[AMV] #1010 Black flutes matter

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 17:59 schreef Harvest89 het volgende:

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In Red Alert 2 had je zo'n weather control device waarmee je een bliksemstorm op een vijandelijke basis kon afsturen. Dus heel vergezocht is het niet.

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 19:18 schreef vipergts het volgende:

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In RA2 hadden de Russen ook goeie spullen dat valt in het echt toch een beetje tegen.

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11.7.1.5 Projections

A summary of studies on TC projections for the late 21st century, particularly studies since AR5, is given by Knutson et al. (2020), which is an assessment report mandated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Studies subsequent to Knutson et al. (2020) are generally consistent, and the confidence assessments here closely follow theirs (Cha et al., 2020), although there are some differences due to the varying confidence calibrations between the IPCC and WMO reports.

There is not an established theory for the drivers of future changes in the frequency of TCs. Most, but not all, high-resolution global simulations project significant reductions in the total number of TCs, with the bulk of the reduction at the weaker end of the intensity spectrum as the climate warms (Knutson et al., 2020). Recent exceptions based on high-resolution coupled model results are noted in Bhatia et al. (2018) and Vecchi et al. (2019). Vecchi et al. (2019) showed that the representation of synoptic-scale seeds for TC genesis in their high-resolution model causes different projections of global TC frequency, and there is evidence for a decrease in cyclone seeds in some projected TC simulations (Sugi et al., 2020; Yamada et al., 2011). However, other research indicates that TC seeds are not an independent control on climatological TC frequency, rather the seeds covary with the large-scale controls on TCs (Patricola et al., 2018). While empirical genesis indices derived from observations and reanalysis describe well the observed subseasonal and interannual variability of current TC frequency (Camargo et al., 2007, 2009; Tippett et al., 2011; Menkes et al., 2012), they fail to predict the decreased TC frequency found in most high-resolution model simulations (Zhang et al., 2010; Camargo, 2013; Wehner et al., 2015), as they generally project an increase as the climate warms. This suggests a limitation of the use of the empirical genesis indices for projections of TC genesis, in particular due to their sensitivity to the humidity variable considered in the genesis index for these projections (Camargo et al., 2014). In a different approach, a statistical–dynamical downscaling framework assuming a constant seeding rate with warming (Emanuel, 2013, 2021) exhibits increases in TC frequency consistent with genesis indices-based projections, while downscaling with a different model leads to two different scenarios depending on the humidity variable considered (C.-Y. Lee et al., 2020). This disparity in the sign of the projected change in global TC frequency, and the difficulty in explaining the mechanisms behind the different signed responses, further emphasize the lack of process understanding of future changes in tropical cyclogenesis (Walsh et al., 2015; Hoogewind et al., 2020). Even within a single model, uncertainty in the pattern of future SST changes leads to large uncertainties (including the sign) in the projected change in TC frequency in individual ocean basins, although global TCs would appear to be less sensitive (Yoshida et al., 2017; Bacmeister et al., 2018).

Changes in SST and atmospheric temperature and moisture play a role in tropical cyclogenesis (Walsh et al., 2015). Reductions in vertical convective mass flux due to increased tropical stability have been associated with a reduction in cyclogenesis (Held and Zhao, 2011; Sugi et al., 2012). Satoh et al. (2015) further posit that the robust simulated increase in the number of intense TCs, and hence increased vertical mass flux associated with intense TCs, must lead to a decrease in overall TC frequency because of this association. The Genesis Potential Index can be modified to mimic the TC frequency decreases of a model by altering the treatment of humidity (Camargo et al., 2014). This supports the idea that increased mid-tropospheric saturation deficit (Emanuel et al., 2008) controls TC frequency, but the approach remains empirical. Other possible controlling factors, such as a decline in the number of seeds (held constant in Emanuel’s downscaling approach, or dependent on the genesis index formulation in the approach proposed by C.-Y. Lee et al., 2020) caused by increased atmospheric stability have been proposed, but questioned as an important factor (Patricola et al., 2018). The resolution of atmospheric models affects the number of seeds, hence TC genesis frequency (Vecchi et al., 2019; Sugi et al., 2020; Yamada et al., 2021). The diverse and sometimes inconsistent projected changes in global TC frequency by high-resolution models indicate that better process understanding and improvement of the models are needed to raise confidence in these changes.

