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Die zonnestorm. Is dat nou een reele dreiging? Hoe groot is de kans werkelijk dat er zoiets gebeurd?

Je moet er niet aan denken dat alle elektriciteit ineens uitvalt.
A man said to the universe: 'Sir, I exist.'
'However', replied the universe. 'This fact has not created in me a sense of obligation.'
  Moderator zondag 21 november 2010 @ 21:52:08 #277
45833 crew  Fogel
pi_88992470
quote:
1s.gif Op vrijdag 12 november 2010 01:53 schreef -CRASH- het volgende:
Misschien wel een handig weetje....
Als er een waarschuwing komt met Kp 7 dan zou het kunnen
dat je het poollicht aan de lage noordelijke horizon
kunt zien. Vanaf Kp8 zijn de kansen groter...
En bij Kp9 ga dan gerust naar buiten en kijk omhoog.

Op dit moment: Kp4
Komende 24 uur max.: Kp4
[ afbeelding ]
Kp3 is voor mij al genoeg, maar dan moet het eens ophouden met bewolkt zijn op de "goede dagen"...
I'm surrounded by morons!
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pi_89004206
quote:
Die zonnestorm. Is dat nou een reele dreiging? Hoe groot is de kans werkelijk dat er zoiets gebeurd?
Ik denk dat het een low frequency / high impact risico is. Sinds het electrische tijdperk is het al een paar keer voorgekomen, de meest bekende waren in 1859 (het Carrington event) en 1989.

Lomp gezegd zou je op basis van de afgelopen 200 jaar kunnen zeggen dat eens in de honderd jaar de aarde geraakt wordt door een storm die schade doet. Hoe groot de schade dan is hangt af van de kracht van de storm en of het een echte voltreffen of een schampschot is. Op zich is dat dus een kleine kans - voor een individueel jaar misschien wel minder dan 1%. Het probleem is alleen dat als die storm van 1859 nu herhaald zou worden, de schade zo groot zou zijn, dat de beschaving zoals we die kennen voorlopig even afgelopen is. We weten dat die stormen mogelijk zijn, dus het is een kwestie van wachten tot het weer gebeurt.

Tijdens een zonne-maximum is de kans het grootst, maar je zult net zien dat tijdens een maximum alle CME's de aarde missen, en dat we tijdens een zonne-minimum een voltreffer krijgen (Murphy's law). Vergelijk het met "the big one" (aardbeving in Californie); iedereen weet dat 'ie er aan zit te komen, maar pas achteraf weet je waar en wanneer het precies is geworden. Maar omdat de impact zo groot kan zijn, kan de mensheid zich er maar beter op voorbereiden.
  Moderator maandag 22 november 2010 @ 10:30:34 #279
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_89004968
quote:
The tension was just too great. On Nov. 21st around 1600 UT, a twisted filament of solar magnetism suddenly untwisted, producing a towering eruption off the sun's northwestern limb.



Earth was not in the line of fire. No geomagnetic storms or auroras are expected as a result of the blast. Moreover, now that the filament has relaxed, it poses little threat for future eruptions. There is, however, another filament that bears watching.
pi_89011735
quote:
1s.gif Op maandag 22 november 2010 09:56 schreef Ared het volgende:
[Ik denk dat het een low frequency / high impact risico is. Sinds het electrische tijdperk is het al een paar keer voorgekomen, de meest bekende waren in 1859 (het Carrington event) en 1989.

Lomp gezegd zou je op basis van de afgelopen 200 jaar kunnen zeggen dat eens in de honderd jaar de aarde geraakt wordt door een storm die schade doet. Hoe groot de schade dan is hangt af van de kracht van de storm en of het een echte voltreffen of een schampschot is. Op zich is dat dus een kleine kans - voor een individueel jaar misschien wel minder dan 1%. Het probleem is alleen dat als die storm van 1859 nu herhaald zou worden, de schade zo groot zou zijn, dat de beschaving zoals we die kennen voorlopig even afgelopen is. We weten dat die stormen mogelijk zijn, dus het is een kwestie van wachten tot het weer gebeurt.

Tijdens een zonne-maximum is de kans het grootst, maar je zult net zien dat tijdens een maximum alle CME's de aarde missen, en dat we tijdens een zonne-minimum een voltreffer krijgen (Murphy's law). Vergelijk het met "the big one" (aardbeving in Californie); iedereen weet dat 'ie er aan zit te komen, maar pas achteraf weet je waar en wanneer het precies is geworden. Maar omdat de impact zo groot kan zijn, kan de mensheid zich er maar beter op voorbereiden.
Aha. Dat is wel ongeveer de richting die ik vermoedde ja. Punt is alleen dat je je als mensheid dus niet op al die rampen kan voorbereiden, daar zijn het er te veel voor, en is de kans te klein.

