Aardbevingen #2

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Op donderdag 12 januari 2006 13:19 schreef UncleScorp het volgende:
oeps ja

Maar mss beeft de aarde toch 'n beetje bij zo'n uitbarsting

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WOLF MOON: Can you hear the howls? According to folklore, this week's bright moon is called the "Wolf Moon," named after the singing packs of wolves once heard by Native Americans amid the deep snows of winter.

On Saturday night, Jan. 14th, the full Wolf Moon will have a lovely companion--Saturn. Step outside at sunset and look for the pair rising in the east: sky map. To the unaided eye, Saturn looks like a bright yellow star just below the moon. Through a telescope--even a small one--you can easily see Saturn's breathtaking rings.

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SETH CARLO CHANDLER, JR., is best remembered for his re-search on the variation of latitude (i.e., the complex wobble of the Earth on its axis of rotation, now referred to as polar motion). His studies of the subject spanned nearly three decades. He published more than twenty-five technical papers characterizing the many facets of the phenomenon, including the two component 14-month (now referred to as the Chandler motion) and annual model most generally accepted today, multiple frequency models, variation of the frequency of the 14-month component, ellipticity of the annual component, and secular motion of the pole.

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This rather large anomaly began in the Earth's Wobble (in so-called Chandler's Wobble) approximately November 1, 2005. The current spiral of polar motion (the track of the changing location of the Spin Axis in its regular 14 month wobble around its average location) has abruptly made a 90 degree "turn" to create a very small or tight "turn" in the spiral of the daily plot of the motion of the Spin Axis. This current spiral turn can be seen in red in the graph above. It began approximately November 1 and is still on-going. This anomalous turn is the smallest spiral which has ever appeared in Chandler's Wobble since reliable plots began to be drawn in 1900. It is currently at least one third of the average size for this phase (MIN PHASE) of the 7 year cycle in Chandler's Wobble..

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The phase and magnitude of Chandler's Wobble is undergoing a profound shift. I suspect this lack of movement is an awesome portent of sudden tectonic changes, judging by the results of the last major anomaly in the movement of the spin axis during 1934-1938.

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If tectonic activity mirrors that period in the coming years, we will see two periods of major increase in tectonic activity One period will be for about 14 months when the spin axis does continue its progression of movement into the next 7 year X WAVE cycle of Chandler's Wobble. This first spiral turn will produce a major increase in volcanic activity, possibly by as much as as 100% over last year or even more. This 14 month spiral turn should also produce a similar increase in general earthquake activity in the Northern Arc of the Pacific Rim of Fire - should be unusually strong in Japan, Alaska, California. This means from now through to the middle of 2007.

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Then for the next some 14-16 years, world earthquake activity 7.0 plus should be double that of the general yearly average. Please note that this doubling of activity 7.0 plus during the next 14 years will be on top of the general trend of increase in earthquake activity in the 3.0 to 7.0 range, which is increasing in the range of 50% per decade. These numbers are uncertain and are not predictions, but they do reveal a range of realistic possibility based on the averages of the past.

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This anomaly will be of significant interest to fans of Edgar Cayce, the famed sleeping prophet. He predicted during the mid 1930's that a new cycle of the shifting of the poles would begin in 2000/2001 and thereafter an increase in the "upheavals" in the Earth. Since this anomaly has appeared in a "cycle" of Chandler's Wobble which began in 2000, just after the completion of the MIN PHASE in 1999, we are now seeing Cayce's prediction fulfilled with remarkable fidelity.

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These numbers are uncertain and are not predictions, but they do reveal a range of realistic possibility based on the averages of the past.

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Time (UTC) Magn (Mb) Depth (km) Region Lat Lon Distance (degrees) Back-azimuth (degrees)
16:58:26 6.9 30.0 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi, Indonesia 1.20 123.90 106.4 66.97
16:58:48 7.7 342.0 Banda Sea -5.50 128.10 114.2 67.51
16:59:15 6.1 30.0 Sulu Archipelago, Philippine Islands 4.80 119.00 100.6 68.87

De voorschok en na schok liggen best ver af van de hoofdbeving. Is dit gebruikelijk?
Waarom wordt er van die bevingen geen melding gemaakt op de eerder genomede links?