Most TC-permitting model simulations (10–60 km or finer grid spacing) are consistent in their projection of increases in the proportion of intense TCs (Category 4–5), as well as an increase in the intensity of the strongest TCs defined by maximum wind speed or central pressure fall (Murakami et al., 2012; Tsuboki et al., 2015; Wehner et al., 2018a; Knutson et al., 2020). The general reduction in the total number of TCs, which is concentrated in storms weaker than or equal to Category 1, contributes to this increase. The models are somewhat less consistent in projecting an increase in the frequency of Category 4–5 TCs (Wehner et al., 2018a; Knutson et al., 2020). The projected increase in the intensity of the strongest TCs is consistent with theoretical understanding (e.g., Emanuel, 1987) and observations (e.g., Kossin et al., 2020). For a 2°C global warming, the median proportion of Category 4–5 TCs increases by 13%, while the median global TC frequency decreases by 14%, which implies that the median of the global Category 4–5 TC frequency is slightly reduced by 1% or almost unchanged (Knutson et al., 2020). Murakami et al. (2020) projected a decrease in TC frequency over the coming century in the North Atlantic due to greenhouse warming, as consistent with Dunstone et al. (2013), and a reduction in TC frequency almost everywhere in the tropics in response to +1% CO2 forcing. Exceptions include the central North Pacific (Hawaii region), east of the Philippines in the North Pacific, and two relatively small regions in the northern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. These projections can vary substantially between ocean basins, possibly due to differences in regional SST warming and warming patterns (Sugi et al., 2017; Yoshida et al., 2017; Bacmeister et al., 2018). A summary of projections of TC characteristics is schematically shown by Figure 11.20.

The increase in global TC maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% for a 2°C global warming across a number of high-resolution multidecadal studies (Knutson et al., 2020). This indicates the deepening in global TC minimum surface pressure under the global warming conditions. A regional cloud-permitting model study shows that the strongest TC in the western North Pacific can be as strong as 857 hPa in minimum surface pressure with a wind speed of 88 m s–1 under warming conditions in 2074–2087 (Tsuboki et al., 2015). TCs are also measured by quantities such as ACE and the power dissipation index (PDI), which conflate TC intensity, frequency, and duration (Murakami et al., 2014). Several TC modelling studies (Yamada et al., 2010; H.S. Kim et al., 2014; Knutson et al., 2015) project little change or decreases in the globally accumulated value of PDI or ACE, which is due to the decrease in the total number of TCs.

A projected increase in global average TC rain rates of about 12% for a 2°C global warming is consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of saturation-specific humidity (Knutson et al., 2020). Increases substantially greater than Clausius–Clapeyron scaling are projected in some regions, which is caused by increased low-level moisture convergence due to projected TC intensity increases in those regions (Knutson et al., 2015; Phibbs and Toumi, 2016; Patricola and Wehner, 2018; M. Liu et al., 2019a). Projections of TC precipitation using large-ensemble experiments (Kitoh and Endo, 2019) show that the annual maximum one-day precipitation total is projected to increase, except for the western North Pacific where only a small change (or even a reduction) is projected, mainly due to a projected decrease of TC frequency. They also show that the 10-year return value of extreme Rx1day associated with TCs will greatly increase in a region extending from Hawaii to the south of Japan. TC tracks and the location of topography relative to TCs significantly affect precipitation, thus, in general, areas on the eastern and southern faces of mountains have more impacts of TC precipitation changes (Hatsuzuka et al., 2020). Projection studies using variable-resolution models in the North Atlantic (Stansfield et al., 2020) indicate that TCrelated precipitation rates within North Atlantic TCs and the amount of hourly precipitation due to TC are projected to increase by the end of the century compared to a historical simulation. However, the annual average TC-related Rx5day over the eastern USA is projected to decrease because of a reduction in landfalling TCs. RCM studies with around 25–50 km grid spacing are used to study projected changes in TCs. The projected changes of TCs in South East Asia simulated by RCMs are consistent with those of most GCMs, showing a decrease in TC frequency and an increase in the amount of TCassociated precipitation or an increase in the frequency of intense TCs (Redmond et al., 2015; Gallo et al., 2019).