We zijn ooit gewoon de lul, en da is het hopen dat het meevalt.
A man said to the universe: 'Sir, I exist.'
'However', replied the universe. 'This fact has not created in me a sense of obligation.'
  Moderator woensdag 1 december 2010 @ 11:46:30 #281
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_89378430
quote:
POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION:

A magnetic filament in the sun's northeastern quadrant erupted during the late hours of Nov. 30th. Click on the image to play a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory--and pay attention to the bright splash below the movie arrow:

The blast produced a B-class solar flare and hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft suggest that the cloud might be heading toward Earth. Further analysis is required, however, to confirm that the CME is coming our way. Stay tuned for updates.
  woensdag 1 december 2010 @ 12:47:42 #282
128015 BONG4002
Account gesloten.
pi_89381042
Zeer interessant, volg dit nieuws al een tijdje maar het is niet te hopen dat zoiets daadwerkelijk gaat gebeuren :).
Dit account heb ik opgeheven en ga verder onder een andere naam.
  Moderator donderdag 2 december 2010 @ 10:08:05 #283
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_89419769
Hij is dus earth directed :)

quote:
NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of geomagnetic activity on Dec. 3rd when the CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
  Moderator dinsdag 7 december 2010 @ 11:53:23 #284
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_89626458
quote:
EPIC BLAST: As predicted, the a "mega-filament" of solar magnetism erupted on Dec. 6th, producing a blast of epic proportions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action as the 700,000-km long structure lifted off the stellar surface and--snap!!--hurled itself into space.

The eruption produced a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the STEREO-A spacecraft: video. Earth was not in the line of fire; the cloud should sail wide of our planet. Earth-effects might be limited to pretty pictures.
Wat als die "epic-blast" wel earth directed was geweest?
  Moderator dinsdag 7 december 2010 @ 11:54:27 #285
8781 crew  Frutsel
  Moderator dinsdag 14 december 2010 @ 15:37:24 #286
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_89920420
Stunning 'solar tsunami' gives scientists new clues about what makes the sun explode

It was the breathtaking solar event that sparked spectacular displays of Northern Lights across much of the northern hemisphere.

In August the sun's surface suddenly erupted and blasted tons of plasma - ionised atoms - into interplanetary space. It took two days for the atoms to travel the 93million miles to Earth.

NASA captured images of the event, called a coronal mass ejection, from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Now scientists believe the startling images may have fundamentally changed how we think about the sun’s surface.


Magnetic map: Locations of key events are labeled in this extreme ultraviolet image of the sun, obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory eruption of August 1st

Nasa experts say that what was dubbed a solar tsunami’ shows that explosions on the sun are not isolated events but are interconnected by magnetism over huge distances.

Solar flares, tsunamis, coronal mass ejections can go off all at once, hundreds of thousands of miles apart, in a massively complex concert of mayhem.

Karel Schrijver of Lockheed Martin's Solar and Astrophysics Lab said: ‘The August 1st event really opened our eyes. We see that solar storms can be global events, playing out on scales we scarcely imagined before.’

Alongside fellow Lockheed-Martin solar physicist Alan Tite they studied data recorded by both the SDO and twin STEREO spacecraft.

SDO provides better-than-HD quality views of the sun at a variety of wavelengths.

Title said: ‘To predict eruptions we can no longer focus on the magnetic fields of isolated active regions. We have to know the surface magnetic field of practically the entire sun.’

The scientists have prepared a report on their theory for the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR). It shows how they broke down what has become known as the ‘Great Eruption’ into more than a dozen significant shock waves, flares, filament eruptions, and coronal mass ejections spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude and 28 hours of time.


The stunning picture of the Sun erupting in 'solar tsunami' which sparked incredible Northern Lights displays across the northern hemisphere in August

It was only when they plotted the events on a map of the sun's magnetic field that they realised how they related to one another. It is the first time it has been proved that there is a link between flares on the sun.

The discovery has huge implications beyond astronomy as many experts believe that a solar tsunami similar to the one in August could one day cause havoc with satellite communication systems, electric power grids and aircraft.

When a coronal mass ejection reaches Earth, it interacts with our planet's magnetic field, potentially creating a geomagnetic storm. Solar particles stream down the field lines toward Earth's poles.

