WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
Kwam de volgende website tegen http://www.avaresearch.com van Mike Stathis, volgens eigen zeggen een zeer succesvol voorspeller van economische trends.
Hier zijn track record
:
America’s Financial Apocalypse (2006 extended version) should be read cover to cover. But here are just a few predictions made by Mike Stathis in this book. He…
* Predicted the possibility of Dow 6000, showing compelling evidence - Chapter 16, pp 336-342
* Predicted the collapse of the commodities bubble in 2008/2009 and told readers that would be the time to buy - Chapter 14
* Predicted a large correction in China's economy by 2009 and told readers that would be the time to buy – p383 (he followed up many times online with this beginning with my first online article in May 5, 2008 http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-74.html)
* Called the bottom in the Chinese market in November 2008 and advised investors to start buying. http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-334.html
* Warned of further downside in the US market in Nov, told investors to focus on cash but gave some blockbuster stock picks - AA, the HMOs; he later advised picking up DOW http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-334.html
* Warned that the credit rating agencies were passing AAA ratings to risky mortgage debt – p219
* Warned of the lack of adequate regulatory authority over the MBS market positioned it for a massive collapse – p222
* Warned of a mortgage-related derivatives meltdown resulting in losses in the trillions of dollars – p221
* Warned that the banks would suffer as a result of the implosion of the MBS market – 223
* Advised readers to short LEND, FRE, FMN, FRE, banks and homebuilders (Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble)
* Stated the that Fannie and Freddie would be bailed out by taxpayers – p221
* Stated real estate prices would decline by 35% on average (50-60% in regions of CA, FL, etc) – p223
* Warned that the collapse of the real estate bubble and stock market would lead to the “Poor Effect,” opposite to that seen during a rising stock and real estate market – p201
* Provided exhaustive evidence of a massive real estate bubble ready to burst – chapter 10 – the most exhaustive and insightful analysis anywhere
* Warned that GM and GE would also be affected by the real estate implosion – p223
* Warned of the possibility of the ABS markets imploding – p223
* Predicted and proved irrefutable evidence there would be a depression – entire book
* Predicted there would be a New Deal – p 346
* Warned about the entitlements tsunami which will, by absolute necessity result in massive tax hikes -- Chapter 11
* Addressed healthcare as the second biggest long-term problem faced by America and detailed the problems - Chapter 7
* Advised investors to trade the volatility of gold rather than buy and hold – p381
* Advised investors to invest in oil trusts as a way to deal with the high volatility of oil -- Chapters 17 and 18
* Mentioned the possibility that the Fed would intentionally create massive inflation in order to pay off the huge national debt – p362
* Provided a generic asset allocation for conservative, moderate and aggressive investors – in each case, Cash was the #1 asset (so they would be able to buy after the market crashed). p 383
* Other assets recommended were oil trusts, gold, silver, Chinese funds (note my warning that China’s economy would correct, indicating a time to buy below), healthcare, TIPS, Dollar hedge with the euro – p 383
* Predicted an inflationary depression followed by brief periods of deflation if things got really bad (we experienced deflation during Q4, 2008) -- Chapters 16 and 17
* Discussed effective ways to manage risk – pp 376-385
* Detailed how the government manipulates economic data (GDP, inflation, unemployment) and WHY - Chapter 11
* Explained how gold was a hedge against deflation, not inflation – pp360-362
* (he followed up on this in detail to help the sheep who are being taken by the gold bugs http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-291.html)
* Explained how America today (2006) shared many similarities to pre-depression America – Chapter 16, pp343-346
* Warned of the possibility of China dumping U.S. Treasuries or using this threat for economic (such as unfair trade and currency manipulation) and political leverage pp308-309, 312
* Explained how corporate America is destroying the middle class – Chapter 12, pp322-325, 257-262,
* Detailed America’s two-decade period of declining living standards – pp243-248
* Explained how the SEC permits legalized insider trading by corporations – pp255-256
* Proved how the economy under Bush was a disaster and was set to implode – Chapter 15
* Explained how the SEC is useless and serves as a partner in crime with Wall Street – Chapter 12
* Explained how the dollar is backed by oil and how the Saudis have a huge amount of control of the fate of the U.S. economy, pp310-311
* Predicted that most baby boomers would never be able to retire due to the stock market collapse – Chapters 8 and 13
* Exposed the myths and discussed the real problems with Social Security – increased dependence and loss of buying power – Chapter 8
100s of other forecasts many which have materialized; others on the way
Wat stukken uit zijn boek:
From Chapter 10 of “America’s Financial Apocalypse”(2006)…
“In many parts of America, home prices have risen as high as 150 percent in just a few years. Amongst the cities with the biggest housing bubbles are Phoenix, Las Vegas, Portland, Los Angeles, Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, and Washington D.C. As well, much of California and Florida have experienced a huge surge in home prices in just a few years.”
