quote:

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial
motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated
to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system
quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is
significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The
ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with
Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K.
Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in
the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.