Projected changes in TC tracks or TC areas of occurrence in the late 21st century vary considerably among available studies, although there is better agreement in the western North Pacific. Several studies project either poleward or eastward expansion of TC occurrence over the western North Pacific region, and more TC occurrence in the central North Pacific (Yamada et al., 2017;Yoshida et al., 2017; Wehner et al., 2018a; Roberts et al., 2020b). The observed poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific is consistently reproduced by the CMIP5 models and downscaled models, and these models show further poleward expansion in the future; the projected mean migration rate of the mean latitude where TCs reach their lifetimemaximum intensity is 0.2±0.1° from CMIP5 model results, while it is 0.13±0.04° from downscaled models in the western North Pacific (Kossin et al., 2014, 2016a). In the North Atlantic, while the location of TC maximum intensity does not show clear poleward migration observationally (Kossin et al., 2014), it tends to migrate poleward in projections (Garner et al., 2017). The poleward migration is less robust among models and observations in the Indian Ocean, eastern North Pacific, and South Pacific (e.g., Tauvale and Tsuboki, 2019; Ramsay et al. 2018; Cattiaux et al. 2020). There is presently no clear consensus in projected changes in TC translation speed (Knutson et al., 2020), although recent studies suggest a slowdown outside of the tropics (Kossin, 2019; Yamaguchi et al., 2020; G. Zhang et al., 2020), but regionally there can even be an acceleration of the storms (Hassanzadeh et al., 2020).

The spatial extent, or ‘size’, of the TC wind field is an important determinant of storm surge and damage. No detectable anthropogenic influences on TC size have been identified to date, because TCs in observations vary in size substantially (Chan and Chan, 2015) and there is no definite theory on what controls TC size, although this is an area of active research (Chavas and Emanuel, 2014; Chan and Chan, 2018). However, projections by high-resolution models indicate future broadening of TC wind fields when compared to TCs of the same categories (Yamada et al., 2017), while Knutson et al. (2015) simulate a reasonable interbasin distribution of TC size climatology, but project no statistically significant change in global average TC size. A plausible mechanism is that, as the tropopause height becomes higher with global warming, the eye wall areas become wider because the eye walls are inclined outward with height to the tropopause. This effect is only reproduced in highresolution convection-permitting models capturing eye walls, and such modelling studies are not common. Moreover, the projected TC size changes are generally on the order of 10% or less, and these size changes are still highly variable between basins and studies. Thus, the projected change in both magnitude and sign of TC size is uncertain.

The coastal effects of TCs depend on TC intensity, size, track, and translation speed. Projected increases in sea level, average TC intensity, and TC rainfall rates each generally act to further elevate future storm surge and fresh-water flooding (see Section 9.6.4.2). Changes in TC frequency could contribute toward increasing or decreasing future storm surge risk, depending on the net effects of changes in weaker vs stronger storms. Several studies (McInnes et al., 2014, 2016; Little et al., 2015; Garner et al., 2017; Timmermans et al., 2017, 2018) have explored future projections of storm surge in the context of anthropogenic climate change with the influence of both sea level rise and future TC changes. Garner et al. (2017) investigated the near-future changes in the New York City coastal flood hazard, and suggested a small change in storm-surge height because effects of TC intensification are compensated by the offshore shifts in TC tracks, but concluded that the overall effect due to the rising sea levels would increase the flood hazard. Future projection studies of storm surge in East Asia, including China, Japan and Korea, also indicate that storm surges due to TCs become more severe (J.A. Yang et al., 2018; Mori et al., 2019, 2021; J. Chen et al., 2020b). For the Pacific Islands, McInnes et al. (2014) found that the future projected increase in storm surge in Fiji is dominated by sea level rise, and projected TC changes make only a minor contribution. Among various storm surge factors, there is high confidence that sea level rise will lead to a higher possibility of extreme coastal water levels in most regions, with all other factors assumed equal.

In the North Atlantic, vertical wind shear, which inhibits TC genesis and intensification, varies in a quasi-dipole pattern, with one centre of action in the tropics and another along the south-east USA coast (Vimont and Kossin, 2007). This pattern of variability creates a protective barrier of high shear along the USA coast during periods of heightened TC activity in the tropics (Kossin, 2017), and appears to be a natural part of the Atlantic ocean–atmosphere climate system (Ting et al., 2019). Greenhouse gas forcing in CMIP5 and the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (Kay et al., 2015) simulations, however, erodes the pattern and degrades the natural shear barrier along the USA coast. Following the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the magnitude of the erosion of the barrier equals the amplitude of past natural variability (time of emergence) by the mid-21st century (Ting et al., 2019). The projected reduction of shear along the USA East Coast with warming is consistent among studies (e.g., Vecchi and Soden, 2007).

