quote:Patricia: History is being made
History is being made tonight in the Northeast Pacific as Hurricane Patricia churns about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico, south-southwest of Manzanillo. With its 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Patricia to Category 5, with top sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 924 millibars. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning eastward to Lazaro Cardenas. Update: Late Thursday night, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight captured some of the most extreme observations ever recorded in 70 years of reconnaissance activity. Based on flight-level winds of 179 knots (206 mph), NHC upgraded Linda's strength at 12:30 am EDT Friday to 185 mph. The estimated surface pressure of 892 mb is the lowest on record for the Northeast Pacific, and it ranks #3 for the entire Western Hemisphere behind only Wilma (882 mb, on October 19, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, on September 13, 1988). A surface reading of 892 mb was recorded at Key West during the Labor Day hurricane (September 2, 1935).
Satellite imagery of Patricia late Thursday was stunning, as the hurricane carved out a very symmetric core of intensifying convection (showers and thunderstorms) with a small eye at its center. Cloud-top temperatures within the convection are as cold as -130°F, a sign of extremely powerful updrafts. Patricia’s rate of strengthening since Wednesday has been truly remarkable. In a mere 36 hours, Patricia’s official NHC rating went from minimal tropical storm (40 mph) to Category 5 hurricane--among the most rapid intensification rates one might expect in a hurricane anywhere. NHC’s advisory on Thursday night placed Patricia in the elite group of 15 Northeast Pacific hurricanes that have reached Category 5 strength since 1959. One of those--an unnamed storm that struck near Manzanillo in 1959--is expected to be downgraded to Category 4 later this year after a reanalysis of data is confirmed. It remains the deadliest Northeast Pacific hurricane to date, resulting in an estimated 1800 direct and indirect fatalities.
nfortunately, Patricia is destined to fall in an even smaller group of Category 5s that take aim at Mexico's Pacific coastline. Most of the intense hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific move along west-northwest tracks that keep them well offshore of Mexico. Apart from the 1959 storm, only two Cat 5s in the Northeast Pacific database have arced northeastward into Mexico: 2009's Hurricane Rick, which weakened to a tropical storm well before making landfall, and 2002's Hurricane Kenna, the closest analogue by far to Patricia. Kenna strengthened as it recurved, then weakened only slightly before it plowed into the coast near San Blas as a Category 4 storm. Causing at least four deaths and inflicting around $100 million US in damage, Kenna struck with winds of 140 mph, which made it the second-strongest Pacific storm to strike Mexico in modern records.
The forecast for Patricia
Hurricanes rarely maintain Category 5 status for more than 24 hours, but Patricia has a very good shot at remaining a formidable storm right up to landfall. Along the expected path, sea-surface temperatures are at near-record warm levels (about 30.5°C, or 87°F), and there is enough deep oceanic heat so that even violent Category 5 winds are unlikely to stir up enough cooler water to disrupt the storm (see Figure 5 below). Vertical wind shear has increased to moderate levels (10 - 20 knots), and the shear is predicted to continue increasing on Friday, as Patricia moves into a zone of stronger upper-level southwesterlies that will curve the storm to the right. These winds may also push drier air into the hurricane's core, which could cause some disruption. Intense hurricanes also tend to go through eyewall replacement cycles after a day or two at peak strength, so it's quite possible that such a cycle will occur before landfall, which could cut down Patricia's strength slightly. Even with all these factors taken into account, it seems very probable that Patricia will reach land as at least a Category 4; the NHC's official forecast updated at 12:30 am EDT Friday brings Patricia onshore as a Category 5.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/230530.shtmlquote:Hurricane PATRICIA Public Advisory
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WTPZ35 KNHC 230530
HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
quote:Hurricane Patricia developed rapidly into a "potentially catastrophic" Category 5 storm that could sweep waves of almost 40 feet onto Mexico's Pacific coast Friday, forecasters said.
The Mexican government declared a state of emergency, warning residents to prepare for the "worst-case scenario" as Patricia threatened to race ashore around 7 p.m. on Friday with the potential to be the most powerful Pacific hurricane on record.
Several million residents — along with the tourist magnets of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo — were directly in the storm's projected path, the U.S. National Hurricane Center and Mexican emergency agencies said.
In die regio ja... maar volgens mij niet wereldwijd toch?quote:Op vrijdag 23 oktober 2015 11:39 schreef INViCTuS het volgende:
Reinier Van den Berg zegt: sterkste orkaan op aarde ooit gemeten.[ afbeelding ]twitter:
weer.nl schrijft dat ook. Een gevecht tussen Hayan en Patricia, maar lijkt gewoon te zijn door de vrouw.quote: