Carry Trade klapt

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Een carry trade is de investeringsconstructie in de valutamarkt.

Bij een carry trade leent men in een valuta waar de rente laag is, om het geld uit te lenen in een valuta waar de rente hoger is. Zo ontvangt de investeerder de 'spread' (verspreiding) tussen de beide rentepercentages. Het bekendste voorbeeld van een carry trade is om geld te lenen in Japan waar de rente laag is (bijvoorbeeld 0,25%). Deze Japanse Yen wisselt men om in bijvoorbeeld Nieuw-Zeelandse dollars om het aldaar uit te lenen tegen 7,25 %. Als de wisselkoers tussen de Yen en de Nieuw-Zeelandse "kiwi dollar" gelijk blijft verdiend de belegger 7 procent over het vermogen.

Het belangrijkste risico is de verandering van de wisselkoers tussen de beide valuta. Een kleine verandering van de wisselkoers kan grote gevolgen hebben voor het resultaat van de carry trades. Indien de handelaren hun carry trades willen terugdraaien ontstaat er een koopdruk op de geleende valuta en verkoopdruk op de valuta waarin ze het geld uitgeleend hebben. Dit zorgt voor extra problemen.

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According to Gary Dorsch of Global Money Trends, the yen carry is a "weapon of mass destruction" of $5.9 trillion, with yen loans another 1.2 trillion dollars on top of it, making Arabian oil wealth or Chinese reserves look small at $1.5 trillion and $1.9 trillion respectively.

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Op vrijdag 24 oktober 2008 12:46 schreef Dagonet het volgende:

[..]

Ja, okay, dat snap ik, maar er storten nu wisselkoersen in? Wat voor effecten heeft dit, komen er bedrijven door op omvallen te staan?

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Op vrijdag 24 oktober 2008 13:12 schreef geenID het volgende:
Dit is al tijden aan de gang, vorig jaar waren er ook een paar aardige volatile dagen.

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G-7 Fails to Halt Yen's Gain After Saying Its Moves `Excessive'

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Group of Seven industrialized nations failed to halt the yen's advance to near a 13-year high against the dollar after expressing concern about the currency's ``excessive volatility.''

The G-7 made an unscheduled statement after a request from Japan, Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said in Tokyo today, adding that his government was ready to act if needed. The G-7 fell short of pledging concerted action to halt the yen's gain.

``Issuing such a statement is a sign of failure to intervene,'' said Eisuke Sakakibara, a professor at Tokyo's Waseda University who was the Finance Ministry's top currency official from 1997 to 1999. ``The Japanese government may have consulted with their counterparts in the EU and the U.S. and they couldn't persuade them to intervene.''

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 6.4 percent today to a 26-year low as the soaring yen erodes earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. The currency has gained as the risk of a global recession and a slump in global stock markets prompted investors to sell assets bought by borrowing in Japan, where interest rates are the lowest among industrial nations.

``We reaffirm our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system,'' the G-7 statement said. ``We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.''

The yen rose to 93.54 per dollar as of 2:52 p.m. in Tokyo from 94.32 late Oct. 24. Japan's currency has climbed 14 percent against the dollar this month and 28 percent versus the euro.

Canon's Profit

Canon, Japan's largest office-equipment maker, reported third-quarter profit fell 21 percent as the surging yen undermined overseas revenue.

``The Japanese authorities must have thought it was important to address this as a shared G-7 concern,'' said Tomoko Fujii, head of economics and strategy at Bank of America Corp. in Tokyo. ``Otherwise the markets would think this is a Japan- specific problem that would make any unilateral'' selling of the yen by Japan less effective.

A study published this month by Marcel Fratzscher, an economist at the European Central Bank, of reaction to the group's statements since 1975 found that it is most successful when viewed as credible by investors and its message is supported by every official and repeated in the weeks after the meeting.

The statements also wield power if the governments and central banks back up their words with intervention in the markets, the study said.

Aso's Plan

Separately Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso said he'd draft measures to help counter the financial crisis.

The proposals Japan's government is considering include a resumption of state purchases of shares owned by Japan's banks, said Hakuo Yanagisawa, a ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker charged with dealing with the financial crisis. The decline in the stock market has eroded the value of shares banks hold as part of their capital.

Japanese banks tumbled on the Tokyo Stock Exchange today after media reports said they may seek to raise extra capital to offset unrealized losses on shareholdings. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. sank more than 10 percent.

Japan hasn't sold its currency since March 2004 when the yen was trading at 103.42 against the dollar. The Bank of Japan, acting on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, sold 14.8 trillion yen ($157 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003.