https://qr.ae/pvoxKIWhy don't we hear any more media news about how Zelensky and Ukraine are winning the war against Russia?Well, on one hand, Zelensky and Ukraine already won the war against Russia. The plan was for a quick decapitating strike and the whole of Ukraine would be subjugated within a week or so. On the other hand, the war right now is in an incredibly messy phase.
Right now the war most closely resembles Western Front in 1916. There is a general stalemate, but one side (Imperial Germany or Russia) is pressing forward against a part of the defensive line heavily held by the defender. Both Germany and Russia had a clear advantage in artillery and this inflicted major casualties upon the defenders. Yet the defender is not without response and the result is a messy grind of two forces upon one another, the side with the most flesh for the ginder will win in the end.
There will be no stunning reversals, no glorious breakouts at Siviernodonetsk, just like there wasn’t any at Verdun. For Ukraine to win it must inflict enough casualties on Russia so they will no longer be willing or able to press the attack. However a Russian victory secures next to nothing, they can just proceed to the next target - the fortress-cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, where their job may be even more difficult.
Ukraine picked the battlefield well, they drew Russian forces to a place where their advantages count for little and engaged them in a war of attrition. There is no glory in that, nothing of significance to report, though acts of enormous heroism happen every day.
Russian propagandists and trolls would have you believe Russia is actually winning the war. In reality Russia is slowly winning a preparatory battle for the next siege fifty kilometers to the east. But since Russia is advancing, it is also difficult to report this as a win for Ukraine, although in strategic sense it may well be. Ukraine now needs time to rearm. Western weapons are flowing in Ukraine, in small numbers yes but they’re coming. Once Ukraine manages to replace enough of their arsenal with western models, ammunition shortages will no longer be an issue.
To give you some indication what’s coming in and how relevanat it is, a single Panzerhaubitze 2000 is worth approximately 12 Russian artillery pieces in raw firepower, but it also outranges them and is more accurate. Those 12 vehicles Ukraine got this week, if properly used, are about as effective as about 100–120 Russian guns. There are hundreds more Panzerhaubitzes 2000 Ukraine could get, certainly enough to potentially neutralize the advantage Russians have in artillery. Furthermore, in the coming weeks and months Russia will face increasing problems with retention of their soldiers. Few men sign up for the grinder and most soldiers serve on a 2 year contract, with a maximum deployment period abroad of 90 days. They will want to go home soon and there’s little Russia can do to stop them.
Ukraine is on track to win this war, but right now it doesn’t seem that way.
================================
.......'most soldiers serve a 2 year contract with max. deployment... little Russia can do to stop them.... Putin has shown little inclination to obey laws and I am sure if he wanted to, he would just make it illegal for them to 'resign'.
================================
That's not the issue, their contracts expire. You don't "resign", you just don't renew the contract.
Russia does have a tool to end that of course: declare the “Special military operation” in Ukraine is, in fact, a war. Any army anywhere can retain any soldier beyond their contract if there is a war, it says so in the fine print even. They refused to do so thus far, which indicates to me they actually can’t. Not legally or anything, Putin can order that on a whim and the Duma will rubber stamp it, that’s not an issue.
The issue is how will the Russian hoi-poloi react to the decision and general mobilization. The Kremlin has apparently concluded they cannot survive such a decision, probably because it would lead to a revolution within Russia.
That’s why the solution to Putin’s problem just isn’t there. They’re offering huge bonuses to ethnic minorities and are pressing conscripts from Donetsk and Lugansk in as cannon fodder. Russia is also gutting training battalions and sending them to the front line. In the short term, for the duration of the summer perhaps, this can work.
After that Russia may well need a whole lot more than 8 years to rearm, no matter what happens. If you send drill sergants to fight and have lots of them killed it takes quite a while to obtain a new cadre of adequate ability.