In summary, average peak TC wind speeds and the proportion of Category 4–5 TCs will very likely increase globally with warming. It is likely that the frequency of Category 4–5 TCs will increase in limited regions over the western North Pacific. It is very likely that average TC rain rates will increase with warming, and likely that the peak rain rates will increase at rate greater than the Clausius– Clapeyron scaling rate of 7% per 1°C of warming in some regions due to increased low-level moisture convergence caused by regional increases in TC wind intensity. It is likely that the average location where TCs reach their peak wind intensity will migrate poleward in the western North Pacific Ocean as the tropics expand with warming, and that the global frequency of TCs over all categories will decrease or remain unchanged.

https://www.ipcc.ch/repor(...)R6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 20:28 schreef SnertMetChoco het volgende:
Het is uiteraard nooit een samenzwering, want de gedachte is niet dat er wat lui afspreken om orkanen te verergeren ofzo.

Misschien interessanter om te zien wat een hele groep wetenschappers erover zeggen met bronvermeldingen erbij middels het IPCC, in plaats van 1 wetenschapper en 1 opiniemaker (die ook niet "de Democraten" is).
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Om maar te zeggen, het ligt veel genuanceerder dan veel mensen denken.

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 23:44 schreef speknek het volgende:
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Dank Brandon sloopt het gevangenis-industriële complex. Dit zijn tienduizenden die hun leven terug gaan krijgen.

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 23:44 schreef speknek het volgende:
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Dank Brandon sloopt het gevangenis-industriële complex. Dit zijn tienduizenden die hun leven terug gaan krijgen.

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Op donderdag 6 oktober 2022 23:49 schreef Ulx het volgende:
Trump postte 17 berichten in een uur waarin hij de FBI afzeek. Morgen zullen we wel horen waarom. Misschien zijn er targetbrieven gearriveerd bij mensen in zijn omgeving.

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 00:19 schreef SnertMetChoco het volgende:

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[ twitter ]
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Holy shit, politieke moed hierin, wat verfrissend en wat geweldig dat vele duizenden non-criminelen hun leven terug zullen krijgen.

_{Kijk @:HowardRoark, dit gaat over "maximale vrijheid".}

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 02:14 schreef Ulx het volgende:
Aha. Hence the rant.

[ twitter ]

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 02:44 schreef Kijkertje het volgende:
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De hypocrisie

The Hooters - Satellite (Video)

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 09:19 schreef AnneX het volgende:
Het was weer een bevredigende teruglees.
Behalve Biden’s terechte actie weinig actie. Flauw misschien: is het een democratische stemmen trekker?

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 09:19 schreef AnneX het volgende:
Het was weer een bevredigende teruglees.
Behalve Biden’s terechte actie weinig actie. Flauw misschien: is het een democratische stemmen trekker?

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 10:03 schreef SnertMetChoco het volgende:

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In een Gallup poll van november 2021 was 68% van de Amerikanen voor legalisatie: https://news.gallup.com/p(...)lds-record-high.aspx

In een Pew poll van maart 2021 was 60% van de Amerikanen voor legalisatie en nog een flink deel meer legaal voor medisch gebruik: https://www.pewresearch.o(...)onal-or-medical-use/

Denk dat het wel veilig is om te stellen dat dit een populaire zaak is.

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 10:38 schreef MoreDakka het volgende:

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Het probleem is dat het Amerikaanse volk de leugen verkocht is dat wiet ongevaarlijk is en zelfs medische applicaties heeft.

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 10:45 schreef Sabata het volgende:

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dat is geen leugen. medicinale wiet met lage concentraties THC werd vroeger door een oom van me gebruikt en twee leraren die ik heb gehad. allemaal zwaar Rheumapatient en ze konden doordat de pijn verdoofde normaal functioneren. helaas heeft ongereguleerd recreatief gebruik ertoe geleid dat er steeds meer THC in wordt gestopt omdat men meer kick wil hebben in hun joint. en dat blijkt wel gevaarlijk.

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Op vrijdag 7 oktober 2022 10:49 schreef Monolith het volgende:

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medicinaal gebruik betekent ook helemaal niet 'ongevaarlijk'. Lees de gemiddelde bijsluiter voor de aardigheid eens.