WGR Werk, Geldzaken, Recht en de Beurs
Hier kun je alles kwijt over sollicitaties, werksituaties, belastingen, (handelen op) de beurs, hypotheken, beleggingen en salarissen, arbeidscontracten of geschillen met je (huis)baas. Alles over werk, geldzaken en recht dus.
Uit de nieuwsbrief van John Mauldin van dit weekend:
Outrageous! - Artificial Deflation!
Speaking of deflation, let me mention something I find totally outrageous. Normally, I actually take up for the bureaucrats who are stuck with the task of trying to monitor inflation. It is a tough job, and like Monday-morning quarterbacks, everybody thinks you should have done it differently. I can understand the rationale for hedonic measurements, housing rent equivalents, etc., even if I don't agree with them. You have to set some rules and live with them. But the latest imbroglio is disgraceful.
It seems the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the CPI next week, will treat the subsidy received by those 800,000 car buyers who bought a car in the "Cash for Clunkers" program as if the price of a car fell by $4,500. Really? My tax dollars account for nothing?
This does several things. It will decrease the inflation used to adjust the GDP for this quarter. Not the end of the world, but annoying But what really matters is that the CPI is used to calculate Social Security increases and interest paid on TIPS.
If I tried to defraud one of my clients using such accounting legerdemain, I would be shut down, sued, and taken to court (at the minimum) by the host of regulators who look over my shoulder. And I should be! You don't make such changes in the rules to your own benefit. But that is what the BLS did. This policy should be overruled immediately. There are enough deflationary forces in the world without having to artificially create some more.
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Het belangrijke heb ik vet gemaakt. Deze effecten zijn natuurlijk altijd een heel belangrijke reden dat de overheid de door hen betaalde instanties de inflatie cijfers laten verdamnliedstatisticsen. En dan kunnen ze allemaal mooie blabla en cijfertjes laten zien waaruit zou blijken dat de inflatie wel 'goed' berekend wordt, maar mijn inner Fat Tony gelooft daar niets van.
Outrageous! - Artificial Deflation!
Speaking of deflation, let me mention something I find totally outrageous. Normally, I actually take up for the bureaucrats who are stuck with the task of trying to monitor inflation. It is a tough job, and like Monday-morning quarterbacks, everybody thinks you should have done it differently. I can understand the rationale for hedonic measurements, housing rent equivalents, etc., even if I don't agree with them. You have to set some rules and live with them. But the latest imbroglio is disgraceful.
It seems the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the CPI next week, will treat the subsidy received by those 800,000 car buyers who bought a car in the "Cash for Clunkers" program as if the price of a car fell by $4,500. Really? My tax dollars account for nothing?
This does several things. It will decrease the inflation used to adjust the GDP for this quarter. Not the end of the world, but annoying But what really matters is that the CPI is used to calculate Social Security increases and interest paid on TIPS.
If I tried to defraud one of my clients using such accounting legerdemain, I would be shut down, sued, and taken to court (at the minimum) by the host of regulators who look over my shoulder. And I should be! You don't make such changes in the rules to your own benefit. But that is what the BLS did. This policy should be overruled immediately. There are enough deflationary forces in the world without having to artificially create some more.
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Het belangrijke heb ik vet gemaakt. Deze effecten zijn natuurlijk altijd een heel belangrijke reden dat de overheid de door hen betaalde instanties de inflatie cijfers laten verdamnliedstatisticsen. En dan kunnen ze allemaal mooie blabla en cijfertjes laten zien waaruit zou blijken dat de inflatie wel 'goed' berekend wordt, maar mijn inner Fat Tony gelooft daar niets van.
Goud kan je niet bijdrukken
Het belangrijkste woord in dat hele verhaal en niemand weet wat het is. Geweldig.quote:verdamnliedstatisticsen
Google is your friend, abuse your friends
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statisticsquote:Op zondag 20 september 2009 01:56 schreef Metalfrost het volgende:
[..]
Het belangrijkste woord in dat hele verhaal en niemand weet wat het is. Geweldig.
Goud kan je niet bijdrukken
Het staat niet in de Vandale.quote:Op zondag 20 september 2009 02:00 schreef Poekieman het volgende:
[..]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
Google is your friend, abuse your friends
Altijd jammer dat 'goede media' dit soort artikelen niet oppakt wat betreft hoe ze statistiek moeten lezen.quote:
Lijstjes met nummertjes is mooi, maar er een conclusie aan vast trekken is voor een journalist soms ook nog te moeilijk
(telegraaf?)
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