lending.
This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth in the five years preceeding Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or the US housing bubble from 2002 to 2007. Each of these booms saw loan growth of near 50 percentage points of GDP.
The IMF said in November that lenders face a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities", warning if hit with multiple shocks, "the banking system could be severely impacted".
Mark Williams from Capital Economics said the great hope was that China would use its credit spree after 2008 to buy time, switching from chronic over-investment to consumer-led growth. "It hasn't work out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how little progress has been made. China may ride out the storm over the next few months, but the dangers of over-capacity and bad debt will only intensify".
In truth, China faces an epic deleveraging hangover, like the rest of us.
===========================================================
'Chinese beleggers halen banken leeg'
SJANGHAI - Chinese beleggers hebben in de eerste 10 dagen van december honderden miljarden yuans van rekeningen bij Chinese banken gehaald.
Ze zouden teleurgesteld zijn dat de koers van de yuan niet stijgt en daarom hun geld wegsluizen.
De banken zagen in totaal 400 miljard yuan (48 miljard euro) weggehaald worden, waarvan de helft van rekeningen van de Bank of China, aldus de krant 21st Century Business Herald vrijdag.
Door de recessie in de eurozone en de moeilijke economische omstandigheden in de Verenigde Staten krijgt de Chinese export het moeilijker. Een duurdere yuan zou die problemen alleen maar versterken, zodat wordt verwacht dat Chinese beleidsmakers willen voorkomen dat de koers van de yuan verder stijgt.
Dollars
De investeerders, die hadden gerekend op een stijgende yuan en deze daarom hadden aangekocht, zien hun gedroomde koerswinsten nu in rook opgaan en ruilen hun yuans daarom massaal in voor dollars.
Deze valuta wordt door de onzekere vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie nu als veilige haven beschouwd.
De opname van de honderden miljarden yuans lijkt invloed te hebben op de kredietverlening in China. Tijdens de eerste 10 dagen van december gaven de vier grootste Chinese banken slechts voor 30 miljard yuan aan leningen. In de gehele maand november werd nog voor ruim 560 miljard yuan aan krediet verleend.
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