Eind november: verwoestende storm?

quote:

Three periods for which Weather Action are 90% confident there will be severe damaging storms:

October 26th to 31st or Nov 1st. Storm gusts of 130 to 160kmh in places. This is likely to be a major storm period but probably only a ‘warm-up’ for what is to come in November. The storm will track East from the British Isles and likely (80% confident) affect Holland, Denmark, South Norway, South Sweden and parts of North Germany.

8th-13th November. Storm/hurricane force gusts of 145 to 175 kmh and tornado type developments. The storm will bring damage to a band of N Europe which is likely to include (80% confident) Bergen, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and possibly St Petersburg.

24th to 28th November. Storm/hurricane gusts of 145 to 210 kmh. This is the 304th anniversary of the devastating tempest of 26th/27th November 1703. Likely track (80% confident) of damage eastwards from the British Isles: Netherlands, Denmark, North Germany, South Sweden and parts of the Baltic countries and Finland.

quote:

24/25-27/28 November

A SUPERSTORM, which affects a larger area than the one of November 10th – 13th,
develops on the day 304 years after the devastating storm of 1703.
An extraordinarily powerful series of troughs, deep low pressures, frontal wave depressions
and sublows including tornadoes and hurricane force winds sweep across the British Isles,
Holland, Denmark, South Sweden and part of Finland or the Baltic countries.
Solar effects: Extra top double extra enhanced frontal activity compared with traditional
meteorology.

quote:

17-20 October
Weather
Dry. Fog and frost during the night.
Confidence level B.
Background
The high pressure over the Atlantic moves North and the one in the East expands westwards.
The low pressures fill out and the wind declines. The front is less active and is blocked out of
Scandianvia and Finland. Quiet solar magnetic activity.

quote:

Our forecast for September published 15.9, contained a warning for a storm 26-31.10, which would bring heavy rain and severe gales causing widespread wind damage. The storm did take place but its path did not touch the Netherlands.

Its main action 27th/28th was confirmed in timing but not in intensity and track. The British Isles saw very wet weather and strong winds, but the highest wind gusts were in the 22-27 m/s range not the 35-45 m/s we had forecast as likely. Severe weather warnings were issued by the MetOffice as events unfolded, thunder with tornado potential warnings on TV, local flooding, ten Environment Agency coastal Flood Watches regarding onshore winds and tides, travel disruption by road & air (runway water). The timing of the main rain was correct to 1 day from 300 days ahead and half a day from 30days ahead. The Weather Action warning of simultaneous extreme rain/storm events around the world was also confirmed by tropical storm enhancement, for instance on Cuba and devastating floods in Mexico, Congo, India and Vietnam. The magnetic developments forecast on the Sun also came on time.