quote:

What movement there has been over the past few days has mostly been in North Carolina and Kentucky. In the former race, Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad clearly seems to have backfired, and Kay Hagan has emerged with a 7-point lead in the latest polls from PPP and SurveyUSA. When coupled with the strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Dole will need a miracle to retain her seat.

In Kentucky, on the other hand, polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA suggest Mitch McConnell standing a safe enough distance away from the brink, with leads of 7 and and 8 points, respectively.

So that sets the following scene: Democrats will almost certainly pickup the Republican-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado and New Hampshire, although there is a remote upset possibility in the latter race, where Republicans were pleased with John Sununu's performance in his debates against Jeanne Shaheen. North Carolina and Oregon are also likely to send freshman democrats to the Senate Chamber.

The Republicans are the significant favroites to hold onto their seats in Mississippi and Kentucky, although upsets remain possible there in the case of a Democratic wave. Georgia is a little trickier. Although all polling continues to show Jim Martin a few points behind Saxby Chambliss, Martin can earn a run-off by holding Chambliss under an outright majority of Georgia's votes. I would assign a 50 percent chance to a Chambliss win outright, a 40 percent chance to a run-off, and a 10 percent chance to a Martin win outright.

Finally, in Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively. Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.

http://www.fivethirtyeigh(...)jection-114-7-8.html

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Op dinsdag 4 november 2008 18:02 schreef maartena het volgende:
Er worden trouwens ook nog in 11 staten gouverneurs verkozen.

quote:

Some very weird things are going on in Georgia, as the total vote is much, much lower than expected. Some speculation has the early vote not being counted, which would strongly suggest that Saxby Chambliss will have to face a runoff in four weeks.

If Franken holds on, if Jeff Merkley in Oregon can win (Multnomah is the big Portland Democratic engine and is largely outstanding), then it is increasingly likely that the Dems will converge on Georgia for the next four weeks to try to win the 60th Senate seat.

quote:

Op woensdag 5 november 2008 13:13 schreef Montov het volgende:

[..]

En als Ted Stevens wordt gekozen, wordt hij vermoedelijk door zijn collega's weggestemd en komt er een nieuwe verkiezing.

quote:

Op woensdag 5 november 2008 09:18 schreef Caesu het volgende:
er zijn nog 3 spannende Senaats-races aan de gang.
en 1 wat minder spannend.

als Democraten 60 zetels in de Senaat krijgen kunnen Republikeinen geen wetgeving meer blokkeren.
nu staan ze op 56.

in Oregon en Minnesato (Franken staat voor nu!) scheelt het maar 1000-2000 stemmen.

in Alaska en vooral Georgia is het verschil groter.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/main.results/#S

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Op woensdag 5 november 2008 15:51 schreef rubbereend het volgende:
als Stevens toch zelf alsnog opstapt mag Palin toch de nieuwe aanwijzen

quote:

Op woensdag 5 november 2008 16:53 schreef maartena het volgende:

[..]

Of Palin mag zelf plaats nemen, en het gouverneurschap opgeven.... kansje voor Palin om toch in Washington te blijven.

quote:

Alaska: With 99% of precincts reported, Ted Stevens (R) leads Mark Begich (D) by 3500 votes.

There are reportedly over 60,000 absentee ballots filed, so no one has called it yet.

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss (R) leads Jim Martin (D) 50-46. However, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that over 600,000 early votes have not been counted. Martin led handily in early voting, so it's highly likely that Chambliss will end up below 50% and this will go to a runoff.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman leads by less than 600 votes now. All outstanding ballots will matter, and there's the possibility of a recount as well.

Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) leads Jeff Merkley (D) by 15,000 votes with 75% of precincts reporting. Not looking good.

quote:

Op woensdag 5 november 2008 16:53 schreef maartena het volgende:

[..]

Of Palin mag zelf plaats nemen, en het gouverneurschap opgeven.... kansje voor Palin om toch in Washington te blijven.

quote:

When we last checked in Minnesota, Coleman's lead had shrunk from 477 to 337.