Rodney Viereck of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, said: ‘The whole-sun approach could lead to breakthroughs in predicting solar activity.

‘This in turn would provide improved forecasts to our customers such as electric power grid operators and commercial airlines, who could take action to protect their systems and ensure the safety of passengers and crew.’

‘We're still sorting out cause and effect,' says Schrijver. ‘Was the event one big chain reaction, in which one eruption triggered another--bang, bang, bang--in sequence? Or did everything go off together as a consequence of some greater change in the sun's global magnetic field?
pi_90499830
quote:
The strange case of solar flares and radioactive elements
When researchers found an unusual linkage between solar flares and the inner life of radioactive elements on Earth, it touched off a scientific detective investigation that could end up protecting the lives of space-walking astronauts and maybe rewriting some of the assumptions of physics.

L.A. Cicero

Peter Sturrock, professor emeritus of applied physics
BY DAN STOBER

It's a mystery that presented itself unexpectedly: The radioactive decay of some elements sitting quietly in laboratories on Earth seemed to be influenced by activities inside the sun, 93 million miles away.

Is this possible?

Researchers from Stanford and Purdue University believe it is. But their explanation of how it happens opens the door to yet another mystery.

There is even an outside chance that this unexpected effect is brought about by a previously unknown particle emitted by the sun. "That would be truly remarkable," said Peter Sturrock, Stanford professor emeritus of applied physics and an expert on the inner workings of the sun.

The story begins, in a sense, in classrooms around the world, where students are taught that the rate of decay of a specific radioactive material is a constant. This concept is relied upon, for example, when anthropologists use carbon-14 to date ancient artifacts and when doctors determine the proper dose of radioactivity to treat a cancer patient.

Random numbers

But that assumption was challenged in an unexpected way by a group of researchers from Purdue University who at the time were more interested in random numbers than nuclear decay. (Scientists use long strings of random numbers for a variety of calculations, but they are difficult to produce, since the process used to produce the numbers has an influence on the outcome.)

Ephraim Fischbach, a physics professor at Purdue, was looking into the rate of radioactive decay of several isotopes as a possible source of random numbers generated without any human input. (A lump of radioactive cesium-137, for example, may decay at a steady rate overall, but individual atoms within the lump will decay in an unpredictable, random pattern. Thus the timing of the random ticks of a Geiger counter placed near the cesium might be used to generate random numbers.)

As the researchers pored through published data on specific isotopes, they found disagreement in the measured decay rates odd for supposed physical constants.

Checking data collected at Brookhaven National Laboratory on Long Island and the Federal Physical and Technical Institute in Germany, they came across something even more surprising: long-term observation of the decay rate of silicon-32 and radium-226 seemed to show a small seasonal variation. The decay rate was ever so slightly faster in winter than in summer.

Was this fluctuation real, or was it merely a glitch in the equipment used to measure the decay, induced by the change of seasons, with the accompanying changes in temperature and humidity?

"Everyone thought it must be due to experimental mistakes, because we're all brought up to believe that decay rates are constant," Sturrock said.

The sun speaks

On Dec 13, 2006, the sun itself provided a crucial clue, when a solar flare sent a stream of particles and radiation toward Earth. Purdue nuclear engineer Jere Jenkins, while measuring the decay rate of manganese-54, a short-lived isotope used in medical diagnostics, noticed that the rate dropped slightly during the flare, a decrease that started about a day and a half before the flare.

If this apparent relationship between flares and decay rates proves true, it could lead to a method of predicting solar flares prior to their occurrence, which could help prevent damage to satellites and electric grids, as well as save the lives of astronauts in space.

The decay-rate aberrations that Jenkins noticed occurred during the middle of the night in Indiana meaning that something produced by the sun had traveled all the way through the Earth to reach Jenkins' detectors. What could the flare send forth that could have such an effect?

Jenkins and Fischbach guessed that the culprits in this bit of decay-rate mischief were probably solar neutrinos, the almost weightless particles famous for flying at almost the speed of light through the physical world humans, rocks, oceans or planets with virtually no interaction with anything.

Then, in a series of papers published in Astroparticle Physics, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research and Space Science Reviews, Jenkins, Fischbach and their colleagues showed that the observed variations in decay rates were highly unlikely to have come from environmental influences on the detection systems.

Reason for suspicion

Their findings strengthened the argument that the strange swings in decay rates were caused by neutrinos from the sun. The swings seemed to be in synch with the Earth's elliptical orbit, with the decay rates oscillating as the Earth came closer to the sun (where it would be exposed to more neutrinos) and then moving away.

