Als CNN weer toegang krijgt tot het WH en de Democraten zijn ideeŽn gaan blokkeren zal hij wel binnen no time een hart aanval krijgenquote:
Politicoquote:The looming threat to Trump's booming economy
A sugar high — from tax cuts and other stimulus — is expected to wear off in the coming year, constricting economic growth.
President Donald Trump, already in a grumpy post-midterm mood, faces a growing list of economic problems that could irritate him even more next year. Chief among them is a withdrawal from the economy’s sugar high.
Fiscal stimulus from the GOP tax cuts is likely to start running out. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep bumping up interest rates. And few analysts expect a divided Congress — facing soaring deficits and with its eyes on 2020 — to join hands and pass a big infrastructure package or sweeping middle-class tax cuts to keep the fiscal juice flowing.
The collection of all these factors, coupled with jittery investors already worried about trade wars and a global slowdown, could deny Trump the kind of big economic growth numbers he loves to celebrate. And they could undercut one of the GOP’s biggest current arguments: You may not love what Trump says or does, but the Trump economy is awesome.
“The first punch will be the lag effect of rising interest rates. Rates work slowly, but they do work eventually,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “And the second will be that by 2020, without a further package from Congress, the stimulus will be done. You put all these together and it’s a little like Wile E. Coyote running over the cliff. You look down, and the ground you thought was under you suddenly isn’t there anymore.”
The White House is well aware of the risks. Senior administration officials believe the big corporate tax cut will unleash a wave of sustainable growth in business spending that will keep the good numbers rolling — from job gains to higher wages — and keep producing GDP reports in the 3 percent territory that Trump loves, rather than the 2s or 1s that many economists expect.
But a prolonged business spending boom is no certainty, and some signals — including the third-quarter GDP report — suggest that capital investment is already slowing. So the White House is deeply engaged in efforts to boost growth through executive action, especially in the energy sector, by speeding the permitting process for natural gas pipelines and boosting the American shipping industry.
White House officials are not counting on a big infrastructure package or a deal on the kind of middle-class tax cut Trump promised at the end of the campaign.
“We’ve been noodling more on this middle-class tax cut, how to structure it, and even pay for it,” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said in a recent interview in his West Wing office. “I don’t think the chances of that are very high, because the Democrats are going to go after the corporate tax and all that stuff.”
Kudlow also was not enthusiastic about agreement between the White House and Democrats, who will control the House of Representatives, on a deal in 2019 to spend significant federal money on infrastructure projects. “Anybody that thinks, you know, like this trillion-dollar [infrastructure spending] number, which is over 10 years — we don’t have that,” Kudlow said.
Kudlow said he still believed a “boom” in capital spending will continue in 2019 and 2020 and that he didn’t worry about numbers like the recent GDP report showing capital spending nearly stalling out at 0.8 percent growth in the third quarter.
But while Trump’s advisers remain bullish, many economists are now trimming their estimates for U.S. growth next year in part because of a reduction in the impact of the tax cuts and spending increases — more than $2 trillion worth — approved by Congress and signed by the president last year.
“I expect fiscal policy will still be stimulative in 2019, but not as stimulative as in 2018,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “In round numbers, fiscal stimulus is adding maybe three-quarters of a point to GDP growth in 2018, will add maybe half as much again in 2019 and be close to neutral in 2020.”
Deutsche Bank estimates that fiscal policy will remain mildly positive in 2019 but turn into a drag of about 0.3 percent on the economy by 2020. “You should expect GDP growth to slow as we get into the second half of 2019 and in particular in 2020,” said Torsten Slok, Deutsche’s chief international economist.
The decline in fiscal stimulus will come as the Fed, much to Trump’s displeasure, is likely to keep raising interest rates in 2019. The Fed is expected to hike rates again next month and several more times next year.
The central bank’s main goal is to slow economic growth enough to prevent a surge in inflation as the labor market gets tighter. The Fed could pause its interest-rate hikes if the decline in fiscal stimulus from Congress kills economic growth entirely. But by the time it does so, the unemployment rate could be rising again.
“I’d be quite surprised if unemployment is still falling by 2020, so Trump is very likely to be running against a backdrop of rising unemployment,” said Shepherdson. He added that it is unlikely that the Fed could “magically manage to stabilize everything and freeze it where it is now and make everyone happy forever more.”
Ordinarily in such a scenario, Congress might step in and take stimulative measures to ensure that any slowdown is short-lived through higher spending and tax reductions. But a combination of political and fiscal factors makes this difficult, if not impossible.
On the political side, Democrats have limited incentive to cut a deal with Trump on an infrastructure spending package. And Republicans in Congress are growing increasingly alarmed by the ballooning size of the federal budget deficit, which hit $779 billion in 2018 and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2019. So when the Fed is tightening, Congress may be unable to push the other way.