Well, things look even better tonight, as the gap has shrunk to 236 votes.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/7/23627/6445/512/656464

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Op zaterdag 8 november 2008 23:33 schreef rubbereend het volgende:
tellen ze daar zo langzaam?

quote:

Stevens (R) 131,382
Begich (D) 132,196


That's a Begich lead of 814 votes. A landslide!

This brings the total number of votes counted today to roughly 53,000, which is what they were supposed to get to today. So this should be the final count for the evening.

There are still another 38,000 or so ballots left to be counted, but those are from Begich-friendly districts. Begich will win this race.

The question is whether there will be a recount. The trigger is half a percent. The margin is currently 0.29 percent. The rest of the ballots will likely push this thing out past the recount window.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/13/01822/666/844/660224

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Op donderdag 13 november 2008 18:17 schreef rubbereend het volgende:
langzaam kruipen de Democraten toch nog naar die 60

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Op donderdag 20 november 2008 08:48 schreef Montov het volgende:
De recount in Minnesota is bezig en de Democraat Franken is iets ingelopen, hij heeft nu nog maar 172 stemmen achterstand. Dat is een verschil van 0.006% op de bijna 3 miljoen stemmen.

quote:

Op maandag 24 november 2008 14:32 schreef One_of_the_few het volgende:
worden bij een eerste uitslag niet alle stemmen geteld?
een hertelling moet toch eigenlijk dezelfde uitslag geven als de eerste keer? tenzij er fraude is gepleegd..
Ik weet niet hoe het werkt en ben wel benieuwd. Nu komt het op mij over dat je net zo vaak een hertelling aanvraagt totdat hij voor jou klopt..

quote:

Op maandag 24 november 2008 16:12 schreef Nielsch het volgende:
Waarom kunnen mensen niet gewoon een stembiljet invullen zoals het hoort? Zo moeilijk lijkt me dat nou toch ook weer niet

quote:

Op maandag 24 november 2008 16:57 schreef rubbereend het volgende:
maarja als de intentie duidelijk is moeten ze hem toch goedkeuren?

quote:

Op woensdag 26 november 2008 00:35 schreef FritsVanEgters het volgende:
John McCain plakt er nog een termijn aan vast. Verkiezingen 2010.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/(...)mccain-to-run-f.html

quote:

Op woensdag 26 november 2008 09:18 schreef Nielsch het volgende:
Wat ik me nou precies afvraag, die filibuster, is dat nou alleen maar een ontzettend irritante vertragingstechniek of kun je daarmee ook daadwerkelijk wetsvoorstellen tegenhouden?

quote:

Op zondag 23 november 2008 11:03 schreef Montov het volgende:
Leuke 'quiz':
http://minnesota.publicra(...)_challenged_ballots/

quote:

Op woensdag 3 december 2008 08:36 schreef Montov het volgende:
In Georgia is de runoff verloren door de Democraat Martin.

quote:

Considering the fact that the Coleman campaign has been lodging more challenges than Franken has, this upcoming increase in the apparent Coleman lead just might be the whole point. By jettisoning some of its own challenges, the Franken team could be shrewdly moving to discredit both the Coleman challenges and those vote-counting methodologies that have had Franken way back, by calling attention to the distorting effect that challenges have had.

And suddenly, people will have to start paying more attention to the Franken camp's methodology, which attempts to track the opinions of the local election officials at the sites of the ballot challenges -- a method that now has Al ahead by 22 votes.

http://tpmelectioncentral(...)vote-challenge_m.php

quote:

Sources: Caroline Kennedy asks about Clinton Senate seat

NEW YORK (CNN) – Caroline Kennedy has called New York Gov. David Paterson to ask about the Senate seat to be vacated by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton if she is confirmed as secretary of state in the new Barack Obama administration, Democratic sources tell CNN.

One Democratic source close to the Kennedy family confirmed that Kennedy has had conversations with Paterson and "is interested to say the least" about discussing the Senate vacancy. This source says Kennedy has asked a tight circle of other family friends and political advisers for advice.