“At its bottom, I would estimate a 30 to 35 percent correction for the average home. And in ‘hot spots’ such as Las Vegas, selected areas of Northern and Southern California and Florida, home prices could plummet by 55 to 60 percent from peak values.”
The “Poor Effect”
“Considerable research has shown that Americans view their homes as a significant portion of their future wealth. Therefore, when home prices increase rapidly, they save less. Instead, they consume excessively because they feel richer than before (i.e. the “wealth effect”). A similar situation occurs during bullish stock markets, as previously discussed. But can not the opposite be true as well?”
“Across the nation, even if we assume a very conservative 20 percent correction, there would still be several major regions that would experience declines of 35 to 40 percent. Declines of this magnitude would wipe out the wealth effect, as many watch their home equity evaporate into thin air. This will not only halt consumer spending, but it will also force millions of foreclosures across America, causing housing inventories to rise, which could cause a further collapse in home prices. The aftermath of record foreclosures will send shockwaves to the stock and bond markets.”
“This will cause a record number of foreclosures, as over 10 million are possible within the next 6 to 8 years.”
“According to the Federal Reserve Board, American home owners extracted $600 billion in equity from their homes in 2004 (up by $39 billion from 2003) and spent half of this money on goods and services. This $300 billion accounted for 40 percent of the GDP growth in 2004. Between 2003 and 2004 alone, the Federal Reserve estimates that Americans tapped into over $1 trillion of equity from their homes using home equity loans, refinancings, and cash-out purchases at closing (figure 10-19). Alone, these cash-out financings have been estimated to account for a significant portion of inflated values during the more recent stages of the bubble. It has been this source of credit that has fueled the primary portion of GDP growth since 2003.”
“Ironically, it has been the flight from the scandals of the recent stock market bubble that have caused many to seek real estate as a “safe” investment alternative. And while the stock market is by no means finished correcting from the bull market period of the 1990s, we now have a real estate bubble that must also correct.”
“Washington has permitted this industry to engage in irresponsible lending practices to increase access to credit for the purpose of fueling the phantom recovery. This has served to enhance consumer spending that has boosted many industry wages; fees and commissions of brokers in the real estate and mortgage industry, commercial banking salaries, and revenues in all industries as a result of reckless debt spending. Hence, without this real estate bubble, there would be very few signs of improvement in the economy since 2003.”
“As well, remember that the majority of government discretionary spending items have been for Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina, and homeland security—none of which resulted in a direct improvement in living standards, as normally implied by GDP numbers. Therefore, if we adjust for the effects of spending due to credit released from the real estate bubble and due to government expenditures that have not resulted in an improved economic benefit, America has actually registered negative GDP growth since 2003. Yet, aided by the loose monetary policies of Greenspan, the financial industry has helped create the illusion of a recovery.”
“Even the riskiest of these loans can be manipulated into AAA-rated debt and sold to pensions and other large funds because the same standards that apply to corporate debt are not applied to collateralized debt products. In addition, these ratings do not account for whether investors will receive a return on principal.”
“And since companies that securitize these loans are not regulated like banks, they don’t have a capital requirement that would ensure adequate reserves to fund payments to investors.”
“Because Fannie and Freddie lack sufficient government oversight, they haven’t maintained adequate capital reserves needed to safeguard the security of payments to investors. And due to exemption from the SEC Act of 1933, they aren’t required to reveal their financial position. In fact, they’re the only publicly traded companies in the Fortune 500 exempt from routine SEC disclosures required for adequate transparency and investor accountability. Exemption from the Act of 1933 also releases the GSEs from adherence to rules governing tender offers and public reporting of insider stock transactions. Finally, they’re not required to register their debt offerings with the SEC, which diminishes transparency further.”
“What would happen if one or more GSE (i.e. Fannie or Freddie) got into financial trouble? Not only would investors get crushed, but taxpayers would have to bail them out since the GSEs are backed by the government. Everyone would feel the effects. With close to $2 trillion in debt between Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae alone, as well as several trillion held by commercial banks, failure of just one GSE or related entity could create a huge disaster that would easily eclipse the Savings & Loan Crisis of the late 1980s.”
“Furthermore, the GSEs have created very risky derivatives exposures for themselves and many financial institutions. As these debt instruments evolve into different products, less transparency and more uncertainty is created. These mortgage derivatives are complex and considered very speculative.”
