olieprijs $50 per vat?

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 06:28 schreef BloodhoundFromHell het volgende:
WE ZITTEN OP DE 50 DOLLAR!!!

Ze hebben dit nieuws zelfs op de FP geplaast!

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 09:17 schreef flyin-hawk het volgende:

ja, ben je nu blij dat hij de 50 dollar heeft gehaald? je had immers 100$ voor US light crude voorspelt. ik zou er niet blij mee zijn.

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 06:31 schreef BloodhoundFromHell het volgende:
Reden is trouwens wat minder vrolijk in Nigeria lijkt een burgeroorlog uit te breken.. Olieproducitie is volledig stilgelegd en alle buitenlanders moeten het land verlaten.

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 11:32 schreef Two_Tribes het volgende:
Leuke ontwikkelingm dit omdat er nog steeds een overaanbod is.

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 11:53 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

[..]

Bron(en) ?

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 11:57 schreef devilish1980 het volgende:
amerika koopt bijv meer olie in dan t nodig heeft voor strategische voorraad...

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 12:14 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

[..]

Bron(en)
Is mij niet bekend, mischien vinden ze het nodig een grotere strategische reserve te hebben in een krapper en onstabieler markt.

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Much of the increased speculation has come from hedge funds, which continued to attract billions of dollars in fresh capital from wealthy investors. Some $38.1 billion flowed into hedge funds in the first quarter of 2004, according to Tremont Capital Management. Of that amount, Tremont's figures show, some $5.5 billion went to "macro" funds, which try to profit from speculating on broad global trends and geopolitical disruptions; another $3.9 billion went into funds specializing in futures. Both types are likely to be betting on oil price movements using options and futures contracts.

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Op dinsdag 28 september 2004 12:14 schreef digitaLL het volgende:

[..]

Bron(en)
Is mij niet bekend, mischien vinden ze het nodig een grotere strategische reserve te hebben in een krapper en onstabieler markt.

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The man who foresaw skyrocketing oil prices
By Adam Porter

Ali Bakhtiari: By end of the year, we will see oil at $50 a barrel
In a world dominated by self-censorship, only the brave speak out. But in a world running on cheap energy, with all the consequences that it brings, only those who value their integrity above their wallet are worth listening to.

Back in April one man, Iranian oil and energy analyst and expert Ali Bakhtiari did just that. He stood up and made a prediction that could have seen him ridiculed.

"By the end of the year we will see oil at $50 a barrel," he told an audience at the annual gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) in Berlin.

To make a prediction that takes in record high prices is one thing. To name the price is another altogether. But now, while OPEC, the major industrial nations and Saudi Arabia chant their mantra that there is "no problem", Bakhtiari seems more vindicated than ever.

"That is what I said in April, that we would get to fifty dollars by the end of the year. And we have arrived three months early," he says with a chuckle. "I think that was really quite a good prediction you know."

Out of control
Trouble is, the rise of oil's price range is an undoubted economic threat. Not to the super rich, the top 1% of global earners, or the super poor, the 50% of the world's people who live on less than $2 a day, but to everyone else. Around three billion of us.

Oil's real value was rather low
until the recent pricing collapse
"I am afraid I think the price will go higher," says Bakhtiari worryingly. "I had hoped it would stay in the $40 range. I think, at that level, economies could start to cope, but now the price of oil is out of anyone's control."

The argument goes that instead of planning a structure for using oil, it has been left to the market fundamentalists to determine the future of these valuable biological assets.

The collapse of oil pricing in the 1990s, as well as the weakness of the dollar, had meant that the real value of oil was incredibly low.

As a result no oil majors or producer nations were interested in spending billions of dollars in new investment, because there was no short-term profit.

Growing appetite

No one was interested in spending billions on fuel efficiency because there was no short-term profit. Why no one was interested in spending billions in solar, wind or hydrogen energy is anybody's guess.

"The big economies are just starting to get used to the idea of $40 a barrel. We have passed that financial and psychological barrier, but if we moved straight into the $50 range, then that is not good at all"

Ali Bakhtiari, Iranian oil and energy expert
The same train of thought says that as well as these factors, oil has been physically guzzled up like there is no tomorrow.

Ironically, it is that very appetite, growing at an exponential rate due to demand in the USA, China and India, that could exacerbate the problem.

Bakhtiari says, "I hope that we don't move into a fifty-dollar range. The big economies, and by that I mean the US, the EU, China, India and Japan, are just starting to get used to the idea of $40 a barrel. We have passed that financial and psychological barrier, but if we moved straight into the $50 range, then that is not good at all."

However, he does not see the forty-, or fifty-dollar, range as something that will last forever. Indeed not even for very long at all. Instead, he says the price is being driven by something far more fundamental.

Peak oil syndrome?
"No one can restrain the price any more. For example, everyone thought that it would be OPEC who could manage demand. But that is now in the past.

