Buitenlandse media over de verkiezingen

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Close race as Dutch polls open

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democrats had a narrow lead as voting began in national elections on Wednesday, but with many voters undecided their Labour rivals could still cause an upset.

Opinion polls show neither Balkenende's centre-right alliance with VVD liberals nor a left-wing combination of Labour, the Socialists and Green Left would win a parliamentary majority, making protracted coalition negotiations likely.

Debate focused largely on welfare reforms Balkenende says have helped the economy, instead of immigration that previously divided the nation. The Christian Democrats (CDA) have rebounded amid accelerating economic growth and falling unemployment.

The last opinion polls by Maurice de Hond and Interview-NSS both gave the CDA a four-seat lead over Labour in the 150-seat parliament, down from about 10 seats a week ago, but still making Balkenende's party the largest in the assembly.

At a busy polling station in chilly weather in eastern Amsterdam, near where Islam critic and filmmaker Theo van Gogh was killed by an Islamist militant in 2004, one voter said he was tired of the immigration debate and wanted the CDA to remain in charge.

"I don't want a left coalition to be in charge," said banker Jan Dirk Zwaag, 35.

De Hond put the CDA on 42 seats, compared with 44 in the last elections in 2003, while Labour would win 38, down from 42.

The pollster said most voters thought the 50-year-old Balkenende had performed best in a live television debate with Labour's Wouter Bos and other party leaders on Tuesday evening.

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Economy set to be magic formula for Dutch premier

He is no longer routinely compared with Harry Potter. But as the Dutch head for the polls in a general election on Wednesday, Jan Peter Balkenende, prime minister, may be about to prove that he has not lost his touch when it comes to feats of wizardry.

As recently as June his Christian Democrat Alliance (CDA) faced a seemingly insurmountable deficit, trailing the PvdA opposition social democrats by 16 seats in one opinion poll. Now polls show Mr Balkenende's party three seats ahead.

The platform for what would prove an extraordinary comeback has been economic recovery. Lured by the promise of prosperity following the most sustained downturn in the Netherlands since the second world war, voters appear poised to give Mr Balkenende yet another chance to build a coalition government – his fourth in less than five years.

Playing up the feelgood factor has been a cornerstone of Mr Balkenende's election campaign. On his last public engagement before polling – a visit to a hospital in Leiden, 20km west of Amsterdam – the premier listened earnestly to staff and patients and dispensed promises of more spending on health. "There is a lot more money coming and we are going to make sure that it is used efficiently and we need you in order to do that," he said.

His campaign boast that the Netherlands has turned a corner economically is supported by data and reports from bodies such as the International Monetary Fund that have praised his policies of wage restraint, curbs on early retirement and welfare and employment reforms.

The government has sought to use this to bolster its claim that life is returning to normal after a tumultuous period scarred by political upheaval and the murders of Pim Fortuyn, the populist politician, in 2002 and film maker Theo van Gogh, stabbed and shot by a radical Islamist two years ago.

On the campaign trail, however, there has been a guarded response. One nurse at the Leiden hospital wondered when her pay packet would reflect politicians' claims about things getting better. Wage moderation by public sector employees was critical to halting spiralling labour costs that threatened to price the Netherlands out of the eurozone market.

"Are things better?" mused Henk Stigter, a surgeon. "Not really. There certainly hasn't been much sign yet of improvements in this sector.

"Balkenende has the bonus of being prime minister with the economy on his side. If the CDA wins it will be because people were willing to believe that the promises will come true."

The focus on the economy has also masked some deeper-seated concerns facing the Netherlands, such as the challenges associated with integration of minorities.

"This is the biggest problem in western Europe but the Netherlands doesn't even want to talk about it," said Martin Bril, a columnist at Volkskrant, a centre-left newspaper. "What does that tell me? That many Dutch people ignore problems if they can."

According to a poll of staff conducted by the Leiden hospital, 25 per cent still had no idea who to vote for, while support from those who had made up their minds was spread evenly across the political spectrum. It is anecdotal evidence like that has sustained the PvdA campaign, and created a neck-and-neck election battle between the two main parties.

At the PvdA's closing rally in Haarlem, a few kilometres north, Wouter Bos, the party leader, restated his message that economic recovery had bypassed many of the less well-off. "Our choice is clear: we want a Netherlands where the differences between the people are smaller," he said.

If the polls prove correct, neither the CDA nor the PvdA will be able to build a majority coalition with their preferred partners. The result could be gridlock and instability.

For Michiel van Hulten, PvdA chairman, this is evidence that the Netherlands "has yet to regain its equilibrium" and that "there is no direction".