A second source, who has knowledge of Kennedy's conversation with Paterson, tells CNN that Kennedy reached out to inquire about the responsibilities and impact such a move would have if she were selected by the governor to fill the position.

In an interview Friday with CNN affiliate NY1 News, Paterson added his own confirmation, saying, "I took a call from her Wednesday night but, I'm not going to talk about the conversation, that just adds more speculation and I don't think it's particularly relevant."

Asked if Kennedy expressed interest in the seat, Paterson replied, "We talked about a number of things, the seat did come up in the conversation."

Paterson added that he was not going to discuss anyone specifically that he might consider to fill the seat if Clinton vacates it to become secretary of state.

"I'm not talking about lists, individuals or anything like that. That just, in my opinion, obfuscates the process," Paterson said.

quote:

Franken Claims to Have Lead of 35-50 Votes

Missed this story yesterday, but:

Al Franken’s campaign is as close to declaring victory as it has throughout the weeks-long recount in the Minnesota Senate race.

Franken’s campaign attorney Marc Elias said he expects Franken to be leading Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) by “between 35 and 50 votes” when the Canvassing Board finishes counting all the disputed ballots on Tuesday.

“On Tuesday, I will stand before you with that work completed. Al Franken will have a lead of between 35 and 50 votes. And, at some point not too long after that, Al Franken will stand before you as the senator-elect from Minnesota,” Elias said at a press conference Saturday.

That would be a 35-50 point lead after withdrawn challenges are reconciled in the state's totals, a process that will certianly result in a net gain for Norm Coleman -- but not enough, it seems, to place him back ahead of Franken. For that, he'll need to have some luck with either the counting of absentee ballots (unlikely -- those are more likely to help Franken) or the un-counting of potential duplicate ballots.

Should we take the Franken campaign's claims seriously? In this case, I think so. Number one, they'll have a lot of egg on their face if they're wrong, at a time and place when credibility actually somewhat matters. Number two, Franken's range is more conservative than the Star Tribune's guess of a 78-vote lead for him. And number three, the Coleman people aren't really pushing back on the specifics of Franken's claim. They say they'll have a lead once the recount is "fully completed" -- what else are they going to say? -- but not that they're leading now, or that they'll be leading after the withdrawn challenges are added to the totals. In other words, they need to find votes somewhere (or find some way to take some of Franken's votes away from him).

Still, it's at least moderately good news for Coleman if Franken's lead is only 35-50 votes, rather than the 78 that the Star Tribune projected. Coleman's path to victory at this point is pretty much that the court mandates a review of duplicate ballots, and that (ii) identifying and removing the duplicates -- which as far as I can tell are going to arise essentially at random during the counting process -- just so happens to help him. The way that the math tends to work out for this stuff, a lead of 35 votes is much easier to overcome than a lead of 70 votes, in somewhat the same way that you're much more likely to have a coin come up heads 4 times in a row than 8 times in a row.

quote:

Op maandag 22 december 2008 23:24 schreef Dr.Daggla het volgende:

[..]

Jezus, wat een verschil.

quote:

Minnesota Senate recount to resume this week

(CNN) — With somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 ballots left to be processed, the recount in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race will resume this week and likely will not be resolved until the end of the month, Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said Sunday.

A unofficial running tally on the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Web site had Democrat Al Franken leading incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman by 251 votes
on Sunday — in a race in which nearly 2.5 million votes were cast — but Ritchie cautioned against pronouncing either candidate ahead until all votes are counted.



"From the first night of the election — election night, November 4 — it has been impossible to say which candidate was leading because it is not known
who's leading until all the ballots are counted," Ritchie said in an interview with CNNRadio.

"The many people who have been making pronouncements about who's ahead and who's behind are not speaking from a knowledge base. They are speculating."

...

quote:

Op dinsdag 23 december 2008 01:09 schreef FritsVanEgters het volgende:

[..]

Wow.
Wat is de bron?