“I want you to stop and think for a minute about all of the fraudulent practices that have occurred within the housing industry, from known problems of poor workmanship and cheap materials by some builders, to inflated appraisals performed to generate ease of lending and to support cash-out deals.”
“From inflated appraisals alone, 10 to 15 percent of MBS securities or up to $1.5 trillion have been overvalued by conservative estimates. Combine that with the lack of transparency, questionable risk exposure and fraudulent practices by executives at Fannie and Freddie, and you have a disaster ready to strike.”
“Now combine that with over 10 million Americans holding interest-only and ARM mortgages, throw in a million or two job losses due to say the failure of Delta, Ford, General Motors, or some other large vulnerable company, and you could end up with a blowup in the MBS market. This scenario would devastate the stock, bond and real estate markets. Most likely, there would also be an even bigger mess in the swaps and derivatives markets. In conclusion, the collateralized securities market is a very tall and fragile house of cards poised to collapse, and all it might take is one card to be dislodged.”
“The real estate fallout will no doubt cripple smaller companies such as mortgage lenders, home builders, and home improvement stores. But it will also affect huge financial institutions such as Citigroup, Bank of America, Chase, General Motors (GMAC), General Electric (GE Finance), and Washington Mutual, depending upon the extent of their exposure. As well, if things get really nasty the credit problems could extend to the ABS market which would cause further devastation.”
“Based on today’s grossly overvalued housing prices, a 35 percent correction on average seems very likely. And in some areas, a 50 to 60 percent correction is possible. Most likely, it will take several years for the real estate washout to be completed. We can only hope that the MBS market doesn’t experience its first blow up since inception, but don’t bet on it.”
“Under normal conditions, anywhere from 25 to 30 percent of the U.S. economy is directly affected by the housing sector. However, due to exaggerated asset prices from the housing bubble, this share is significantly higher. I have shown the magnified effects of a loss of housing value on home equity, but this also has a magnified affect on the stock market because the wealth effect is reversed, resulting in dampened consumer spending. Accordingly, numerous studies have shown that housing prices have up to two times the effect on consumer spending as they do on declines in stock prices. Consequently, if housing prices decline by 25 percent, the economic impact will be as if the stock market declined by 50 percent.”
Dus wellicht de moeite waard om te lezen.
Hier zijn track record
:
America’s Financial Apocalypse (2006 extended version) should be read cover to cover. But here are just a few predictions made by Mike Stathis in this book. He…
* Predicted the possibility of Dow 6000, showing compelling evidence - Chapter 16, pp 336-342
* Predicted the collapse of the commodities bubble in 2008/2009 and told readers that would be the time to buy - Chapter 14
* Predicted a large correction in China's economy by 2009 and told readers that would be the time to buy – p383 (he followed up many times online with this beginning with my first online article in May 5, 2008 http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-74.html)
* Called the bottom in the Chinese market in November 2008 and advised investors to start buying. http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-334.html
* Warned of further downside in the US market in Nov, told investors to focus on cash but gave some blockbuster stock picks - AA, the HMOs; he later advised picking up DOW http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-334.html
* Warned that the credit rating agencies were passing AAA ratings to risky mortgage debt – p219
* Warned of the lack of adequate regulatory authority over the MBS market positioned it for a massive collapse – p222
* Warned of a mortgage-related derivatives meltdown resulting in losses in the trillions of dollars – p221
* Warned that the banks would suffer as a result of the implosion of the MBS market – 223
* Advised readers to short LEND, FRE, FMN, FRE, banks and homebuilders (Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble)
* Stated the that Fannie and Freddie would be bailed out by taxpayers – p221
* Stated real estate prices would decline by 35% on average (50-60% in regions of CA, FL, etc) – p223
* Warned that the collapse of the real estate bubble and stock market would lead to the “Poor Effect,” opposite to that seen during a rising stock and real estate market – p201
* Provided exhaustive evidence of a massive real estate bubble ready to burst – chapter 10 – the most exhaustive and insightful analysis anywhere
* Warned that GM and GE would also be affected by the real estate implosion – p223
* Warned of the possibility of the ABS markets imploding – p223
* Predicted and proved irrefutable evidence there would be a depression – entire book
* Predicted there would be a New Deal – p 346
* Warned about the entitlements tsunami which will, by absolute necessity result in massive tax hikes -- Chapter 11
* Addressed healthcare as the second biggest long-term problem faced by America and detailed the problems - Chapter 7