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Op zondag 29 januari 2006 13:39 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
Interessant artikel Francorex...
zou de big-california quake dan binnenkort echt gaan komen...

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Op zondag 29 januari 2006 14:10 schreef One_of_the_few het volgende:

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Ach, als je maar leke dag roept er komt er binnenkort 1 dan heb je na verloop van een tijd altijd een keer gelijk.

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Op zondag 29 januari 2006 17:02 schreef francorex het volgende:

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kennelijk heb je het artikel niet gelezen.

Het doet er niet toe, iemand krijgt gelijk of niet,het is niet belangrijk, we zijn hier om te leren.

En, wat een spannende tijd om te leren.

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Op zaterdag 4 februari 2006 13:47 schreef Eveli het volgende:
Ik had dit topic moeten zien vóór mn tentamen over o.a. aardbevingen. Heb m\'n cijfer nog niet terug, maar heb het denk ik wel goed gemaakt aangezien de leerstof niet zo moeilijk/veel was en ik me altijd al voor aardbevingen (en andere rampen) heb geïntresseerd.

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Melted Rock Helps Quakes Shake

By Katherine Unger
ScienceNOW Daily News
3 February 2006

Earthquakes are known for their devastating effects above ground, but some of the most intense action occurs 10 kilometers below. Down there, the sudden lurching of Earth's tectonic plates produces enough friction to melt a slab of rock along the fault. Now, a team of geologists has shown that this melted rock seems to grease faults as they slide past each other, letting quakes really shake their thing.

It's no secret that earthquakes can melt rock: The resulting glassy layer of stone--called pseudotachylyte--rises to the surface when mountains form, allowing geologists a look. Some say that the melt accelerates the quake, just as melting ice under a skater's blade helps her race across a pond. But others believe the melted rock is so thick that it gums up the moving fault, possibly preventing more dangerous earthquakes.

To get to the bottom of things, an international research team, led by geologist Giulio Di Toro of the Università di Padova in Italy studied the process at two locales: in the Italian Alps and in a lab in Japan. The team estimated the amount of friction that occurred during the ancient earthquake by measuring the volume of pseudotachylytes at outcrops. If the liquefied rock had frustrated the quake, there would have been a lot of friction, and therefore heat. That heat would have melted even more rock, producing a large volume of pseudotachylyte. Instead, the researchers found a small volume, consistent with low friction and a slippery melt.

The team bolstered its findings in the lab by using a rotary machine to grind two chunks of rock from the Alpine site together. The low level of friction matched estimates from the field, the team reports today in Science. Di Toro says the findings could help seismologists better understand how the movement of a fault gets propagated from deep underground, because a slipping fault would translate into a more energetic quake than a braking fault.

Structural geologist Richard Sibson of the University of Otago in New Zealand says the combination of lab and field work won him over to the idea of a lubricated fault. "It makes a lot of sense," he says. But Sibson isn't convinced that the conditions Di Toro's team identified in the Alps occur along every fault. He speculates that lubrication might occur during some quakes, but another mechanism might play a role in others. "It raises the issue," he says, "Is there just one type of earthquake?



Melted rocks on mountainsides give clues to how earthquakes get rolling.

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Op zondag 5 februari 2006 13:08 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

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Tis al het tweede topic over Aardbevingen...dus niet goed gekeken?

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Maarre ik had een 7,9 voor mn tentamen.

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The quake struck at 8:08 in the morning and its epicenter was in mountains dividing the regions of Racha and Imereti, about 150 kilometers (93 miles) from the capital.

No serious injuries or deaths have been reported but tremors were felt throughout a wide swath of the country, as far east as Tbilisi and as far west as Kutaisi and Samtredia.

Government seismologists report there were five main tremors over the span of a minute. Georgia's United National Survey for Seismic Protection reported that the cities of Kutaisi, Zestaphoni and Tskhinvali felt the quake at a magnitude of 4.5. In Gori and Borjomi the quake was approximately 4.0 and in Tbilisi it registered 3.5.

Zurab Javakhishvili, the head of the seismology center, told the paper approximately 15 aftershocks followed Monday's earthquake.