Kp3 is voor mij al genoeg, maar dan moet het eens ophouden met bewolkt zijn op de "goede dagen"...quote:Op vrijdag 12 november 2010 01:53 schreef -CRASH- het volgende:
Misschien wel een handig weetje....
Als er een waarschuwing komt met Kp 7 dan zou het kunnen
dat je het poollicht aan de lage noordelijke horizon
kunt zien. Vanaf Kp8 zijn de kansen groter...
En bij Kp9 ga dan gerust naar buiten en kijk omhoog.
Op dit moment: Kp4
Komende 24 uur max.: Kp4
[ afbeelding ]
Ik denk dat het een low frequency / high impact risico is. Sinds het electrische tijdperk is het al een paar keer voorgekomen, de meest bekende waren in 1859 (het Carrington event) en 1989.quote:Die zonnestorm. Is dat nou een reele dreiging? Hoe groot is de kans werkelijk dat er zoiets gebeurd?
quote:The tension was just too great. On Nov. 21st around 1600 UT, a twisted filament of solar magnetism suddenly untwisted, producing a towering eruption off the sun's northwestern limb.
Earth was not in the line of fire. No geomagnetic storms or auroras are expected as a result of the blast. Moreover, now that the filament has relaxed, it poses little threat for future eruptions. There is, however, another filament that bears watching.
Aha. Dat is wel ongeveer de richting die ik vermoedde ja. Punt is alleen dat je je als mensheid dus niet op al die rampen kan voorbereiden, daar zijn het er te veel voor, en is de kans te klein.quote:Op maandag 22 november 2010 09:56 schreef Ared het volgende:
[Ik denk dat het een low frequency / high impact risico is. Sinds het electrische tijdperk is het al een paar keer voorgekomen, de meest bekende waren in 1859 (het Carrington event) en 1989.
Lomp gezegd zou je op basis van de afgelopen 200 jaar kunnen zeggen dat eens in de honderd jaar de aarde geraakt wordt door een storm die schade doet. Hoe groot de schade dan is hangt af van de kracht van de storm en of het een echte voltreffen of een schampschot is. Op zich is dat dus een kleine kans - voor een individueel jaar misschien wel minder dan 1%. Het probleem is alleen dat als die storm van 1859 nu herhaald zou worden, de schade zo groot zou zijn, dat de beschaving zoals we die kennen voorlopig even afgelopen is. We weten dat die stormen mogelijk zijn, dus het is een kwestie van wachten tot het weer gebeurt.
Tijdens een zonne-maximum is de kans het grootst, maar je zult net zien dat tijdens een maximum alle CME's de aarde missen, en dat we tijdens een zonne-minimum een voltreffer krijgen (Murphy's law). Vergelijk het met "the big one" (aardbeving in Californie); iedereen weet dat 'ie er aan zit te komen, maar pas achteraf weet je waar en wanneer het precies is geworden. Maar omdat de impact zo groot kan zijn, kan de mensheid zich er maar beter op voorbereiden.
quote:POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION:
A magnetic filament in the sun's northeastern quadrant erupted during the late hours of Nov. 30th. Click on the image to play a movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory--and pay attention to the bright splash below the movie arrow:
The blast produced a B-class solar flare and hurled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Preliminary coronagraph images from NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft suggest that the cloud might be heading toward Earth. Further analysis is required, however, to confirm that the CME is coming our way. Stay tuned for updates.
quote:NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of geomagnetic activity on Dec. 3rd when the CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Wat als die "epic-blast" wel earth directed was geweest?quote:EPIC BLAST: As predicted, the a "mega-filament" of solar magnetism erupted on Dec. 6th, producing a blast of epic proportions. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action as the 700,000-km long structure lifted off the stellar surface and--snap!!--hurled itself into space.
The eruption produced a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) observed by the STEREO-A spacecraft: video. Earth was not in the line of fire; the cloud should sail wide of our planet. Earth-effects might be limited to pretty pictures.
bronquote:The strange case of solar flares and radioactive elements
When researchers found an unusual linkage between solar flares and the inner life of radioactive elements on Earth, it touched off a scientific detective investigation that could end up protecting the lives of space-walking astronauts and maybe rewriting some of the assumptions of physics.
L.A. Cicero
Peter Sturrock, professor emeritus of applied physics
BY DAN STOBER
It's a mystery that presented itself unexpectedly: The radioactive decay of some elements sitting quietly in laboratories on Earth seemed to be influenced by activities inside the sun, 93 million miles away.
Is this possible?
Researchers from Stanford and Purdue University believe it is. But their explanation of how it happens opens the door to yet another mystery.
There is even an outside chance that this unexpected effect is brought about by a previously unknown particle emitted by the sun. "That would be truly remarkable," said Peter Sturrock, Stanford professor emeritus of applied physics and an expert on the inner workings of the sun.
The story begins, in a sense, in classrooms around the world, where students are taught that the rate of decay of a specific radioactive material is a constant. This concept is relied upon, for example, when anthropologists use carbon-14 to date ancient artifacts and when doctors determine the proper dose of radioactivity to treat a cancer patient.
Random numbers
But that assumption was challenged in an unexpected way by a group of researchers from Purdue University who at the time were more interested in random numbers than nuclear decay. (Scientists use long strings of random numbers for a variety of calculations, but they are difficult to produce, since the process used to produce the numbers has an influence on the outcome.)
Ephraim Fischbach, a physics professor at Purdue, was looking into the rate of radioactive decay of several isotopes as a possible source of random numbers generated without any human input. (A lump of radioactive cesium-137, for example, may decay at a steady rate overall, but individual atoms within the lump will decay in an unpredictable, random pattern. Thus the timing of the random ticks of a Geiger counter placed near the cesium might be used to generate random numbers.)