* Advised investors to trade the volatility of gold rather than buy and hold – p381
* Advised investors to invest in oil trusts as a way to deal with the high volatility of oil -- Chapters 17 and 18
* Mentioned the possibility that the Fed would intentionally create massive inflation in order to pay off the huge national debt – p362
* Provided a generic asset allocation for conservative, moderate and aggressive investors – in each case, Cash was the #1 asset (so they would be able to buy after the market crashed). p 383
* Other assets recommended were oil trusts, gold, silver, Chinese funds (note my warning that China’s economy would correct, indicating a time to buy below), healthcare, TIPS, Dollar hedge with the euro – p 383
* Predicted an inflationary depression followed by brief periods of deflation if things got really bad (we experienced deflation during Q4, 2008) -- Chapters 16 and 17
* Discussed effective ways to manage risk – pp 376-385
* Detailed how the government manipulates economic data (GDP, inflation, unemployment) and WHY - Chapter 11
* Explained how gold was a hedge against deflation, not inflation – pp360-362
* (he followed up on this in detail to help the sheep who are being taken by the gold bugs http://www.avaresearch.com/article_details-291.html)
* Explained how America today (2006) shared many similarities to pre-depression America – Chapter 16, pp343-346
* Warned of the possibility of China dumping U.S. Treasuries or using this threat for economic (such as unfair trade and currency manipulation) and political leverage pp308-309, 312
* Explained how corporate America is destroying the middle class – Chapter 12, pp322-325, 257-262,
* Detailed America’s two-decade period of declining living standards – pp243-248
* Explained how the SEC permits legalized insider trading by corporations – pp255-256
* Proved how the economy under Bush was a disaster and was set to implode – Chapter 15
* Explained how the SEC is useless and serves as a partner in crime with Wall Street – Chapter 12
* Explained how the dollar is backed by oil and how the Saudis have a huge amount of control of the fate of the U.S. economy, pp310-311
* Predicted that most baby boomers would never be able to retire due to the stock market collapse – Chapters 8 and 13
* Exposed the myths and discussed the real problems with Social Security – increased dependence and loss of buying power – Chapter 8
100s of other forecasts many which have materialized; others on the way
Wat stukken uit zijn boek:
From Chapter 10 of “America’s Financial Apocalypse”(2006)…
“In many parts of America, home prices have risen as high as 150 percent in just a few years. Amongst the cities with the biggest housing bubbles are Phoenix, Las Vegas, Portland, Los Angeles, Boston, San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, and Washington D.C. As well, much of California and Florida have experienced a huge surge in home prices in just a few years.”
“At its bottom, I would estimate a 30 to 35 percent correction for the average home. And in ‘hot spots’ such as Las Vegas, selected areas of Northern and Southern California and Florida, home prices could plummet by 55 to 60 percent from peak values.”
The “Poor Effect”
“Considerable research has shown that Americans view their homes as a significant portion of their future wealth. Therefore, when home prices increase rapidly, they save less. Instead, they consume excessively because they feel richer than before (i.e. the “wealth effect”). A similar situation occurs during bullish stock markets, as previously discussed. But can not the opposite be true as well?”
“Across the nation, even if we assume a very conservative 20 percent correction, there would still be several major regions that would experience declines of 35 to 40 percent. Declines of this magnitude would wipe out the wealth effect, as many watch their home equity evaporate into thin air. This will not only halt consumer spending, but it will also force millions of foreclosures across America, causing housing inventories to rise, which could cause a further collapse in home prices. The aftermath of record foreclosures will send shockwaves to the stock and bond markets.”
“This will cause a record number of foreclosures, as over 10 million are possible within the next 6 to 8 years.”
“According to the Federal Reserve Board, American home owners extracted $600 billion in equity from their homes in 2004 (up by $39 billion from 2003) and spent half of this money on goods and services. This $300 billion accounted for 40 percent of the GDP growth in 2004. Between 2003 and 2004 alone, the Federal Reserve estimates that Americans tapped into over $1 trillion of equity from their homes using home equity loans, refinancings, and cash-out purchases at closing (figure 10-19). Alone, these cash-out financings have been estimated to account for a significant portion of inflated values during the more recent stages of the bubble. It has been this source of credit that has fueled the primary portion of GDP growth since 2003.”
“Ironically, it has been the flight from the scandals of the recent stock market bubble that have caused many to seek real estate as a “safe” investment alternative. And while the stock market is by no means finished correcting from the bull market period of the 1990s, we now have a real estate bubble that must also correct.”
