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Biz professors say worst yet to unfold
Real estate professor James Kau speaks at the panel discussion Wednesday at the University of Georgia Student Learning Center.
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A trio of University of Georgia business professors offered some hope to worried UGA students - if not to their parents - in a panel discussion on the global financial crisis Wednesday.
It may be hard to find a job, and unemployment rates could get as high as 10 percent or 11 percent, panelists said.
But the downturn won't last forever, said economics professor William D. Lastrapes.
"In the long run, things will get better," he said.
The long run can take awhile, said another panelist, real estate professor James Kau.
"Land prices in Chicago didn't get back up to what they were before the Depression until 1970," Kau told more than 400 people in an overflowing classroom at the Miller Student Learning Center on Wednesday.
The economic drama is just beginning, said Chris Cornwell, head of the UGA economics department and moderator of the discussion.
"I think we're only in the first inning," he said.
Kau said the U.S. government's $700 billion bailout plan to help stabilize the economy instead will make the recession worse.
The bailout will balloon and cost taxpayers trillions of dollars, Kau said.
The recession would end more quickly if the government let shaky banks go down, Kau argued.
A bailout of savings and loan banks during the Reagan administration would cost $33 billion, the government said then, but actually cost five times that much, he said.
"The government can't buy their way out of this. I think the government is heading for a very serious problem," Kau said.
But the cost of doing nothing could be very high, Lastrapes argued.
"Nobody has the courage now to do nothing," Lastrapes said. "One of the reasons the Great Depression was so depressing was the inaction of the banking system."
Many observers point to deregulation as a chief culprit in the financial meltdown.
But a better answer would be less regulation, Kau argued.
"I guarantee Wall Street people can write a derivative (a kind of investment) that can get around any regulations," Kau said.
The U.S. government's backing of troubled mortgage companies such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae gave investors a false sense of security as housing prices boomed in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the panelists said. Investors need to know that investments carry a risk, Kau said.
The U.S. simply may be living beyond its means right now, according to Christopher Stivers, a banking and finance professor. The U.S. total debt - what the government owes, what we owe on our credit cards and other kinds of debt all added together - now is 330 percent of the U.S. GDP, or gross domestic product, compared to 170 percent two decades ago, he said.
The scholars' answers did not get to the heart of the economic mess, however, according to semi-retired pharmacist Karen Radde, who got up to speak in a question-and-answer period during the forum.
"Where is accountability? In the whole scheme of things, there has been no accountability," Radde said.
"The lesson you have to learn here is, no one is going to protect you but yourself," Kau said.
"But I've done everything I could do to protect myself, and I had a $10,000 Lehman bond that is no more," Radde said.
"You just got unlucky," Kau said.
Originally published in the Athens Banner-Herald on Thursday, October 09, 2008