As the researchers pored through published data on specific isotopes, they found disagreement in the measured decay rates odd for supposed physical constants.
Checking data collected at Brookhaven National Laboratory on Long Island and the Federal Physical and Technical Institute in Germany, they came across something even more surprising: long-term observation of the decay rate of silicon-32 and radium-226 seemed to show a small seasonal variation. The decay rate was ever so slightly faster in winter than in summer.
Was this fluctuation real, or was it merely a glitch in the equipment used to measure the decay, induced by the change of seasons, with the accompanying changes in temperature and humidity?
"Everyone thought it must be due to experimental mistakes, because we're all brought up to believe that decay rates are constant," Sturrock said.
The sun speaks
On Dec 13, 2006, the sun itself provided a crucial clue, when a solar flare sent a stream of particles and radiation toward Earth. Purdue nuclear engineer Jere Jenkins, while measuring the decay rate of manganese-54, a short-lived isotope used in medical diagnostics, noticed that the rate dropped slightly during the flare, a decrease that started about a day and a half before the flare.
If this apparent relationship between flares and decay rates proves true, it could lead to a method of predicting solar flares prior to their occurrence, which could help prevent damage to satellites and electric grids, as well as save the lives of astronauts in space.
The decay-rate aberrations that Jenkins noticed occurred during the middle of the night in Indiana meaning that something produced by the sun had traveled all the way through the Earth to reach Jenkins' detectors. What could the flare send forth that could have such an effect?
Jenkins and Fischbach guessed that the culprits in this bit of decay-rate mischief were probably solar neutrinos, the almost weightless particles famous for flying at almost the speed of light through the physical world humans, rocks, oceans or planets with virtually no interaction with anything.
Then, in a series of papers published in Astroparticle Physics, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research and Space Science Reviews, Jenkins, Fischbach and their colleagues showed that the observed variations in decay rates were highly unlikely to have come from environmental influences on the detection systems.
Reason for suspicion
Their findings strengthened the argument that the strange swings in decay rates were caused by neutrinos from the sun. The swings seemed to be in synch with the Earth's elliptical orbit, with the decay rates oscillating as the Earth came closer to the sun (where it would be exposed to more neutrinos) and then moving away.
So there was good reason to suspect the sun, but could it be proved?
Enter Peter Sturrock, Stanford professor emeritus of applied physics and an expert on the inner workings of the sun. While on a visit to the National Solar Observatory in Arizona, Sturrock was handed copies of the scientific journal articles written by the Purdue researchers.
Sturrock knew from long experience that the intensity of the barrage of neutrinos the sun continuously sends racing toward Earth varies on a regular basis as the sun itself revolves and shows a different face, like a slower version of the revolving light on a police car. His advice to Purdue: Look for evidence that the changes in radioactive decay on Earth vary with the rotation of the sun. "That's what I suggested. And that's what we have done."
A surprise
Going back to take another look at the decay data from the Brookhaven lab, the researchers found a recurring pattern of 33 days. It was a bit of a surprise, given that most solar observations show a pattern of about 28 days the rotation rate of the surface of the sun.
The explanation? The core of the sun where nuclear reactions produce neutrinos apparently spins more slowly than the surface we see. "It may seem counter-intuitive, but it looks as if the core rotates more slowly than the rest of the sun," Sturrock said.
All of the evidence points toward a conclusion that the sun is "communicating" with radioactive isotopes on Earth, said Fischbach.
But there's one rather large question left unanswered. No one knows how neutrinos could interact with radioactive materials to change their rate of decay.
"It doesn't make sense according to conventional ideas," Fischbach said. Jenkins whimsically added, "What we're suggesting is that something that doesn't really interact with anything is changing something that can't be changed."
"It's an effect that no one yet understands," agreed Sturrock. "Theorists are starting to say, 'What's going on?' But that's what the evidence points to. It's a challenge for the physicists and a challenge for the solar people too."
If the mystery particle is not a neutrino, "It would have to be something we don't know about, an unknown particle that is also emitted by the sun and has this effect, and that would be even more remarkable," Sturrock said.
Chantal Jolagh, a science-writing intern at the Stanford News Service, contributed to this story.
Ok, het verwachte aantal zonnevlekken tijdens het verwachte maximum in 2013 wordt dus weer naar beneden bijgesteld? Minder zonnevlekken, minder zonneactiviteit, meer kou?quote:NASA revises the sunspot prediction down again
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.
Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and there’s been little change from last month in the three major solar indexes plotted by the Space Weather Prediction Center:
wij zijn een puppet van de VSquote:Op donderdag 10 februari 2011 16:19 schreef -CRASH- het volgende:
3 van de 5 koudere winters was toch voor de VS bestemd !!!
Kwa politieke (afghanistan) beslissingen. geef ik je geen ongelijk.quote:
Van een C-Class maar een M-Classquote:Op zondag 13 februari 2011 20:16 schreef zenkelly het volgende:
BEHEMOTH SUNSPOT 1158: Sunspot 1158 is growing rapidly (48 hour movie) and crackling with C-class solar flares. The active region is now more than 100,000 km wide with at least a dozen Earth-sized dark cores scattered beneath its unstable magnetic canopy. Earth-directed eruptions are likely in the hours ahead.
www.spaceweather.com
quote:Op dinsdag 15 februari 2011 19:05 schreef Frutsel het volgende:
quote:It might cause some geometric storms erm... geomagnetic storms
Forum Opties | |
---|---|
Forumhop: | |
Hop naar: |