Bali: Uitbarsting van de vulkaan Agung

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Eruption could accur in 'matter of hours'
Mount Agung in Bali is experiencing unprecedented levels of seismic activity and could erupt in a “matter of hours” if tremors continue, Indonesia’s volcanology centre has said.

More than 75,000 people have been evacuated in the last few days as Agung, the highest point of the island, has experienced hundreds of internal volcanic earthquakes.

“Instrumentally we have never recorded such high energy or seismicity from Mount Agung,” Devy Kamil Syahbana, a seismologist from Indonesia’s centre for volcanology and geological hazard mitigation, told the Guardian.

Data showed that Mount Agung experienced 844 volcanic earthquakes on Monday, and 300 to 400 earthquakes by midday on Tuesday, he said. “We need to pay attention because these kinds of earthquakes indicate the movement of magma and increase the probability of an eruption.”

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Evacuated people have sought shelter in hundreds of village halls and sports centres and in the homes of relatives in more than nine districts. President Joko Widodo is scheduled to visit evacuees at several camps on Tuesday.

Authorities have urged people to stay out the danger zone, a designated five- to seven-mile radius of the volcano.

The increasing frequency of deep and shallow volcanic earthquakes, as well as local tectonic tremors, is an indication that magma continues to move toward the surface. The alert status of Agung was raised to the highest level on Friday evening following a significant spike in seismic activity.

Kasbani, the head of the volcanology centre, told local media that if tremors continued, an eruption – the first in more than half a century – could be a “matter of hours” away.

The volcanology agency is also drawing data from GPS and satellite imagery, including a thermal camera. Readings from these measurements are in line with the increase in volcanic tremors.

Syahbana said it was impossible to say that Agung would definitely erupt, only that the data showed there was an increasing probability that it would.

“There is no volcanologist in the world who could predict precisely when a volcano will erupt,” he said. “Volcanoes are a stochastic system, many complexities are unknown by the human brain and technology.”

Mount Agung last erupted in 1963, when more than 1,000 people were killed. That event was preceded by an increased frequency in earthquakes.

One of the difficulties in predicting the likelihood and timing of an eruption on Agung is that monitoring of the volcano began only after the 1963 eruption.

Other volcanoes in Indonesia that have erupted more recently offer a greater wealth of data for seismologists to compare and assess.

“But for Agung we have no instrumental documentation,” said Syahbana. “The only records that we have is of the phenomena that were observed and reported by people around the volcano prior to the 1963 eruption.”

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Toeristen schuld aan dreigende vulkaanuitbarsting
De dreigende vulkaanuitbarsting op het Indonesische eiland Bali is te wijten aan buitenlandse toeristen die seks hadden op de berg Agung. Dat zegt een priester in een nabijgelegen dorp.

De Agung is een populaire plek voor wandelaars en die hebben de berg boos gemaakt, zegt de priester uit het dorp Muntig. Volgens hem hebben witte mensen op de berg seks gehad en gemenstrueerd.

Meer evacués

De Agung is nog altijd erg onrustig en steeds meer omwonenden verlaten het gebied uit angst voor een uitbarsting. Bijna 135.000 mensen hebben nu hun huis verlaten. Ze worden opgevangen in tenten, overheidsgebouwen en gymzalen in de buurt.

In het bedreigde gebied rond de berg loopt nog veel vee rond. De autoriteiten proberen de 30.000 dieren in veiligheid te brengen, omdat het vee een belangrijke inkomstenbron is voor de bevolking.

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Bali governor urges volcanologists to reevaluate alert status of Mount Agung, hopes to get it lowered

Mount Agung volcano looms in the background of a Balinese Hindu tempe in the Kubu subdistrict of Karangasem Regency in Bali on September 26, 2017. Photo: Sonny Tumbelaka/AFP
Bali Governor Made Mangku Pastika is desperate to get the alert status of Mount Agung lowered, raising concerns about the long-term economic impacts of the prolonged alert.

Pastika insists that some evacuees should be able to return home and get back to work.

“If only this could be reduced to standby status, the radius would be six kilometers,” Pastika said in Denpasar on Tuesday, as quoted by Antara Bali.

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Agung, located in Bali’s Karangasem regency, has been on level IV, the highest alert status for an eruption since Sept. 22, resulting in the evacuation of tens of thousands of local residents who had to leave the exclusion zone of 12 kilometers from the volcano’s crater. Around 139,199 evacuees have taken refuge at government-run shelters and tens of thousands have additionally fled to stay with family members and friends at other parts of the island.

The governor previously declared a state of emergency to help the government handle the high volume of evacuees. The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) says that as long as Agung is at level IV, they will keep extending the emergency status.

Pastika did not get into whether the actual science was there to back up downgrading Agung’s status to level III, but it being over a month since Agung was put on level IV, the governor did discuss the negative long-term impacts on the local economy, health, and education of the thousands of evacuees.

Not only are the people who have evacuated unable to work, but Bali Province has lost a number of its work force to handling the volcano.

And no doubt, the governor is concerned about how the alert status is affecting Bali’s biggest industry, tourism–which seems to be taking a hit.

“Because if we continue on like this, the impact will be felt very long,” Pastika said.

The governor says he does not want to endanger people by sending them back home too soon, but up-to-date monitoring equipment should allow for an eruption to be detected early, giving people enough time to quickly evacuate.

But of course it’s not up to the governor to determine the volcano’s status.

A coordination meeting is set for Oct. 26, according to Pastika. Meanwhile, the Coordinating Maritime Affairs Minister has requested that Volcanology and Disaster Hazard Mitigation (PVMB) conduct another review of Agung’s status level and that there should be a “second opinion” about the level.

While Agung’s seismic activity has been on the decline, PVMBG has kept the volcano on level IV based on a number of other factors that indicate an eruption could still be on the horizon.