Now it is really peak oil that is behind the wheel of the car. Peak oil is driving the rise in price and demand is not the real question. We are entering a new era, but we are only at the very beginning of it."

Repeated attacks on refineries in
Iraq have added to market woes
The idea behind "peak oil" is this. That, as the planet reaches the halfway point of consuming all its available oil, then a combination of bullish demand, slowing fields and insurmountable supply bottlenecks will create brutal price shocks. Almost certainly slicing the head clean off the world economy in the process.

This peak in oil supply will act as an economic guillotine. Yet the thread suspending the blade above our heads will be released without warning.

Politicians, producer countries, major oil companies and consumer states are not about to announce their own demise. It would not be good for business, or re-election, or both.

Unstoppable
Peak production by OPEC nations
has failed to calm the markets

"If there was nothing to be worried about, then there would be no price increases," explains Bakhtiari.

"If there is no reason to worry, because there is plenty of oil and OPEC or Yukos or whoever can simply pump some more, then there would be no problems and no rises in price. The market would not be worried at all."

Whilst Bakhtiari admits predictions are fraught with danger, his own research, so far extremely accurate, says peak oil has yet to arrive. Like Hurricane Ivan blowing in from the ocean, we may only be experiencing the first stormy gusts.

"I think the peak will arrive around 2006, 2007. But, this is only 15 months away. That is all. At that point, no one can say what is going to happen. Except the price is going to go up. And no one will be able to stop it."
http://english.aljazeera.(...)E9D-C17E9D5CEB84.htm

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The idea behind "peak oil" is this. That, as the planet reaches the halfway point of consuming all its available oil, then a combination of bullish demand, slowing fields and insurmountable supply bottlenecks will create brutal price shocks. Almost certainly slicing the head clean off the world economy in the process.

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Op zondag 3 oktober 2004 11:18 schreef BloodhoundFromHell het volgende:
ik zei al 100 dollar per vat is binnen 2 jaar zeker haalbaar.. alle onderliggende voorwaarden voor een ongebreidelde stijging zijn er.

-OPEC kan de productie niet meer opvoeren.
-escalerend geweld in Irak.
-Olieproductie in Nigeria tot een halt gekomen
-enorme toename van de vraag
-Hamsteren van landen als de VS
-Veel meer vraag dan aanbod en de vraag stijgt alleen maar, terwijl het aanbod daalt.

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Op zondag 3 oktober 2004 10:04 schreef BloodhoundFromHell het volgende:

Vreemd genoeg blijft de prijs van LPG redelijk stabiel. Ik betaal hier in België nog steeds 35 cent per liter, dat betaalde ik 3 jaar terug ook, sterker nog, 3 jaar terug betaalde ik meer (in Nederland toen nog) heb zelfs ooit een klaagtopic geopend dat de prijs de 40 cent naderde.

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Vat olie voor het eerst boven 51 dollar

NEW YORK (ANP) - De prijs van een vat ruwe Amerikaanse olie is dinsdag de psychologisch belangrijke grens van 51 dollar gepasseerd. Bij het sluiten van de handel op de termijnmarkt deed een vat van 159 liter 51,09 dollar. Dat is 1,18 dollar meer dan het sloot op maandag.

Handelaren maken zich vooral zorgen over het aanbod van olie. Die staat onder druk van sabotagedreigingen door rebellen in Nigeria en productieproblemen in de Golf van Mexico. Die zijn onstaan door een serie tropische stormen in de regio. Intussen blijft de vraag naar olie hoog, onder andere door het dorstige China.

Verder worden woensdag nieuwe gegevens bekend over de Amerikaanse olievoorraden. Analisten houden rekening met tegenvallende cijfers, wat ook weer zou bijdragen aan een stijging van de prijzen.

In New York doorbrak de olieprijs vorige week voor het eerst de grens van 50 dollar. Analisten zijn erg bezorgd over het huidige prijspeil omdat de mogelijkheden om de olieproductie op te voeren, beperkt zijn. De meeste olie-exporterende landen binnen de OPEC kunnen niet meer olie oppompen dan ze nu al doen.

Nigeria

Maandag kwamen de olietermijnmarkten weer iets op adem nadat in Nigeria rebellen en de regering een bestand waren overeengekomen. Eerder hadden de opstandelingen nog gedreigd met acties tegen buitenlandse oliebedrijven in het Afrikaanse land.

De situatie in Irak blijft gevaarlijk, omdat rebellen daar nog steeds oliepijpleidingen opblazen. In de Golf van Mexico zit de productie nog steeds niet op het normale peil. Door het orkaangeweld zijn olie-installaties daar beschadigd.

De cijfers die woensdag in de VS bekend worden over de voorraden zijn belangrijk met het oog op de winter. In die periode neemt de vraag naar olie sterk toe.

Geactualiseerd om 22.35 uur
SP!TS Actueel, dinsdag 05 oktober 2004, 22:41.
http://spitsnet.nl/anp.php?rid=16&id=341124