"We poured a bunch of stimulus into the economy at precisely the time it didn’t need it, and we are going to have to pay the price for that in the coming years,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “When the economy turns down, and by all accounts it will, we are likely to need to continue further stimulus. But because we are at such a higher debt position relative to normal, it’s going to be harder to borrow and do that.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Wednesday flatly rejected the idea of doing a big infrastructure deal with Democrats. “Republicans are not interested in a $900 billion stimulus,” he told reporters.
Instead of debates about further stimulus, Congress could wind up stuck in bitter fights over funding the government and raising the debt limit. That could start next month if Trump demands more funding for his border wall as a part of a year-end bill to avoid a partial government shutdown on Dec. 8. The debt limit goes back into force in March, though Congress will likely have until summer to raise it before flirting with default.
Concern over waning stimulus and rising rates has some of Trump's advisers, including Kudlow, scrambling to avoid a round of auto tariffs on Europe and a trade war with China next year. Those concerns helped turn October into the worst month for the stock market since 2011.
All the potential economic headwinds have Kudlow and other White House advisers banking hard on the idea that businesses will plow their tax-cut money into new spending in 2019 and beyond. “This economic boom is great. I personally believe it’s going to continue for quite some time,” Kudlow said. “If we don’t get the capital expenditures, I’ll be wrong. But I think we will.”
quote:It took Donald Trump until the 286th day of his presidency to make 815 false claims.
He just made another 815 false claims in a month.
Die was gisteren al, en die heeft Poliquin verloren. Nergens in de grondwet staat dat ranked choice voting niet zou mogen. Poliquin heeft nog andere rechtszaken lopen maar die lijken na vandaag kansloos.quote:
https://thehill.com/polic(...)gulen-from-us-reportquote:White House eyeing ways to remove Erdogan foe Gulen from US: report
The Trump administration is considering ways to remove an enemy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the United States to appease Turkey over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, according to a report by NBC News.
Two senior U.S. officials and two other people briefed on the requests told NBC that administration officials last month asked federal law enforcement agencies — including the Justice Department and FBI — to look at legal ways to remove exiled Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen.
The move would be an attempt to prompt Erdogan to take pressure off the Saudi government.
The White House reportedly sent directives to the Justice Department and FBI to reopen Turkey's case for Gulen’s extradition. The administration officials have also requested the Homeland Security Department provide information about his legal status.
The four people said that the White House wanted details about Gulen's residency status in the country. Gulen has a green card and has been living in Pennsylvania since the late 1990s, NBC reported.
U.S. officials and people briefed on the requests said career officials at the agencies pushed back at the White House requests.
“At first there were eye rolls, but once they realized it was a serious request, the career guys were furious,” a senior U.S. official involved in the process told NBC.
Gaat hem toch nooit lukken. Of hij moet het illegaal doenquote:Op donderdag 15 november 2018 20:25 schreef crystal_meth het volgende:
quote:Today, Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, sent a letter to acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker and FBI Director Christopher Wray notifying them of his expectation, when Democrats take the Majority in the new year, that the Department of Justice and the FBI will have already addressed the backlog of unanswered requests that have been made concerning legitimate oversight matters under the Committee’s jurisdiction. Over the last two years, House Judiciary Committee Democrats have written over one hundred letters to the Administration. Twenty-two of those letters relate to improper communications from the White House to the Department of Justice and the FBI and President Trump’s repeated attacks on federal law enforcement agencies. To date, the Administration has not responded to any of these requests. The letter sent by Ranking Member Nadler notifies acting A.G. Whitaker and Director Wray that the Committee intends to follow-up on these requests, and expects their full cooperation as the Committee sets about conducting regular oversight on matters that have long been ignored.
The full text of the letter can be found below and here:SPOILER“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
Wanneer begint de rant van Trump?quote:
Een Democratisch gouverneursschap en een Democratische senaatszetel in Florida zou die toch wel tot een heel erg pijnlijke verkiezing voor de GOP maken.quote:
quote:U.S. senators seek clampdown on Saudis over Yemen, journalist's murder
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican and Democratic U.S. senators introduced legislation on Thursday seeking to strike back at Saudi Arabia over the death of a Saudi journalist at a consulate in Turkey and for its role in Yemen’s devastating civil war.
If it were to become law, the bill would suspend weapon sales to Saudi Arabia and prohibit U.S. refueling of Saudi coalition aircraft for Riyadh’s campaign in Yemen against the Houthis, Shi’ite Muslim fighters that Yemen’s neighbors view as agents of Iran, the lawmakers said.
It also would impose sanctions on anyone blocking humanitarian access in Yemen and anyone supporting the Houthis in Yemen.
Sponsored by three Republican and three Democratic senators, the legislation reflects continued dissatisfaction in the U.S. Congress over the Yemen war, which has killed more than 10,000 people and created the world’s most urgent humanitarian crisis.
That frustration was exacerbated by the killing in October at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a U.S. resident who wrote for the Washington Post.