“Washington has permitted this industry to engage in irresponsible lending practices to increase access to credit for the purpose of fueling the phantom recovery. This has served to enhance consumer spending that has boosted many industry wages; fees and commissions of brokers in the real estate and mortgage industry, commercial banking salaries, and revenues in all industries as a result of reckless debt spending. Hence, without this real estate bubble, there would be very few signs of improvement in the economy since 2003.”
“As well, remember that the majority of government discretionary spending items have been for Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina, and homeland security—none of which resulted in a direct improvement in living standards, as normally implied by GDP numbers. Therefore, if we adjust for the effects of spending due to credit released from the real estate bubble and due to government expenditures that have not resulted in an improved economic benefit, America has actually registered negative GDP growth since 2003. Yet, aided by the loose monetary policies of Greenspan, the financial industry has helped create the illusion of a recovery.”
“Even the riskiest of these loans can be manipulated into AAA-rated debt and sold to pensions and other large funds because the same standards that apply to corporate debt are not applied to collateralized debt products. In addition, these ratings do not account for whether investors will receive a return on principal.”
“And since companies that securitize these loans are not regulated like banks, they don’t have a capital requirement that would ensure adequate reserves to fund payments to investors.”
“Because Fannie and Freddie lack sufficient government oversight, they haven’t maintained adequate capital reserves needed to safeguard the security of payments to investors. And due to exemption from the SEC Act of 1933, they aren’t required to reveal their financial position. In fact, they’re the only publicly traded companies in the Fortune 500 exempt from routine SEC disclosures required for adequate transparency and investor accountability. Exemption from the Act of 1933 also releases the GSEs from adherence to rules governing tender offers and public reporting of insider stock transactions. Finally, they’re not required to register their debt offerings with the SEC, which diminishes transparency further.”
“What would happen if one or more GSE (i.e. Fannie or Freddie) got into financial trouble? Not only would investors get crushed, but taxpayers would have to bail them out since the GSEs are backed by the government. Everyone would feel the effects. With close to $2 trillion in debt between Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae alone, as well as several trillion held by commercial banks, failure of just one GSE or related entity could create a huge disaster that would easily eclipse the Savings & Loan Crisis of the late 1980s.”
“Furthermore, the GSEs have created very risky derivatives exposures for themselves and many financial institutions. As these debt instruments evolve into different products, less transparency and more uncertainty is created. These mortgage derivatives are complex and considered very speculative.”
“I want you to stop and think for a minute about all of the fraudulent practices that have occurred within the housing industry, from known problems of poor workmanship and cheap materials by some builders, to inflated appraisals performed to generate ease of lending and to support cash-out deals.”
“From inflated appraisals alone, 10 to 15 percent of MBS securities or up to $1.5 trillion have been overvalued by conservative estimates. Combine that with the lack of transparency, questionable risk exposure and fraudulent practices by executives at Fannie and Freddie, and you have a disaster ready to strike.”
“Now combine that with over 10 million Americans holding interest-only and ARM mortgages, throw in a million or two job losses due to say the failure of Delta, Ford, General Motors, or some other large vulnerable company, and you could end up with a blowup in the MBS market. This scenario would devastate the stock, bond and real estate markets. Most likely, there would also be an even bigger mess in the swaps and derivatives markets. In conclusion, the collateralized securities market is a very tall and fragile house of cards poised to collapse, and all it might take is one card to be dislodged.”
“The real estate fallout will no doubt cripple smaller companies such as mortgage lenders, home builders, and home improvement stores. But it will also affect huge financial institutions such as Citigroup, Bank of America, Chase, General Motors (GMAC), General Electric (GE Finance), and Washington Mutual, depending upon the extent of their exposure. As well, if things get really nasty the credit problems could extend to the ABS market which would cause further devastation.”
“Based on today’s grossly overvalued housing prices, a 35 percent correction on average seems very likely. And in some areas, a 50 to 60 percent correction is possible. Most likely, it will take several years for the real estate washout to be completed. We can only hope that the MBS market doesn’t experience its first blow up since inception, but don’t bet on it.”
“Under normal conditions, anywhere from 25 to 30 percent of the U.S. economy is directly affected by the housing sector. However, due to exaggerated asset prices from the housing bubble, this share is significantly higher. I have shown the magnified effects of a loss of housing value on home equity, but this also has a magnified affect on the stock market because the wealth effect is reversed, resulting in dampened consumer spending. Accordingly, numerous studies have shown that housing prices have up to two times the effect on consumer spending as they do on declines in stock prices. Consequently, if housing prices decline by 25 percent, the economic impact will be as if the stock market declined by 50 percent.”
Dus wellicht de moeite waard om te lezen.
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