So there was good reason to suspect the sun, but could it be proved?

Enter Peter Sturrock, Stanford professor emeritus of applied physics and an expert on the inner workings of the sun. While on a visit to the National Solar Observatory in Arizona, Sturrock was handed copies of the scientific journal articles written by the Purdue researchers.

Sturrock knew from long experience that the intensity of the barrage of neutrinos the sun continuously sends racing toward Earth varies on a regular basis as the sun itself revolves and shows a different face, like a slower version of the revolving light on a police car. His advice to Purdue: Look for evidence that the changes in radioactive decay on Earth vary with the rotation of the sun. "That's what I suggested. And that's what we have done."

A surprise

Going back to take another look at the decay data from the Brookhaven lab, the researchers found a recurring pattern of 33 days. It was a bit of a surprise, given that most solar observations show a pattern of about 28 days the rotation rate of the surface of the sun.

The explanation? The core of the sun where nuclear reactions produce neutrinos apparently spins more slowly than the surface we see. "It may seem counter-intuitive, but it looks as if the core rotates more slowly than the rest of the sun," Sturrock said.

All of the evidence points toward a conclusion that the sun is "communicating" with radioactive isotopes on Earth, said Fischbach.

But there's one rather large question left unanswered. No one knows how neutrinos could interact with radioactive materials to change their rate of decay.

"It doesn't make sense according to conventional ideas," Fischbach said. Jenkins whimsically added, "What we're suggesting is that something that doesn't really interact with anything is changing something that can't be changed."

"It's an effect that no one yet understands," agreed Sturrock. "Theorists are starting to say, 'What's going on?' But that's what the evidence points to. It's a challenge for the physicists and a challenge for the solar people too."

If the mystery particle is not a neutrino, "It would have to be something we don't know about, an unknown particle that is also emitted by the sun and has this effect, and that would be even more remarkable," Sturrock said.

Chantal Jolagh, a science-writing intern at the Stanford News Service, contributed to this story.

bron
Kleine geheimen dienen beschermd te worden.
Grote geheimen worden beschermd door publiek ongeloof.
pi_92353736
AURORA ALERT:
A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Feb. 4th, sparking a G2-class (Kp=6) geomagnetic storm, in progress. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially during the hours around local midnight.



Vers van de pers

Foto's: from Cristina Albuerne of Gimsøy, Lofoten, Norway


Foto: from Beate Kiil Karlsen of Norway
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tvp
"An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people."
pi_92586732
quote:
NASA revises the sunspot prediction down again

Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.

Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and there’s been little change from last month in the three major solar indexes plotted by the Space Weather Prediction Center:
Ok, het verwachte aantal zonnevlekken tijdens het verwachte maximum in 2013 wordt dus weer naar beneden bijgesteld? Minder zonnevlekken, minder zonneactiviteit, meer kou?
meer vulkaanuitbarstingen = meer kou?
sterke la nina in 2011 = meer kou?
drie van de vijf komende winters kunnen kouder zijn = meer kou?

Kan aan mij liggen, maar alle signalen wijzen op een KOUDEGOLF :{
Ow..2012 komt er ook nog aan :P
pi_92592829
3 van de 5 koudere winters was toch voor de VS bestemd !!!
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pi_92593324
quote:
1s.gif Op donderdag 10 februari 2011 16:19 schreef -CRASH- het volgende:
3 van de 5 koudere winters was toch voor de VS bestemd !!!
wij zijn een puppet van de VS :P
pi_92593760
quote:
6s.gif Op donderdag 10 februari 2011 16:30 schreef Frutsel het volgende:

[..]

wij zijn een puppet van de VS :P
Kwa politieke (afghanistan) beslissingen. geef ik je geen ongelijk.
Maar vanwege de weersverwachtingen...................
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pi_92688847
De zon spuugt :')

Klikbaar

DODGING PLASMA BULLETS:
The remains of old sunspot complex 1147-1149 are rotating over the eastern limb today. Although the region is in an advanced state of decay, it's not dead yet. During the late hours of Feb. 11th, a plasma bullet came rocketing out of the region's unstable core. Watch the movie--but don't blink, because it's fast:

The eruption was not geoeffective. Earth's magnetic field will remain undisturbed as the 'bullet' sails wide-left of our planet over the weekend.