Senator Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said sanctions on 17 Saudis announced earlier on Thursday by President Donald Trump’s administration were not enough to ensure a credible investigation of Khashoggi’s death and an end to hostilities in Yemen.
“We are putting teeth behind these demands with regular oversight, sanctions and suspension of weapons sales and refueling support,” he said in a statement.
“This legislation is an important way to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for various acts in Yemen as well as the death of Jamal Khashoggi,” said Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, another sponsor.
The bill’s other sponsors include Republican Senators Todd Young and Susan Collins and Democrats Jack Reed and Jeanne Shaheen.
En Florida is roodtwitter:
Fake news. Dat betekent dat daarvoor de vorige stand telt en het gevolg is een handmatige hertelling. http://amp.miamiherald.co(...)rticle221709445.htmlquote:
twitter:ZoeTillman twitterde op vrijdag 16-11-2018 om 02:42:21 Lawyers for Paul Manafort and Mueller's office filed a joint request tonight to extend the deadline to update the judge in DC about the status of things — report is currently due tomorrow. They've asked to file 11/26, saying they'll be able to give info "of greater assistance" https://t.co/vVV4qL9WXh reageer retweet
Julian Assange has been charged, prosecutors reveal inadvertently in court filingtwitter:
quote:WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been charged under seal, prosecutors inadvertently revealed in a recently unsealed court filing -- a development that could significantly advance the probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election and have major implications for those who publish government secrets.
The disclosure came in a filing in a case unrelated to Assange. Assistant U.S. Attorney Kellen S. Dwyer, urging a judge to keep the matter sealed, wrote that "due to the sophistication of the defendant and the publicity surrounding the case, no other procedure is likely to keep confidential the fact that Assange has been charged." Later, Dwyer wrote the charges would "need to remain sealed until Assange is arrested."
Dwyer is also assigned to the WikiLeaks case. People familiar with the matter said what Dwyer was disclosing was true, but unintentional.
Joshua Stueve, a spokesman for the U.S. attorney's office in the Eastern District of Virginia said, "The court filing was made in error. That was not the intended name for this filing."
An FBI spokeswoman declined to comment.SPOILER
[ Bericht 26% gewijzigd door Kijkertje op 16-11-2018 05:54:48 ]“The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”— Bertrand Russell
quote:In some ways, the friendliest Donald Trump interviews are the most revealing. Given the opportunity to ramble and free-associate without any pushback whatsoever, you can see what channels his mind naturally follows.
His latest interview with the Daily Caller shows a president who’s fundamentally out to sea. The sycophantic interviewers can’t get Trump to answer a policy question of any kind, no matter how much of a softball they lob at him. The only subjects he is actually interested in talking about are his deranged belief in his incredible popularity and how that popularity is not reflected in actual vote totals because he’s the victim of a vast voter fraud conspiracy.
It’s the kind of thing that would be a bit sad if it were just your elderly uncle ranting about his past glories, but Trump mixes it in with authoritarian asides and the fundamental reality that whether he cares to do the actual job or not, he is ultimately the president of the United States.
dit is de transcript van hetzelfde interview.quote:Op vrijdag 16 november 2018 04:46 schreef Lord-Ronddraai het volgende:
Ik vond dit artikel over het laatste interview met Trump wel aardig
quote:Op vrijdag 16 november 2018 04:46 schreef Lord-Ronddraai het volgende:
Ik vond dit artikel over het laatste interview met Trump wel aardig
Dan ben je 72 jaar en niet in staat om je beleidswensen te formuleren. Natuurlijk mag dat geen verrassing heten - het is immers algemeen bekend dat Trump de inhoudelijke politieke kennis heeft van een bedorven mandarijn - maar toch blijft het stuitend. Bovendien zou het zorgwekkend moeten zijn voor zijn achterban, want het ontbreekt Trump aan de knowhow om zelf afgewogen keuzes te maken. Maar goed, dit is een bekend verhaal.quote:THE DAILY CALLER: Sir, right now, in 2010 we saw several pieces of major legislation passed in a lame-duck Congress. What can we expect your and the Republican agenda to be in this Congress? Is it going to be an immigration fix? What about criminal justice reform? What are the two to three things you’re looking at?
TRUMP: We’re working on many things. Criminal justice reform we’re working on very hard. We have a meeting today, did you know about that? We have a meeting today.
THE DAILY CALLER: We heard about that.
TRUMP: Get these two in, all right? I think we have a chance at that. We should be able to fix health care. We should be able —
THE DAILY CALLER: Just one second, sir, on that criminal justice bill. Is that the Jared Kushner-backed bill that you want to focus on?
TRUMP: The answer is I’m looking at it very closely, okay? I am. It’s a good thing. You know, Texas is backing it, if you look at Mississippi and Georgia and a lot of other places, they believe in it, those governors, and they’re conservative people. Rick Perry’s a big fan.