Volgens CNN duurt het nog zeker tot het eind van de maand voor er een definitieve uitslag is.
Zij spreken van 251 stemmen verschil (on-officiële bron).
[..]

quote:

In a brief, unanimous decision handed out earlier this afternoon, the Minnesota Supreme Court denied Norm Coleman's request to prevent certification of the recount until claims regarding alleged double-counted ballots are resolved. Nor will it require any further efforts from the counties in pursuit of such ballots.

The Court decided simply that Coleman hadn't presented enough evidence, essentially challenging him to contest the election if he could come back with more. As we pointed out yesterday, while it is nearly guaranteed that there were at least some instances of double-counting, the same discrepancies could be explained by other phenomena, an Coleman's case relied on what might could best be described as circumstantial evidence.

It now appears almost certain that Al Franken will be certified by the state as the winner of the election at some point in early January. Although Franken's lead over Coleman is narrow -- 46 votes -- the only substantial group of ballots remaining to be counted are rejected absentees. But both campaigns have been operating under the assumption that those absentee ballots are more likely to add to Franken's margin than subtract from it.

Coleman's attorneys, however, have strongly hinted that he will be back in court to contest Franken's victory if and when that result is certified.

quote:

A COMEDIAN who had a walk-on part in the Rutles film spoof of the Beatles is poised to deliver a 60-seat super-majority to the Democrats in the Senate as President Barack Obama consolidates his grip on the levers of power.

Al Franken, 57, a satirist turned Democrat politician, is expected to be proclaimed the winner of the protracted race for the US Senate in Minnesota, in time to give Obama a free hand to appoint a Supreme Court replacement for retiring Justice David Souter without fear of Republican blocking tactics.

If Franken wins, Obama will hold an unassailable majority after Senator Arlen Specter’s sudden defection from the Republicans to the Democrats last week. A 60-seat majority would deprive the Republicans of the ability to scupper appointments and legislation by filibustering.

Norman Coleman, the Republican former senator, last week asked the Minnesota supreme court to count an extra 1,359 ballots, but his own side has all but conceded that Franken will win. “Most of us think that is going to happen,” said Paul Ryan, a Republican congressman.

Hillary Clinton, Obama’s surprise choice for secretary of state, has been mooted as a wild card appointment to the Supreme Court, but she would have to abandon any remaining presidential ambitions – an unlikely prospect.

Franken, a former presenter on Air America, the left-wing radio station, has been uncharacteristically quiet during the six-month recount. He holds a 312-vote lead over Coleman out of a total of nearly 3m.

Tad Devine, a Democrat consultant and friend of Franken, warned that his party’s softly-softly tactics would not continue indefinitely.

“Our side has not kicked into gear yet,” he said. “There has been a deliberate strategy not to make a big deal of the recount but if it drags on into the summer, we could raise the stakes and force the race to a conclusion.”

Franken’s vote will be needed not just for the Supreme Court appointment but also for healthcare reform, earmarked for the autumn. It is ironic for a comedian to wield so much power, Devine noted, “but Franken is certainly comfortable with irony”.

Al’s gags

Franken’s quips include:

“When the president [Bush] said he was against nation-building, I didn’t realise he meant our nation.”

“Why don’t we focus on what Afghan women can do? They can cook, bear children and pray. As I recall, that was fine for our grandmothers.”

“I’m interested in politics for all the wrong reasons – I’m interested in the entertainment value of it.”

quote:

Op vrijdag 8 mei 2009 19:23 schreef rubbereend het volgende:
Hoelang kan dat getouwtrek nog doorgaan?

quote:

Democraten halen 60e Senaatszetel

In de Amerikaanse Senaat hebben de Democraten de belangrijke grens bereikt van zestig zetels.
Het hooggerechtshof in Minnesota oordeelt dat de zetel voor deze staat naar de Democraat Al Franken moet gaan.
De Republikein Coleman legt zich bij de uitspraak van het hof neer.

Met zestig van de honderd Senaatszetels kunnen de Democraten voorkomen dat de Republikeinen via een filibuster wetgeving eindeloos traineren.
De verkiezingen waren in november.Bij de eerste stemmentelling won Franken met een verschil van 215 stemmen.
Door rechtszaken en hertellingen is de uitslag in Minnesota nu pas definitief.