Beursvloer #220 - Politici stappen op, beleggers stappen in.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 13:19 schreef LXIV het volgende:
De belangrijkste reden dat de hele crisis niet simpelweg opgelost wordt door de geldpers aan te zetten is dat men wil dat de PIIGS hervormingen doorvoeren. Deze crisis is ideaal om de bevolking aldaar er van te overtuigen dat de huidige structuren niet meer voldoen.

Gaat het echt mis dan kan de geldpers alsnog gebruikt worden. Maar met de huidige gang van zaken komen we als het goed is beter uit de crisis dan we erin gegaan zijn. (ook het nut van een crisis). Want dan zijn de PIIGS een stuk gemoderniseerd.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 14:04 schreef iamcj het volgende:
Als het economische tij gekeerd is. Zoals je ziet in de grafiek is de koers niet echt bestand tegen economische stilstand en neergang. Kan nog wel even duren dus.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 14:33 schreef flyguy het volgende:

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Dan gaat het al weer omhoog. Als je het zou willen kopen dan is nu juist een mooi moment en als het dan nog zakt naar 2 euro of zo maakt het geen zak uit.

Neemt niet weg dat de luchtvaartindustrie bagger is.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 14:59 schreef iamcj het volgende:

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Een aandeel kopen zonder stoploss lijkt me nooit een goed idee.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 14:20 schreef Bajskorv het volgende:
De ECB moet juist lekker bij drukken. Laat de euro maar zakken, dat moet op de lange termijn toch gebeuren om weer een competitieve plek in de wereld te krijgen. Jammer dat we allemaal moet inleveren, maar da's gewoon de realiteit.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 15:06 schreef flyguy het volgende:

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Disclaimer: volatiliteit heeft geen rechtstreeks invloed op bedrijfsresultaten.

Een stoploss kan in veel gevallen handig zijn, maar voor aandelen-posities op langere termijn zijn ze praktisch irrelevant (er van uit gaande dat er geen leverage in het spel is).

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 15:09 schreef iamcj het volgende:

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Disclaimer: in het verleden behaalde resultaten bieden geen garantie voor de toekomst.

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Op woensdag 16 november 2011 15:07 schreef iamcj het volgende:
Van mij mag het, maar helpen doet het niet, alleen op korte termijn. Je gaat het toch niet winnen van China en Japan en US, die printen altijd harder dan wij.

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Northern Rock sold to Virgin Money

Northern Rock is being sold to Virgin Money for £747m, the government has announced.

The bank was nationalised in 2008 following its near collapse at the onset of the global credit crisis.

The government subsequently split the bank into two, Northern Rock plc, and Northern Rock (Asset Management), into which was placed its bad debt.

Virgin is buying Northern Rock plc and has pledged no additional compulsory redundancies for at least three years.

'Safeguards jobs'
Chancellor George Osborne said: "The sale of Northern Rock to Virgin Money is an important first step in getting the British taxpayer out of the business of owning banks.

"It represents value for money, will increase choice on the High Street for customers, and safeguards jobs in the North East."

The sale of Northern Rock plc is expected to be completed on 1 January 2012.

The government said it had no plans to sell Northern Rock (Asset Management), which still owes the Treasury £21bn - the amount that was injected into the old Northern Rock bank in the wake of its near collapse.

Virgin Money has pledged to establish a new headquarters in Newcastle, where Northern Rock is based.

In addition to paying £747m on completion of the sale, the government said Virgin Money was "expected" to pay an additional £50m within six months, and then a further £150m.

If Virgin Money sells or lists Northern Rock on the stock exchange in the next five years, it will have to pay the government an additional £50m to £80m.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15769886

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China’s economy has a reputation for being strong and prosperous, but according to a well-known Chinese television personality the country’s Gross Domestic Product is going in reverse.
Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis—on the brink of bankruptcy. In his memorable formulation: every province in China is Greece.
The restrictions Lang placed on the Oct. 22 speech in Shenyang City, in northern China’s Liaoning Province, included no audio or video recording, and no media. He can be heard saying that people should not post his speech online, or “everyone will look bad,” in the audio that is now on Youtube.


In the unusual, closed-door lecture, Lang gave a frank analysis of the Chinese economy and the censorship that is placed on intellectuals and public figures. “What I’m about to say is all true. But under this system, we are not allowed to speak the truth,” he said.
Despite Lang’s polished appearance on his high-profile TV shows, he said: “Don’t think that we are living in a peaceful time now. Actually the media cannot report anything at all. Those of us who do TV shows are so miserable and frustrated, because we cannot do any programs. As long as something is related to the government, we cannot report about it.”
He said that the regime doesn’t listen to experts, and that Party officials are insufferably arrogant. “If you don’t agree with him, he thinks you are against him,” he said.
Lang’s assessment that the regime is bankrupt was based on five conjectures.
Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly.
Secondly, that the regime’s officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang.
Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China’s economy is in recession.
Fourthly, that the regime’s officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang’s data, China’s GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in infrastructure construction, including real estate development, railways, and highways each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010).
Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent, Lang said.
Once the “economic tsunami” starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said.
Several commentators have expressed broad agreement with Lang’s analysis.
Professor Frank Xie at the University of South Carolina, Aiken, said that the idea of China going bankrupt isn’t far fetched. Major construction projects have helped inflate the GDP, he says. “On the surface, it is a big number, but inflation is even higher. So in reality, China’s economy is in recession.”
Further, Xie said that official figures shouldn’t be relied on. The regime’s vice premier, Li Keqiang for example, admitted to a U.S. diplomat that he doesn’t believe the statistics produced by lower-level officials, and when he was the governor of Liaoning Province “had to personally see the hard data.”
Cheng Xiaonong, an economist and former aide to ousted Party leader Zhao Ziyang, said that high praise of the “China model” is often made on the basis of the high-visibility construction projects, a big GDP, and much money in foreign reserves. “They pay little attention to things such as whether people’s basic rights are guaranteed, or their living standard has improved or not,” he said.
Behind the fiat control of the economy, which can have the appearance of being efficient, there is enormous waste and corruption, Cheng said. It means that little spending is done on education, welfare, the health system, etc.
Cheng says that for the last decade the Chinese regime has accumulated its wealth primarily by promoting real estate development, buying urban and suburban residential properties at low prices (or simply taking them), and selling them to developers at high prices.
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China’s Economy on the Brink of Collapse
According to Cheng, the goals of regime officials (to enrich themselves and increase their power) are in direct conflict with those of the people–so social injustice expands, and economic propaganda meant to portray the situation as otherwise prevails.

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Op donderdag 17 november 2011 11:08 schreef Perrin het volgende:
Zo heeft Branson dus een Britse banklicentie en de 70 filialen op de kop getikt, als ik 't goed begrijp.

Geinig bedrag ook, 747 miljoen pond, geboden door een bedrijf dat veel met luchtvaart doet..

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Op donderdag 17 november 2011 18:57 schreef TeringHenkie het volgende:
De ECB print toch helemaal niet bij in de zin van dat het masaal obligaties opkoopt? Het verlaagt/verhoogt toch alleen de rente?

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Op dinsdag 15 november 2011 14:32 schreef Dinosaur_Sr het volgende:

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Daarover gesproken: waar is tony_clifton gebleven? Is die ook voor een CRA gaan werken?

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Op zaterdag 19 november 2011 13:48 schreef tony_clifton- het volgende:
Ik maak mij dus niet al te veel zorgen. Eigenlijk voel ik mij gewoon beter sinds ik niet meer elke dag naar die getallen en tickers zit te kijken .