This region has been spitting plasma and crackling with flares since it first emerged more than a month ago on Jan. 10th. Remarkably, however, every eruption so far has missed Earth. Why? It's just luck: Most of the blasts occurred while AR1147-1149 was on the far side of the sun. Statistically speaking, a plasma bullet in our direction may be overdue. Stay tuned.

www.spaceweather.com
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  zondag 13 februari 2011 @ 20:16:48 #295
330648 zenkelly
Curious nature
pi_92732948
BEHEMOTH SUNSPOT 1158: Sunspot 1158 is growing rapidly (48 hour movie) and crackling with C-class solar flares. The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.

www.spaceweather.com
Crazy as Always...met vleugels natuurlijk..;-0
pi_92752678
quote:
1s.gif Op zondag 13 februari 2011 20:16 schreef zenkelly het volgende:
BEHEMOTH SUNSPOT 1158: Sunspot 1158 is growing rapidly (48 hour movie) and crackling with C-class solar flares. The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.

www.spaceweather.com
Van een C-Class maar een M-Class

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: On Feb. 13th at 1738 UT, sunspot 1158 unleashed the strongest solar flare of the year so far, an M6.6-class-category blast. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded an intense flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation, circled below:


The eruption produced a loud blast of radio waves heard in shortwave receivers around the dayside of our planet. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded these sounds at 19 to 21 MHz. "This was some of the strongest radio bursting of the new solar cycle," he says. "What a great solar day."

Preliminary coronagraph data from STEREO-A and SOHO agree that the explosion produced a fast but not particularly bright coronal mass ejection (CME). The cloud will likely hit Earth's magnetic field on or about Feb. 15th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

The source of this activity, sunspot 1158 is growing rapidly (48 hour movie). The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. More Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.

[ Bericht 16% gewijzigd door -CRASH- op 14-02-2011 01:11:02 ]
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  Moderator dinsdag 15 februari 2011 @ 19:05:00 #297
8781 crew  Frutsel
pi_92838942
quote:
quote:
It might cause some geometric storms erm... geomagnetic storms
:+

Maar we zullen het wel zien. Hopelijk is het helder weer, dan zullen we het zeker zien.
(en wat een prutser, niet eens wat op kunnen nemen, maar met een camera zijn beeldscherm filmen :X )
Als het niet met een hamer te repareren is, is het een elektrisch probleem.
pi_92839071
Er is ook een waarschuwing voor "extreem ruimteweer" :P

Sterrenwacht waarschuwt voor "extreem ruimteweer"

Bij de Koninklijke Sterrenwacht (KSB) zijn afgelopen nacht de automatische alarmsystemen in werking getreden: op de Zon is een extreme zonnevlam waargenomen. Dat meldt de KSB, die waarschuwt voor een mogelijke impact voor onze planeet. De vorige zonnevlam van die grootte dateert van december 2006. Sommigen opperden in 2009 zelfs dat de Zon zogenaamd "dood" zou zijn. Maar niets is minder waar, aldus de KSB. Volgens de gespecialiseerde website spaceweater.com deed zich de eerste zogenaamde "x-flare" voor van de nieuwe zonnecyclus (die 11 jaar duurt), de 24ste cyclus. De piek was om 02.56 uur Belgische tijd.



De KSB waarschuwt op basis van satellietgegevens, onder andere van de Belgische Proba-2 satelliet, dat een plasmawolk zich richting Aarde voortbeweegt met een vermoedelijke snelheid van 1.000 km/s. Die wolk zal de Aarde donderdag treffen. Een satelliet die zich vlak voor de Aarde in het zicht van de Zon bevindt heeft ook reeds een stroom van energetische deeltjes waargenomen. Voorlopig is het stormniveau niet bereikt, voegt de KSB eraan toe.

Noorderlicht
Het ruimteweerteam moet nu in de eerste plaats de magnetische structuur van de wolk proberen te achterhalen. Die bepaalt hoe het magnetisch schild van de Aarde op de impact zal reageren. Als een aantal voorwaarden zijn voldaan, kunnen we misschien donderdag het noorderlicht waarnemen, zegt de Sterrenwacht. Extreem ruimteweer kan satellieten doen uitvallen en kan gevolgen hebben voor de stroomvoorziening op Aarde.

Bron Hln
Weer of geen weer, altijd actueel www.onweer-online.nl
  dinsdag 15 februari 2011 @ 22:29:47 #300
330648 zenkelly
Curious nature
pi_92843497
Als de plasmastorm zich met ong. 1000 km/p sec voortbeweegt en de afstand tussen aarde en zon 150 miljoen kilometer = de verwachte aankomsttijd dus 20.56u Nederlandse tijd op 16 februari, dus. Ben benieuwd of deze berekening gaat kloppen... :?
Crazy as Always...met vleugels natuurlijk..;-0
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